2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

The big news today is that Erwin Pröll (ÖVP) will not run for President next year. Basically means President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) is guaranteed a second term if he runs:

Vienna - Lower Austrian ÖVP Governor Erwin Pröll has rejected a possible presidential candidacy, according to the newspaper Die Presse.

It quoted him as saying he had decided to remain People’s Party (ÖVP) governor of Lower Austria.

Pröll spoke of the 300,000 preference votes he had received in the 2008 provincial election and said: "I have received the trust of many Lower Austrians, who remember my promise to remain governor for my entire five-year term in office,” he said.

The governor said he had decided to make his decision public because speculation about his possible candidacy had caused confusion in Lower Austria.

ÖVP Vice Chancellor and party leader Josef Pröll, who is the Lower Austrian governor’s nephew, said before the announcement that "we have all the time in the world” to reach a decision on a presidential candidate and the party would do so at the right time.

President Heinz Fischer turned 71 last week amid continuing speculation over whether he would run for a second term.

Fischer, who was born in Graz and grew up in what observers have described as modest conditions, was a Social Democratic (SPÖ) MP between 1971 and 2004. He served as parliamentary president for the final 14 years of that period.

Fischer said earlier this year he will announce his decision about running for a second term as president "this autumn” as presidential elections are set to take place next spring. The statement has sparked rumours he might do so in his National Day TV speech on 26 October. In Austria, a president can be in charge for a maximum of two terms. Fischer defeated the People’s Party (ÖVP) candidate Benita Ferrero-Waldner in the 2004 presidential election.

Polls recently showed Erwin Pröll would be the only possible candidate who could mount a challenge against Fischer.

Political analysts had warned people might be reluctant to vote for Pröll since he is the uncle of ÖVP Vice Chancellor Josef Pröll and may feel one member of the family in senior posts could be enough.

Kronen Zeitung publisher Hans Dichand has officially backed Pröll and appealed to him to run for the post. "I would like to see both Prölls in charge of Austria,” the 88-year-old – regarded as the most influential personality in the Austrian media – said in an interview.

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabID=4082&Alias=wzo&cob=444218

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP is now also winning back my home state, Salzburg - according to a new GMK poll:

ÖVP: 38% (+1)
SPÖ: 34% (-5)
FPÖ: 16% (+3)
Greens: 9% (+2)
BZÖ: 3% (-1)

State elections were held on March 1 this year and the SPÖ now holds only 2 states anymore, Vienna and Burgenland. Allthough the 5%-decline for the SPÖ in Salzburg is in line with the national trend, the Salzburg-SPÖ is still 10% stronger than the national SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Latest IMAS/Kronen Zeitung poll for the important 2010 Vienna State Elections:

SPÖ: 44-46% (-4 compared with 2005)
ÖVP: 18-20% (nc)
FPÖ: 18-20% (+4)
Greens: 14-16% (nc)
Others: 1-3%

Direct vote for Mayor:

Michael Häupl (SPÖ-Inc.): 47%
Johannes Hahn (ÖVP): 17%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 12%
Maria Vassilakou (Greens): 7%

LOL, disastrous results for the FPÖ in my opinion ...

[Tender Branson]

With Erwin Pröll out of the Presidential race, the main focus is who the Center-right will run as their candidate now. Previously, ÖVP as well as FPÖ and BZÖ have said they will each run a candidate on their own, but with Pröll out the parties may back a united Center-Right candidate. The most important names now mentioned are former ÖVP-Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel (unlikely as he's regarded as the "destroyer" of the FPÖ), Benita Ferrero-Waldner (ÖVP, was defeated by President Fischer in 2004), former Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik (ÖVP), former ÖVP-governor of Styria Waltraud Klasnic, former audit court chief Franz Fiedler and Norbert Steger (FPÖ, a former parliamentary vice-president, who wants to abolish the Presidency if elected).

[Хahar 🤔]

Previously, ÖVP as well as FPÖ and BZÖ have said they will each run a candidate on their own, but with Pröll out the parties may back a united Center-Right candidate.

