2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

Why ost-tirol is so utterly övp.

Good question. It is an isolated mountainous county with few people and low purchasing power and high unemployment. But so is my county (which is just north to East-Tyrol, just with low unemployment and higher purchasing power) Normally conservative counties tend to have low unemployment but East-Tyrol is crazy. Some towns there only have 100 inhabitants and they are voting with 95% for ÖVP/FPÖ and BZÖ ...

[minionofmidas]

How much tourism is there in Osttirol?

[Tender Branson]

How much tourism is there in Osttirol?

It's not bad ...

Osttirol is the 12th-biggest "Tourismusverband" in Tyrol (out of 36) with roughly 900.000 overnight stays in the 2008/09 winter season and roughly 165.000 arrivals.

The biggest tourism region in Tyrol this season was Ötztal with 2.540.000 stays, followed by Ischgl with 2.140.000 stays.

Interestingly, Osttirol had the biggest jump in arrivals (+11%) this season compared with the last.

http://www.tirol.gv.at/themen/zahlen-und-fakten/statistik/tourismusverband

[Tender Branson]

It is leading forestry area of Austria IIRC

Yeah.

The whole county is roughly looking like this:

[Хahar 🤔]

Steger is still associated with the FPÖ? How old is he now?

How do you know Steger ?

BTW, he's 65 now. I was somehow shocked that Strache would consider the "liberal" Steger, who was axed by Jörg Haider in the 1986 FPÖ leadership election, as a Presidential candidate for the FPÖ. I'd think Barbara Rosenkranz (housewife with 10 children of Germanic names and married to a Nazi) would be far better fitting for them ...

I only know him as the one Haider axed (and, I suppose, the last left-liberal left in the FPÖ).

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP-leader in Salzburg) has backed a Pröll candidacy too after Styrian ÖVP-leader Schützenhöfer was the first to voice his support. Josef Pühringer (ÖVP-governor in Upper Austria) is now also backing Pröll.

Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) and Vienna Mayor Häupl (SPÖ) have already said they will strongly back President Fischer if he decides to run. He'll probably declare his re-election campaign on June 5 in "Meet the Press", earlier than was thought before.

[Tender Branson]

Also, Burgenland Governor Hans Niessl (SPÖ) for Fischer's re-election.

Burgenland ÖVP leader Franz Steindl says Pröll is an astonishing personality, but the discussion about the ÖVP candidate is too early.

In Upper Austria, SPÖ-leader Erich Haider (not related with Jörg Haider) has endorsed Fischer for a second term.

Hans Dichand, owner of the tabloid Kronen Zeitung and read by 3 Million Austrians each day, has endorsed Erwin Pröll for President. Normally the Krone is running a strong SPÖ bias.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting stuff:

I created this map of the 1986 Austrian Presidential Election between Kurt Waldheim (ÖVP) and Kurt Steyrer (SPÖ). Waldheim won the election by 53.9 to 46.1, but notice how Carinthia trended away from the SPÖ between 1986 and 2004.

For example, Steyrer got 55.9% in the Villach suburbs (Villach-Land), while Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) got only 51.4% there in 2004, despite winning Austria with 52.4% of the vote.

I'll probably do the first ever trend-map that has been created for Austrian Presidential elections later (1986 vs. 2004, maybe 1992 vs. 2004 too) ...



6 blue Waldheim shades from 50-80% (5% each)
4 red Steyrer shades from 50-70% (5% each)

[Tender Branson]

Trend by Austrian County between the 1986 Presidential Election and the 2004 Presidential Election (ÖVP-SPÖ Margin Change from Previous Election Relative to National Change):



3 Blue shades (trended 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15% more ÖVP)
4 Red shades (trended 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15%, 15-20% more SPÖ)

LOL @ Carinthia ! Similar to the Deep South in the US from Democrats to Republicans, it changed from being a Strong-SPÖ state to an ÖVP-state. Expect it to be even bluer in the future ...

Strongly conservative Waldheim counties in '86 are among the hardest SPÖ-trending (notice Vorarlberg and Tyrol and much of Northern Lower Austria as well as south-eastern Styria). Don't know though why the conservative Kitzbühel trended even more sonservative.

The fact that moderately SPÖ-counties are trending to the ÖVP by 0-5% is probably due to the fact that Steyrer was doing relatively well there in '86 and Fischer couldn't do any better there and maxed out (notice Simmering and Favoriten in SW Vienna and Floridsdorf and Donaustadt in North-Vienna).

Salzburg, normally a conservative state like Tyrol and Vorarlberg in Presidential Elections, did not trend SPÖ, mainly because ÖVP-candidate Ferrero-Waldner was born in Salzburg (-> home state effect).

[Tender Branson]

I was just polled by IFES for the 2010 Presidential Election, questions about the economy and the assessment of political leaders. I gave Strache the worst grade possible and said I would vote for Fischer (SPÖ) over Pröll (ÖVP).

IFES does polls for the newspaper "Heute", but they blew the Martin share by 8% in the Euro elections (they said 10%, he got 18%) ...

[Hash]

Why was the SPÖ so strong in Carinthia in the first place?

[Tender Branson]

Why was the SPÖ so strong in Carinthia in the first place?

The ÖVP has always been weak in Carinthia compared with other Austrian states. The FPÖ has been stronger there. It could be that Carinthia was a more industrialized state before the 80's and then changed to a services/tourism state. It also had to do with Leopold Wagner, SPÖ governor from 1974 to 1988, a working class "state father", who attracted many blue-collar FPÖ voters I guess and achieving absolute SPÖ majorities in 3 consecutive elections. And with the rise of Jörg Haider it went all downhill for the state-SPÖ, consolidating the Far-Right side of the FPÖ and attracting many SPÖ voters ...

