Democratic Wild Western Tuesday results thread

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Hillary Clinton won one county in Idaho by one vote.

And Sanders was so close to cracking 80% in both. Ugh.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Hillary Clinton won one county in Idaho by one vote.

And Sanders was so close to cracking 80% in both. Ugh.

Still votes to count in Utah.

[Beet]

The error in the Dan Jones poll in ID (Sanders +2 vs Sanders +57) is almost as large as the Mason-Dixon poll (Clinton +34 vs Sanders +23) in MN. How are they even getting these 50+ point polling errors?

crap like this SHOULD be the nail in the coffin for these garbage pollsters, but alas they'll still putting out garbage in the future,

To be fair, Dan Jones is the only Utah-based pollster, so they're not going to go out of business anytime soon.

Probably because they're polling it as if it's a primary. In 2008, Hillary got 39% in the Utah primary. She also got 38% in the Idaho primary, while getting 17% in the caucus. Hence in retrospect you could have seen these states as very similar even then. For all the complaints about voting in Arizona, Utah switching to a caucus massively helped Bernie. These caucuses are basically just like giant rallies where you go with your friends. Overwhelming peer pressure.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

The error in the Dan Jones poll in ID (Sanders +2 vs Sanders +57) is almost as large as the Mason-Dixon poll (Clinton +34 vs Sanders +23) in MN. How are they even getting these 50+ point polling errors?

crap like this SHOULD be the nail in the coffin for these garbage pollsters, but alas they'll still putting out garbage in the future,

To be fair, Dan Jones is the only Utah-based pollster, so they're not going to go out of business anytime soon.

Probably because they're polling it as if it's a primary. In 2008, Hillary got 39% in the Utah primary. She also got 38% in the Idaho primary, while getting 17% in the caucus. Hence in retrospect you could have seen these states as very similar even then. For all the complaints about voting in Arizona, Utah switching to a caucus massively helped Bernie. These caucuses are basically just like giant rallies where you go with your friends. Overwhelming peer pressure.

LOL I didn't hear any reports about peer pressure in Idaho or Utah, just about how many people supported Sanders

[Gustaf]

Wow, the delegates are looking pretty good for Bernie in Idaho and Utah. Idaho it turns out he probably wins 18-5, and Utah likely 27-6. That's a net of 34 delegates, and certainly well more than cancels out the 15 or so delegate loss in Arizona.

If getting about half of the net delegates you need to catch up with Hillary is a good night I don't want to know what a bad night would be.

[Tender Branson]

Sanders looks to have a solid next 3 weeks ...

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Sanders looks to have a solid next 3 weeks ...

Which will all be negated by NY on the 19th...

[Tender Branson]

Sanders looks to have a solid next 3 weeks ...

Which will all be negated by NY on the 19th...

I know, but it will still be a nice 3 weeks ...

[Wiz in Wis]

Sanders looks to have a solid next 3 weeks ...

Which will all be negated by NY on the 19th...

I know, but it will still be a nice 3 weeks ...

About the same time that Hillary had 8 years ago too. OH, RI, TX (primary), PA... I remember Hills winning all of those... Didn't affect the scoreboard, but it did give those white working class dead-enders a few more weeks of hope. Sadly, they will get Berned again.

Lol puns

[dax00]

Sanders looks to have a solid next 3 weeks ...

Which will all be negated by NY on the 19th...

I wouldn't be so quick to call NY for Hillary

[Tender Branson]

Sanders looks to have a solid next 3 weeks ...

Which will all be negated by NY on the 19th...

I wouldn't be so quick to call NY for Hillary

LOLwhat ?

Sanders might win a few counties in the North, but Clinton will easily win NYC and suburbs.

I would be surprised if she wins by less than 65-35.

[Shadows]

I am hoping Bernie wins files a suit due to Arizona fraud - Under-staffing & so few polling areas, people standing in a line all night - A lot of people give provisional ballot because they ran out of ballots. They don't count provisional ballots.

I can understand that it being closed, many independents were turned away but how come many life long Democrats were turned away because they were surprisingly not registered.

I don't think it is a deliberate effort, but a massacre due to horrible incompetency.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I am hoping Bernie wins files a suit due to Arizona fraud - Under-staffing & so few polling areas, people standing in a line all night - A lot of people give provisional ballot because they ran out of ballots. They don't count provisional ballots.

I can understand that it being closed, many independents were turned away but how come many life long Democrats were turned away because they were surprisingly not registered.

I don't think it is a deliberate effort, but a massacre due to horrible incompetency.