Please don't do this. The FPÖ and BZÖ aren't center-right in any sense.

[Hash]

Previously, ÖVP as well as FPÖ and BZÖ have said they will each run a candidate on their own, but with Pröll out the parties may back a united Center-Right candidate.

Please don't do this. The FPÖ and BZÖ aren't center-right in any sense.

Yeah, it's very annoying.

[Tender Branson]

Previously, ÖVP as well as FPÖ and BZÖ have said they will each run a candidate on their own, but with Pröll out the parties may back a united Center-Right candidate.

Please don't do this. The FPÖ and BZÖ aren't center-right in any sense.

Yeah, it's very annoying.

Yeah, yeah ... ok.

Anyway, new poll for the 2010 Styria State Elections:

[Tender Branson]

Latest IMAS/Kronen Zeitung poll for the 2010 Burgenland State Elections:

SPÖ: 50-52% (-1 compared with 2005)
ÖVP: 28-30% (-7)
FPÖ: 9-11% (+4)
Greens: 7-9% (+3)
Others: 1-3% (+1)

Really good polling numbers for the SPÖ so far when it comes to 2010. President Fischer is heading for re-election, the position in Vienna looks safe while the FPÖ is underperforming, Burgenland is still the reddest state in Austria and Styria is a complete tossup.

A few words to Styria:

Today, the annual SPÖ-convention took place and Gov. Voves was re-elected by 99.6% of all delegates. You have to consider that Voves is a more controversial figure within the SPÖ, who`s criticizing Chancellor Faymann all the time for being just a "smiler" but "do-nothing guy", "who's just compromising with the ÖVP as often as he can". But he seems to be on a good path in Styria.

Also, party-leftist and state parliamentary president Kurt Flecker, who was elected president with the votes of the state communists, is a frequent critic of Faymann and after the SPÖ was heavily defeated in the latest Vorarlberg and Upper Austria State elections, he asked Faymann to resign, because "he`s steering the party against a wall".

Flecker is also known in Styria for supporting the exhibition of a 5m joint in light of the 40 year Woodstock festivities with 500.000€ of taxpayer money, while he was Minister for Culture earlier this year. Today at the state convention, Voves asked Faymann and Flecker for a shakehand onstage to show party unity again:



(Faymann, Voves, Flecker)

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Gov. Voves has a 62-33 job approval rating (vs. 61-32 in the June poll) according to IMAS.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Carinthia poll:

BZÖ: 41% (-4)
SPÖ: 27% (-2)
ÖVP: 21% (+4)
Greens: 6% (+1)
FPÖ: 4% (nc)
Others: 1% (+1)

BZÖ/ÖVP Government: 62%
Opposition: 37%

[Tender Branson]

Latest Gallup/Ö24 poll:

ÖVP: 36% (+10)
SPÖ: 28% (-1)
FPÖ: 19% (+1)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Latest Gallup/Ö24 poll:

ÖVP: 36% (+10)
SPÖ: 28% (-1)
FPÖ: 19% (+1)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)

What's the reason for the rise of the ÖVP? It seems for me that the BZÖ voters outside of Carinthia go back to their roots.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Gallup/Ö24 poll:

ÖVP: 36% (+10)
SPÖ: 28% (-1)
FPÖ: 19% (+1)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)

What's the reason for the rise of the ÖVP? It seems for me that the BZÖ voters outside of Carinthia go back to their roots.

That`s true. The BZÖ is ideologically near to the ÖVP, with the BZÖ being slightly more nationalist, but also more socialist than the ÖVP. When it comes to business policy, you can't really seperate them. 2008 was probably the last time the BZÖ got more than 5% nationwide. Another reason might be that there's a temporary bounce because the ÖVP did so well in the latest state elections. That also happened after the June EU elections. While SPÖ and ÖVP were tied before the elections, the ÖVP was 5% ahead after the elections. After some time it narrowed again. Lets wait for next year, because the SPÖ is doomed to win at least 3 of the 4 races that are held. If the Social Democrats are reelected to the Presidency, win in Burgenland and Vienna and have a good result in Styria, they may have a big comeback in the national polls as well.

