2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 170763 times)
AncestralDemocrat.
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« on: March 24, 2021, 12:06:27 PM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2021, 07:32:21 AM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2021, 09:38:42 AM »


Florida being moved to Lean R for absolutely no reason is hilarious..

It's closer to safe than lean.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2021, 11:12:25 AM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2021, 02:51:19 PM »


How Quinnipiac maintains its A rating is beyond me..
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2021, 02:11:01 PM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2021, 05:49:02 PM »
Wbrocks discounting polls never ends well.. lmao
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2021, 05:51:39 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on August 19, 2021, 04:26:33 PM

It’s only August 2021 and we’ve already entered that stage? Pretty remarkable.
They haven't learned.. the cycle of junking polls that don't fit your political bias is as tiresome as it gets.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2021, 09:23:03 AM »
"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2021, 11:50:04 AM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2022, 09:57:06 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on January 07, 2022, 03:02:21 PM
Inside Elections came out with their full Senate ratings:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2022-senate-ratings-january-7-2022

AZ: Tossup
FL: Likely R
GA: Tossup
NH: Tilt D
NV: Tossup
NC: Lean R
PA: Tilt R
WI: Lean R

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.
I would move Florida to Safe.. Wisconsin and North Carolina to Likely.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2022, 05:39:50 PM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on January 12, 2022, 02:28:28 PM
Quote from: BigSerg on January 12, 2022, 02:11:36 PM


7 point improvement on GCB for Dems.
Biden's approval is 33% in the same poll.. the undecideds will dramatically lean R.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #12 on: February 16, 2022, 12:03:20 PM »


Likely R.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2022, 05:15:05 PM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2022, 09:45:47 AM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2022, 12:48:20 PM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2022, 02:55:51 PM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #17 on: August 15, 2022, 03:30:42 PM »
Absolutely nonsensical.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2022, 08:02:14 AM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2022, 02:50:38 PM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2022, 01:32:58 PM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2022, 09:57:46 AM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2022, 06:14:29 AM »
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2022, 08:22:15 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2022, 08:26:03 AM by AncestralDemocrat. »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 17, 2022, 07:49:53 AM
What's funny about that poll is that Democrats are actually doing better with Whites than 2020 (-15 vs. -17) and only slightly worse than 2018 (-10). If it was actually -15, that would not be a terrible result at all.

There seems to be a major delta though in some of the polling we're getting. 538 has Biden's LV/RV approval at about -8 right now. Fox's 46/53 yesterday was close, CBS's 48/52 was rosier.

This one though has Biden's approval at -19, 39/58. So way off, even from the Adults average on 538 (-10). We're seeing a divergence where some polls are finding this type of result while others are finding a better result for him among LV.

This poll also has a 32 pt shift in one month among Independent Women, which just seems... highly unlikely, with a gender gap of only -5 for Dems among Men, and the race tied among women. Both those things seem highly unlikely, same with 18% of black voters going for GOP or 18-29 year olds only barely getting +10 for Ds.

Throw it in the average with everything else, but a poll that also has Trump leading in 2024 and with a 43/52 favorability is also suspect in that it's likely too GOP leaning.
43% favorability is within the margin of error for the current average (in fact being consistent with Politico and Yougov).. so I'm not sure how you can claim it to be too GOP leaning.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2022, 12:56:40 PM »


From D+2 in their last poll.
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