He should sue Maricopa County. It'll be the only productive thing he's contributed to helping other progressives besides himself get elected.

[dax00]

I am hoping Bernie wins files a suit due to Arizona fraud - Under-staffing & so few polling areas, people standing in a line all night - A lot of people give provisional ballot because they ran out of ballots. They don't count provisional ballots.

I can understand that it being closed, many independents were turned away but how come many life long Democrats were turned away because they were surprisingly not registered.

I don't think it is a deliberate effort, but a massacre due to horrible incompetency.

Now then, the issuance of provisional ballots may have limited the counted votes, but one would imagine that there wouldn't be such a significant discrepancy between the make-up of those early enough to receive actual ballots and those who had to do with the provisionals for there to be considerable impact on the delegate count. Their incompetence, intentional or not, may have negatively affected either candidate. And how Hillary seems to have foolishly assumed the nomination, one would also imagine she would not have been so rash as to have orchestrated such a risky maneuver.

[Shadows]

I am hoping Bernie wins files a suit due to Arizona fraud - Under-staffing & so few polling areas, people standing in a line all night - A lot of people give provisional ballot because they ran out of ballots. They don't count provisional ballots.

I can understand that it being closed, many independents were turned away but how come many life long Democrats were turned away because they were surprisingly not registered.

I don't think it is a deliberate effort, but a massacre due to horrible incompetency.

Now then, the issuance of provisional ballots may have limited the counted votes, but one would imagine that there wouldn't be such a significant discrepancy between the make-up of those early enough to receive actual ballots and those who had to do with the provisionals for there to be considerable impact on the delegate count. Their incompetence, intentional or not, may have negatively affected either candidate. And how Hillary seems to have foolishly assumed the nomination, one would also imagine she would not have been so rash as to have orchestrated such a risky maneuver.

I am no saying it has decided a victory or not - But it could have had a big difference in % or somewhat which changes the delegate math.

Clinton won because she swept the early voting - If you consider election day results Sanders won in  most counties - Otherwise he would be worse.

I have heard complains from plenty of Bernie supporters - I am not saying Clinton people were not likely to be affected, they were & Bernie's people got more affected.

Either way it is unfair on both candidates, it's BS & he needs to push it to ensure this nonsense is not getting repeated

[dax00]

I am no saying it has decided a victory or not - But it could have had a big difference in % or somewhat which changes the delegate math.

Clinton won because she swept the early voting - If you consider election day results Sanders won in  most counties - Otherwise he would be worse.

I have heard complains from plenty of Bernie supporters - I am not saying Clinton people were not likely to be affected, they were & Bernie's people got more affected.

Either way it is unfair on both candidates, it's BS & he needs to push it to ensure this nonsense is not getting repeated

I see. Considerably more upset now :/

[Ebsy]

Clinton won Arizona by 18 points. There's no way Sanders won the election day vote.

[RI]

Clinton won Arizona by 18 points. There's no way Sanders won the election day vote.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Sanders is winning 60.3% of the election day vote in Maricopa County. Thing is that 85% of the votes there so far are early votes.

[Skye]

Wow, Clinton lost by a bigger margin than anyone expected in Utah and Idaho. I guess the whole caucus process helped Sanders.

[Tender Branson]

In 3 weeks, the pledged delegate count could be roughly 1.300 Clinton and 1.100 Sanders.

Sanders could close the gap by about 60-100 delegates in the next contests (winning ca. 185 out of the 290 delegates).

It would then be 54% Clinton and 46% Sanders among pledged delegates.

[Holmes]

...and then any gains made are wiped out by New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania a few weeks later.

[Shadows]

...and then any gains made are wiped out by New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania a few weeks later.

Maryland would be bad but NY & PA won't be a blow-out - Sanders will post decent numbers in NY. PA could well be a Sanders win (Strong demographics for Sanders - 80% White, around 4-5% less black than say in Illinois where he tied almost, lesser hispanics). The close process hurts but neither is NY or PA will be a blow-out (MD on the other hand has a higher black population than SC & Alabama)!

[IceSpear]

If Bernie couldn't win an open primary in OH, it's very unlikely he'd win a closed primary in PA.

[IceSpear]

Hillary really cleaned up with the Native American vote. She crushed it in Apache and Navajo. I actually expected Sanders to do well with them.

[Gass3268]

If Bernie couldn't win an open primary in OH, it's very unlikely he'd win a closed primary in PA.

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Will be interesting to see what happens in Western PA.