Anyway, new Ö24/Gallup poll for the Presidential Election:

President Fischer Approval Rating: 77% Approve, 17% Disapprove

Only 45% of Austrians want an ÖVP-candidate to oppose Fischer. If ÖVP and FPÖ run a fusion candidate, 62% of Austrians are opposed.

Adequacy ratings of possible Fischer-opponents:

* Christoph Leitl (35% of Austrians say he's adequat for the Presidency)
* Andreas Khol (35%)
* Franz Fiedler (29%
* Waltraud Klasnic (29%)
* Wolfgang Schüssel (26%
* Susanne Riess-Passer (21%)
* Norbert Steger (11%)

63% of Austrians favor the Presidency, 32% say it's dispensable. Younger people (83% support) are more likely than old people to favor the office (41% oppose). Voters of all parties, except BZÖ-voters, favor the Presidency. BZÖ-voters favor abolishment by 52%.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Solo-fuer-Heinz-Fischer-0558123.ece

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Jeder-Dritte-will-keinen-Praesident-0558157.ece

[Tender Branson]

Adequacy ratings of possible Fischer-opponents:

* Christoph Leitl (35% of Austrians say he's adequat for the Presidency)
* Andreas Khol (35%)
* Franz Fiedler (29%
* Waltraud Klasnic (29%)
* Wolfgang Schüssel (26%
* Susanne Riess-Passer (21%)
* Norbert Steger (11%)

The top 2 of these candidates have said to Ö24 today that they won't run for President, making it even harder for the ÖVP to field a good candidate.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Profil/Karmasin poll:

ÖVP: 35% (+9)
SPÖ: 28% (-1)
FPÖ: 22% (+4)
Greens: 10% (nc)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)

[Tender Branson]

The Coalition (SPÖVP) has obviously agreed that Johannes (Gio) Hahn will go to Brussels, to become the new Austrian EU Commissioner for something (probably Agriculture). That means Austria needs a new Minister of Science and Education, as well as a new head of the Vienna-ÖVP, because in roughly one year there are state elections. Students will most likely be very happy with the "Brussels-deployment", because Hahn is very controversial with students, favoring the introduction of tuition fees in universities, as well as blocking the compensation proposal for the swelling German student population.

[Tender Branson]

A few updates:

There's a new Ö24/Gallup poll out for the October 2010 Vienna State elections:

SPÖ: 45% (-4)
FPÖ: 20% (+5)
ÖVP: 18% (-1)
Greens: 15% (nc)
Others: 2% (nc)

In a direct vote for Mayor, the incumbent Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) beats Austrian FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache by 59-19.

That`s a bad result for the FPÖ, considering that FPÖ+BZÖ got 25% in Vienna in the 2008 federal elections. The ÖVP is also in bad shape, because they are currently leaderless. The Vienna ÖVP was led by Johannes Hahn, who is also Austrian Minister for Science and Research. But now he was appointed for the post of Austrian EU Commissioner in Brussels. The new Vienna ÖVP leader is now most likely Harry Himmer.

Austrian President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) has still not announced if he'll run for re-election next year, but the ÖVP is leaning against running a candidate to oppose him. Under Austrian law, presidential campaign money is not refunded by taxpayer money, unlike in parliamentary elections. Therefore the ÖVP would waste about 7 Mio. €, because Fischer looks unbeatable. It remains to be seen if any other party will risk putting up a candidate against Fischer, but they also lean against, because of the money issue. Austrians don't want a costly presidential race this time and ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ and Greens are saving their money for the 2010 state elections instead.

