The Case for North Carolina: A Devil's Advocate Obamargument

[Josh/Devilman88]

This is what I have been saying for a long time but no one believes me. This is a good atricle about how NC has changed:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/03/more_than_you_ever_wanted_to_k.php

[Josh/Devilman88]

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

[Josh/Devilman88]

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Yeah, I do.  I've spent a lot of time talking to people from Democratic areas like Durham, even more time talking to Northern transplants from Wake County, and still more talking to people from traditionally southern areas.  North Carolina's not switching by any stretch of the imagination nor will it be close.  It will be R+10% in even the most Democratic of situations.

I guess we will see.

[Josh/Devilman88]

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.

Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

[Josh/Devilman88]

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.

Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

That's great. That means Guilford County will go Democratic. I go to school in Chapel Hill, and everyone around here is goo goo for Obama. Does that mean he's going to win NC? The best the Dems can do in NC is 45%. It's not trending far to the Democrats. Plus, many of those eastern North Carolina Democrats will not vote for a black man. I've talked to many of them here too, and they support McCain over Obama. I'm glad 90% of the people you talk to daily hate the Republicans, but don't be surprised when NC doesn't go to Obama with 90% of the vote.

I have people come in from all over the state, not just Guilford county.

[Josh/Devilman88]

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.

Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

That's great. That means Guilford County will go Democratic. I go to school in Chapel Hill, and everyone around here is goo goo for Obama. Does that mean he's going to win NC? The best the Dems can do in NC is 45%. It's not trending far to the Democrats. Plus, many of those eastern North Carolina Democrats will not vote for a black man. I've talked to many of them here too, and they support McCain over Obama. I'm glad 90% of the people you talk to daily hate the Republicans, but don't be surprised when NC doesn't go to Obama with 90% of the vote.

I have people come in from all over the state, not just Guilford county.

Again, that's great, but baring a Dem landslide, NC will go to the GOP +8-10% or so. The Triangle isn't big enough to influence the race that much, and Charlotte and the Triad aroud 50/50 when you factor in Guilford, Forsyth, Mecklenberg, and Davidson counties.

Guilford, Meclenberg and Wake will all go to Obama 56-44 this year. Them three counties make up 24% of the population of NC.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The black percentage in Virginia is 20%, and NC 22%, so that factor strikes me as pretty marginal.

Blacks make up 20% of the regs voters in NC.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This is what I have been saying for a long time but no one believes me. This is a good atricle about how NC has changed:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/03/more_than_you_ever_wanted_to_k.php

I have several North Carolina friends and customers.  Some Democrat, most Republican.  All the Democrats say they are certain the state will go Democratic in November.  The Republicans are split.

But you know what that is?  Anecdotal crapola and speculation.

North Carolina is securely Republican territory.  Not likely R.  Certain R.

Now, if there were a McCain meltdown or a major disaster in Iraq or with the economy, then I could see NC being among the R states to flip.  But all things being equal, even with Mike Easley as Obama's running mate, NC is absolutely safe for the GOP.  I wish I were wrong about that.

I'm sorry I have to disagree, NC will be a whole lot closer then people think.