[Tender Branson]

Damn !

Erwin Pröll is closing the gap with incumbent President Heinz Fischer rather quickly. 2 new polls out today:

Market/Standard:

Fischer (SPÖ): 54%
Pröll (ÖVP): 30%

OGM/News:

Fischer (SPÖ): 53%
Pröll (ÖVP): 30%

That means Pröll has doubled his percentage in the last week, while Fischer's support is down by about 10%. Should be rather interesting, Fischer with 80% approval ratings and on the other side a state governor for 17 years, also with 80%ish approval ratings in a country that is currently about 60-40 Center-Right ...

Fischer could actually lose, if there's a big downward spiral ...

[Tender Branson]

2 new Presidential polls today:

Gallup for Ö24 (June 25 and 26, 1000 Austrians aged 16+)

First round:

Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 51%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 17%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 9%
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens): 8%
Claudia Haider (BZÖ): 5%
Undecided: 10%

Strache has already said he won't run, but I guess the Gallup-people wanted to test the maximum strength of the FPÖ candidate and Strache is the most popular among them.

Run-off:

Fischer (SPÖ): 62%
Pröll (ÖVP): 25%
Undecided: 13%

Fischer Approval Rating:

80% Approve
10% Disapprove

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090627_OTS0042&ch=politik

IMAS for the tabloid "Kronen Zeitung"

Fischer (SPÖ): 62%
Pröll (ÖVP): 20%

In the event that Erwin Pröll is elected President in 2010 and his nephew and current Vice-Chancellor Josef Pröll is winning the next Parliamentary elections in 2013 to bceome Chancellor of Austria, would such a reign of family power bother you ?

62% No
30% Yes

How influental would you say are the powers of the President of Austria ?

Influental: 24%
Not Influental: 72%

Also:

Federal Election poll by Gallup for Ö24

ÖVP: 30%
SPÖ: 29%
FPÖ: 23%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 37%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 36%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090627_OTS0040&ch=politik

[Tender Branson]

Another poll I've just found:

"Österreich-Trend" by Peter Hajek for the TV-station ATV (1000 Austrians 16+, June 17-23)

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 21%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 20%

How would you rate the state of Democracy in Austria these days?

49% Very Good/Good
49% Poor/Very Poor

Do you think there's fairness in Austria these days?

51% Yes
36% No

How would you describe the state of the Austrian economy these days ?

43% Very Good/Good
42% Poor/Very Poor

How would you describe the state of your own financial situation these days ?

81% Very Good/Good
19% Poor/Very Poor

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/2048589/index.do

[Hash]

So, are Josef and Erwin Pröll brothers[no qm on this computer]

[Tender Branson]

So, are Josef and Erwin Pröll brothers[no qm on this computer]

No. Erwin is Josef's uncle.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Styria poll by IMAS for todays Kronen Zeitung:

[Tender Branson]

With Erwin Pröll getting slaughtered by incumbent President Fischer in the latest polls (see above), the ÖVP is now thinking about running former Styria ÖVP-governor Waltraud Klasnic as a sacrificial lamb against Fischer. Pröll could wait for the open race in 2016 instead (but he would be rather old then). Fischer would eat Klasnic alive I guess, something like 70-30 or 60-40 ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest Tyrol poll by IMAD:

Gov. Günther Platter (ÖVP) Approval Rating: 80%

ÖVP: 46% (+5.5 compared with 2008 state elections)
SPÖ: 18% (+2.5)
Greens: 13% (+2.3)
FPÖ: 11% (-1.4)
Dinkhauser: 8% (-10.4)
Others: 4% (+1.5)

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new Spectra poll out for the September Upper Austria State elections:

ÖVP: 44%
SPÖ: 32%
BZÖ: 3%

The article does not give actual numbers for the FPÖ and the Greens, but it says that the FPÖ is ahead of the Greens, but not by a lot. So I guess with 21% undecided, it's either 12-9 for the FPÖ or 11-10.

Governor Josef Pühringer (ÖVP) has a 85% job approval according to the poll.

If this trend holds, the current ÖVP-Green coalition in the state will probably continue.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) and Vienna Mayor Häupl (SPÖ) have already said they will strongly back President Fischer if he decides to run. He'll probably declare his re-election campaign on June 5 in "Meet the Press", earlier than was thought before.

He has not announced his plans today, saying it is too early to start the 2010 campaign ...

[Tender Branson]

Of 6 candidates mentioned for the FPÖ, 3 have categorically ruled out a run for President today, while 1 said he might run.

Wilhelm Brauneder: said he might run

Norbert Steger: has said he'll never run for office again
Dieter Böhmdorfer: has said no to a candidacy
Reinhart Waneck: has said his wife would divorce him if he went back to politics

Barbara Rpsenkranz: no word so far
Norbert Gugerbauer: the same

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal Market poll for the newspaper "Standard":

ÖVP: 30% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (-3)
FPÖ: 25% (+7)
Greens: 10% (nc)
BZÖ: 6% (-5)
Others: 3% (-3)

The combined Far-Right would be the strongest party in Austria right now ...

http://derstandard.at/fs/1246542007095/Umfrage-FPOe-schon-knapp-hinter-Kanzlerpartei-SPOe

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new Presidential Gallup poll for Ö24:

Heinz Fischer (SPÖ-Inc.): 65%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 25%

Pretty impressive, considering that Austria is now 61-36 center-right ...

Calls within the ÖVP (especially the circle around former Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel) are increasing that former Styria Governor - Waltraud Klasnic - should run instead of Pröll.

With her as a candidate, I guess Fischer could even win in the first round ...