There's also a new federal Ö24/Gallup poll:

ÖVP: 35% (+9)
SPÖ: 29% (nc)
FPÖ: 20% (+2)
Greens: 11% (+1)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)

[Tender Branson]

Latest news on the Civil Union law:

This Tuesday, parliament will vote on the new Civil Union Law that will be enacted on January 1, 2010. The SPÖVP coalition will most likely back it, the FPÖ will vote against it, the BZÖ has announced a free vote for all their members and the Greens are most likely to oppose it, because they think it doesn't go far enough (they want full marriage rights for gay couples incl. adoptions, which are banned in this Civil Union law).

In most aspects, the law is enabling the same rights to gay couples that hetero couples have and by the media it is described similar to Germany's or Switzerland's model (or even more progressive).

The main battle between SPÖ and ÖVP is now also settled: While the SPÖ wanted gays to register at the "Standesamt" (town registrar's offices), the ÖVP wanted them to register at the county registrar's offices. In Austria, hetero couples wed and register at the "Standesamt", whereas the county registrar's offices are responsible for minor issues such as issuing driver licenses. The ÖVP Interior and Justice Ministers won the dispute to highlight the difference to the traditional marriage and gays will now "marry" at the county agencies.

There's also a new Profil/Gallup poll out that shows that Austrians side with the SPÖ on the issue:

45% want Civil Unions registered at the Standesamt (town registrar's offices)
17% want Civil Unions registered at the BH or Magistrat (county registrar's offices)
20% think it doesn't matter where Civil Unions are registered
16% are completely against Civil Unions
2% had no opinion

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20091114_OTS0002/profil-mehrheit-fuer-eintragung-der-homo-ehe-am-standesamt/channel/medien

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP is also in bad shape, because they are currently leaderless. The Vienna ÖVP was led by Johannes Hahn, who is also Austrian Minister for Science and Research. But now he was appointed for the post of Austrian EU Commissioner in Brussels. The new Vienna ÖVP leader is now most likely Harry Himmer.

The new Vienna ÖVP leader is not Harry Himmer. Austrian Under-Secretary for Economy, Family and Youth - Christine Marek - announced that she would run for the post and Himmer retreated. Today she was elected with 80% to the leadership position.

Now we have 2 women front-runners for next year and 2 men:

SPÖ: Mayor Michael Häupl
FPÖ: Austrian FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache
ÖVP: Christine Marek
Greens: Maria Vassilakou

[freek]

The Coalition (SPÖVP) has obviously agreed that Johannes (Gio) Hahn will go to Brussels, to become the new Austrian EU Commissioner for something (probably Agriculture).

Agriculture? Again? That would be the third time in four Commissions.

Oh well, at least it is better for a country than having the European Commissioner for Multilingualism.

[Tender Branson]

The Coalition (SPÖVP) has obviously agreed that Johannes (Gio) Hahn will go to Brussels, to become the new Austrian EU Commissioner for something (probably Agriculture).

Agriculture? Again? That would be the third time in four Commissions.

Oh well, at least it is better for a country than having the European Commissioner for Multilingualism.

Agriculture is the best ressort, because it`s the one where you can throw the most money around ...

But Hahn is now mentioned as the new Commissioner for Environment, not Agriculture.

Here's a list of what we know so far:

The future Commission’s profile is becoming clearer but still needs a fair amount of fine tuning. Six countries have yet to announce officially who their choices are: Ireland, Greece, Italy, Malta, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The special European Council, on 19 November, is expected to approve the names of the 27 members of the new Commission.

Meanwhile, Europoliticspresents the most accurate picture possible of the new executive just days before the names become official.

- AT - Austria: Johannes Hahn. The left-right coalition in Vienna ended up agreeing on the candidacy of Conservative Johannes Hahn, currently science minister.

- BE - Belgium: Karel De Gucht. As Louis Michel’s successor, De Gucht does not plan to keep the development and humanitarian aid portfolio. Belgium is hoping to secure energy or trade.

- BG - Bulgaria: Rumiana Jeleva. A sociology professor with a doctorate from Otto von Guericke University in Germany, this 40-year-old was re-elected last June to a second term in the European Parliament on the list of the right-of-centre party in office, the GERB.

