What are Pat Quinn's chances? Should he have ridden off into the sunset?

[muon2]

My thoughts are that Quinn should have retired this year after his horrible 1st full four-year term as governor, but his ego won't let him.

Now if Quinn had retired, Lisa Madigan would have easily won the Dem nomination and general election in November.

Lisa Madigan didn't pass on the race because Quinn stayed in. She passed on it because her father wouldn't agree to retire as Speaker.

[muon2]

The GOP party could of nominated winners, moderate Corrine Wood lost to Jim Ryan, 2006 Jim Oberwise lost to JB Topinka, 2014 Kirk Dillard lost to Bruce Rauner. The GOP primary voters are so far right, they nominate the ones that are less electable.

Oberweis is quite a bit to the right of Topinka. Of the 4 candidates in 2006 the GOP nominated the most moderate of the choices by anyone's measure. Ryan was the middle candidate in terms of ideology of the three that ran in 2002, and was a popular AG.

In consecutive elections the GOP nominated a popular center-right statewide office holder, a very moderate (some would say liberal) statewide office holder, and a conservative long-time state senator. Ideology was not the factor in the defeats. The IL Dems have an excellent ground organization and GOTV and that is the common factor in all three races.

[muon2]

On Madigan's father: term limits in the Illinois House of Representatives (see CA term limits in 1990 due to Willie Brown) will force him to retire from the speakership sooner or later.

At some point, folks are going to get sick and tired of Mike Madigan.

There are no term limits in the IL House, though there is a current citizen initiative to institute them. If the initiative survives the court challenge and wins this year, the earliest Speaker Madigan could be forced out is in 2023 after the 2022 elections.

Folks may tire of the Speaker (he's served in that office for all but 2 years since 1983), but they can't elect someone else. Madigan does an excellent job of supporting Dems in their home districts and the gerrymandered map heavily favors a Dem majority. The House Dems are not going to elect anyone else as long as Madigan chooses to remain Speaker.