FL: Rereredistricting

[JerryArkansas]

Theres a chance this gets drawn out so long that the map holds until 2018 or 2020

No, stop hoping.  The decision is pretty tight.  The Legislator has to draw the maps in the next 100 days.

[JerryArkansas]

Muon, again, you have knocked it out of the park.  Very reasonable least change map. 

[JerryArkansas]

I guess I'm curious how swingy FL-10 is.

What share of Polk County's population lives in FL-15? Is it closer to 80% or 50%?

On the 10, the republican's cede it to dems, while making the 9th semi competitive in a wave.  So unless Dan Webster runs in the new 15, he is gone.

[JerryArkansas]

Torie,
Why didn't they simply back your redistricting plan. It appears this is much more favorable to the dems.

And could you give the estimates for this please too?
Thanks!

Windjammer, I suggest going to this guy here.  He is give numbers right now for 2012 for some of these districts, and giving commentary on them.  He is a great person to listen to when it comes to Florida politics, he is the one who helped come up with the Leon County in one district's thing.

[JerryArkansas]

I don't really get why they'd give FL-4 parts of St Johns while giving parts of Leon to FL-2.    All that does is make FL-6 less Pub and FL-2 more Pub.

What would the PVI of FL-6 be now?

If they didn't do that, it would mess up the third more than it already is, and just make the map look much more mess than it already does.  It looks like the new 6th is about a R +5 or 6 district.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is a map of the results by 2012 president by the new map being proposed.



Colour scale is one used by Miles.

[JerryArkansas]

So it might be possible that FL-7 is competitive once Mica retires?

It's not a might, it will be competitive if he were ever to retire this decade. 

[JerryArkansas]

So is today it?   Will we know the official map the legislature puts out by the end of today?

If they can pass a map, we will know, but if they can't get past the impass they are at, then the state court will be drawing the map.

[JerryArkansas]

The FL Sup Court has ruled that the trial judge (Lewis) should select either the House or the Senate plan.  They also have the option of passing a compromise map.

We'll it is more complicated than that.  They should pass a house or senate map, but are not required too, any map proposed by either chamber during the session could be passed.  Also both house and senate have to argue why their map is better.