- CZ – Czech Republic: Stefan Füle. Aged 47, Füle has served as ambassador to Lithuania, the United Kingdom and NATO. In May 2009, he was named European affairs minister in Jan Fischer’s government. His Communist past, and the fact that he studied at the Soviet State Institute for International Relations in Moscow, sparked debate at the time of his ministerial appointment.

- CY - Cyprus: Androulla Vassiliou. The mandate of Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou (Liberal, age 66), appointed to replace Markos Kyprianou, who returned to the national government, is expected to be renewed.

- DE - Germany: Günther Oettinger. Minister-president of Baden-Württemberg since 2005, this 56-year-old Christian Democrat, who studied law, will replace Social Democrat Günter Verheugen (industry). This choice marks the return of a CDU member to the Commission after a 20-year absence.

- DK - Denmark: The Danish candidate is expected to be the current Energy and Climate Minister, Connie Hedegaard.

- EE - Estonia: Siim Kallas. In charge of administration, audit and anti-fraud in the outgoing Commission, Kallas was given the full support of his government in mid-September. At age 61, he is said to be interested in one of the key portfolios, such as internal market, competition or economic and monetary affairs, but is not likely to secure one of these very sought-after positions.

- IE - Ireland: Maire Geoghegan Quinn, Ireland’s representative to the EU Court of Auditors, is the name mentioned most often, but some are critical of her ties with Declan Ganley, the champion of the ‘no’ vote on the Lisbon Treaty. A possible alternative is Pat Cox, former president of the European Parliament, whose name is also circulating.

- EL - Greece: The new government has not yet announced a decision.

- ES - Spain: Joaquín Almunia. After receiving the backing of Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero in April, Almunia looks set to be the future Spanish commissioner.

- FI - Finland: Olli Rehn, enlargement commissioner in the outgoing Commission.

- FR - France: Michel Barnier. Former Foreign Minister, Barnier was a member of the Commission from 1994 to 1999.

- HU - Hungary: László Andor. This economist and member of the Board of Directors of the EBRD since 2005 will succeed László Kovács, in charge of taxation and customs union. Andor has no ties to any political party but has the support of the governing Socialists (MSZP).

- IT - Italy: Unless Italy obtains the post of high representative for former Prime Minister Massimo D’Alema (who has the backing of the European Socialists), Antonio Tajani is expected to be named to the Commission. In 2008, he became transport commissioner following Franco Frattini’s return to the national political scene.

- LT - Lithuania: Algirdas Semeta, in charge of budget and financial programming since September, when Dalia Grybauskaité was elected president of Lithuania, is expected to remain Lithuania’s candidate for the next executive. The 47-year-old economist (Christian Democrat) is a former finance minister.

- LU - Luxembourg: Viviane Reding. At age 58, she is set to hold her third mandate in the executive. Reding could keep the telecommunications portfolio, which several sources say could be widened to include intellectual property (currently under the internal market portfolio) and thus online content.

- LV - Latvia: Andris Piebalgs. Appointed for a second term, Piebalgs, a physicist by training, hopes to keep the energy portfolio.

- MT - Malta:The name of the next Maltese commissioner is not known yet, although current Fisheries and Maritime Affairs Commissioner Joe Borg has made it clear that he is ready to accept a second mandate.

- NL - Netherlands: The Netherlands has not made an official announcement yet. The appointee will depend to a large extent on the portfolio. The names being heard most often, apart from Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, who some see as the future European Council president, include: Justice Minister Ernst Hirsch Ballin, Yvonne van Rooy, chancellor of the University of Tilburg and former deputy minister for economic affairs, former Agriculture Minister Cees Veermans and Economic Affairs Minister Maria van der Hoeven.

- PL - Poland: The future Polish commissioner is expected to be Janusz Lewandowski, recently re-elected to the EP (EPP). His experience would be suited to an economic portfolio, as sought by Poland. There has been no decision yet, however, and in Poland, Donald Tusk’s aides repeat that everything will depend on the portfolio offered.

- PT - Portugal: José Manuel Barroso. Chosen by the 27 EU heads of state and government and confirmed by the European Parliament, Conservative Barroso is staying on for a second term at the Commission.

- RO - Romania: Dacian Ciolos. The collapse of the Romanian government, on 13 October, re-opened debate on the name of the future commissioner. In the end, the choice of Emil Boc’s government was confirmed, namely former Agriculture Minister Dacian Ciolos.

- SK - Slovakia: Maros Sefcovic. The former permanent representative to the EU, who this year replaced Jan Figel, Sefcovic is expected to stay on as Slovakia’s commissioner. He is said to be interested in energy or transport.

- SI - Slovenia: Janez Potocnik. The current research commissioner has been appointed for a second term by his government. Potocnik would like either to keep the same portfolio or to obtain an economic portfolio, since is an economist by training.

- SE - Sweden: Cecilia Malmström. On 17 November, Stockholm nominated Cecilia Malmström, the country’s current EU affairs minister, as its next commissioner. A member of the Liberal Party, she was an MEP between 1999 and 2006. Malmström’s nomination excludes the rumoured appointment of current Foreign Minister Carl Blidt as high representative for foreign affairs and security policy.

- UK – United Kingdom: Gordon Brown has not announced his choice, which would be made official at the EU summit, on 19 November. Apart from current Commissioner Catherine Ashton, the names of Shriti Vadera (secretary for competitiveness) and David Miliband are being mentioned.

http://europolitics.info/europolitics/new-college-slowly-taking-shape-art254731-46.html

[Tender Branson]

Austrian government to recognise same-sex civil unions

DEREK SCALLY, in Berlin

THE GOVERNMENT of Austria has cleared the way for state recognition of same-sex civil unions from the start of next year.

The necessary legislation was agreed yesterday in a compromise between the ruling Social Democrats (SPÖ) and their junior, conservative coalition partners, the People's Party (ÖVP). It gives same-sex couples identical rights to married couples in financial affairs such as tax, pension and maintenance.

Adoption rights and access to artificial insemination as a couple will not be granted.

Under pressure from the conservatives, same-sex couples will not be able to register their partnership in a ceremony at their local registry office. SPÖ women's affairs minister Gabriele Heinisch-Hosek, who was responsible for the legislation, said the law was "incomplete" with a registry office ban and said it was only a "temporary" measure.

"I think this is something we will keep under discussion," said SPÖ chancellor Werner Faymann of the deal, reached yesterday at 6am after an all-night negotiating session. Meanwhile ÖVP leader Josef Pröll said his party had "gone far enough" by "agreeing to what was possible".

The law has come in for heavy criticism in conservative Austrian society, and has been attacked as "unnecessary" by Catholic bishops.

Gay rights campaigners have brushed off the criticism and welcomed the legislation as part of a European trend. "What the church has to finally accept is that the question of state recognition of all forms of relationship is a state and not a religious matter," said Marco Schreuder, a Green city councillor in Vienna, to Die Presse newspaper.

At a gay rights march in Vienna there were mixed feelings towards the new legislation.

"Homos should be allowed make the same mistakes as heteros!" read one marcher's sign, a nod to a total of 37 points of difference in the new legislation with the rights and obligations of married couples.

"They can take the new law and stick it," said 30-something Erich from Vienna, in a relationship for 10 years. "This law makes us into second-class citizens."

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/1118/1224259040662.html

[Hash]

If Barnier or any MEP becomes Commish, doesn't that mean he resigns as MEP?

[Tender Branson]

Nothing really new after 1 year of the Faymann-Pröll (SPÖVP) government (new Profil poll):

ÖVP: 34% (+8)
SPÖ: 29% (nc)
FPÖ: 21% (+3)
Greens: 10% (nc)
BZÖ: 5% (-6)
Others: 1% (-5)

[Tender Branson]

President Heinz Fischer announced his run for re-election today in a YouTube-Video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfxQurRWqDA

Now it´s time for the other parties to decide if they`ll oppose Fischer with his 80% approvals and waste millions of € for nothing (or for the sake of Democracy).