Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

I honestly don't see how Ukraine survives as a nation for much longer if it can't accept Crimea and Donbass are lost.

The issue with Russia's demands really isn't the Crimea/Donbas recognition, but the fact that Russia gets to demand who the PM gets to be. Also, what are the borders of the DPR/LPR? Why should Ukraine give up the entirety of those oblasts? The people outside the former line of control clearly have no desire to join the Russian-backed separatist states and it would be particularly offensive to make places like Mariupol to join the DPR considering what they have gone through in this war.

Maybe one could agree to hold a referendum in Donbas on its future status. But then Russia would surely insist that they're the ones who are "counting" the votes, and we would be back to square one.

You can't make deals with fascists.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Refugees/status/1500822336672608262

[afleitch]

I honestly don't see how Ukraine survives as a nation for much longer if it can't accept Crimea and Donbass are lost.

The issue with Russia's demands really isn't the Crimea/Donbas recognition, but the fact that Russia gets to demand who the PM gets to be. Also, what are the borders of the DPR/LPR? Why should Ukraine give up the entirety of those oblasts? The people outside the former line of control clearly have no desire to join the Russian-backed separatist states and it would be particularly offensive to make places like Mariupol to join the DPR considering what they have gone through in this war.

This.

This war has forged a Ukrainian identity across the Dneiper that has likely destroyed any pretence of pro-Russian feeling or identity. No doubt in Crimea and Donbas too where it may have been somewhat genuine.

Russia hasn't accepted this new reality. Ukraine have a stronger claim to these areas as a result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1500841586237845517

[Sir Mohamed]

I honestly don't see how Ukraine survives as a nation for much longer if it can't accept Crimea and Donbass are lost.

The issue with Russia's demands really isn't the Crimea/Donbas recognition, but the fact that Russia gets to demand who the PM gets to be. Also, what are the borders of the DPR/LPR? Why should Ukraine give up the entirety of those oblasts? The people outside the former line of control clearly have no desire to join the Russian-backed separatist states and it would be particularly offensive to make places like Mariupol to join the DPR considering what they have gone through in this war.

This.

This war has forged a Ukrainian identity across the Dneiper that has likely destroyed any pretence of pro-Russian feeling or identity. No doubt in Crimea and Donbas too where it may have been somewhat genuine.

Russia hasn't accepted this new reality. Ukraine have a stronger claim to these areas as a result.

Tbh, I wonder whether there is any possible outcome of the war, in which Russia loses to a degree they have to return Crimea and Donbas? I'd actually like to see this, and guess Ukrainians feel strongly about that.

[afleitch]

I honestly don't see how Ukraine survives as a nation for much longer if it can't accept Crimea and Donbass are lost.

The issue with Russia's demands really isn't the Crimea/Donbas recognition, but the fact that Russia gets to demand who the PM gets to be. Also, what are the borders of the DPR/LPR? Why should Ukraine give up the entirety of those oblasts? The people outside the former line of control clearly have no desire to join the Russian-backed separatist states and it would be particularly offensive to make places like Mariupol to join the DPR considering what they have gone through in this war.

This.

This war has forged a Ukrainian identity across the Dneiper that has likely destroyed any pretence of pro-Russian feeling or identity. No doubt in Crimea and Donbas too where it may have been somewhat genuine.

Russia hasn't accepted this new reality. Ukraine have a stronger claim to these areas as a result.

Tbh, I wonder whether there is any possible outcome of the war, in which Russia loses to a degree they have to return Crimea and Donbas? I'd actually like to see this, and guess Ukrainians feel strongly about that.

Part of me would like to see Russia thrashed in a UN administered plebiscite.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1500841586237845517

Amazing. (And very on-point for Mass supply companies; the main one in my area is called "W.B. O'Connor".) Hats off to a real one.

[Serenity Now]

Probably already shared:

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1500557635686486023?s=20&t=o9I4l2BEET_...

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

I HATE THE ANTI-CHRIST I HATE THE ANTI-CHRIST

https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500728148996018176

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1500864244614668298

[It’s so Joever]

The stupid thing is, if Putin had simply played the long game of misinformation in Ukraine with heavy targeting in Russian speaking communities, he would have likely had a much better chance at holding these lands for Russia long term eventually. Of course this is a glory project for a dying person who only did it because he knows there won’t be any consequences immediately and he won’t be blamed for the long term guerilla war.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Refugees/status/1500822336672608262

I suspect that Putin and Lavrov are quite happy about this because in their sick, perverse minds they probably think that this is gonna bind the West's ressources while strenghtening anti-immigration parties.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Refugees/status/1500822336672608262

I suspect that Putin and Lavrov are quite happy about this because in their sick, perverse minds they probably think that this is gonna bind the West's ressources while strenghtening anti-immigration parties.

It is probably going to do this.

[pppolitics]

Almost every Ukranian now hates Putin/Russia, including the Russian-speaking population

[...]

Mr. Putin has claimed that swaths of the country, including the south, are historically Russian lands and has attempted to justify his invasion as necessary to protect local Russian speakers. But, after seizing places like Melitopol, his forces there are largely being treated as foreign occupiers rather than liberators.

“He thought in these towns we’d be happy and meet them with Russian flags, but no one here was waiting for Russia,” said Andriy Radchenko, a 41-year-old surgeon in Melitopol. “We want to demoralize them, to erode their spirit.”

Thousands protested on Saturday in other occupied cities and towns. The largest protests were in the neighboring regional capital of Kherson, where one man jumped atop a passing Russian armored vehicle and waved a large Ukrainian flag to cheers from the crowd.

The resistance of the local population in predominantly Russian-speaking cities is a challenge to Mr. Putin. Russia’s soldiers, who were told they were on a mission to liberate a brotherly nation from neo-Nazi rulers, will now have to suppress the very people they are purporting to protect.

[...]

People in Melitopol mostly speak Russian, in part because the Soviets suppressed Ukrainian culture and mandated use of Russian. Most switch freely between the two, which are linguistically similar, and many are speaking Ukrainian as a form of passive resistance.

On March 1, three days after Russian troops took control, a few hundred people gathered in a central square for a prayer meeting. They sang the national anthem, waved Ukrainian flags and held signs including one reading: “Melitopol is our land.”

[...]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/occupied-ukrainian-towns-want-russian-troops-to-go-home-11646662450?mod=e2tw

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Refugees/status/1500822336672608262

I suspect that Putin and Lavrov are quite happy about this because in their sick, perverse minds they probably think that this is gonna bind the West's ressources while strenghtening anti-immigration parties.

It is probably going to do this.

Yes with regards to the first part, I'm not so sure about that second part. A recent poll im Germany showed that 68% of AfD voters supported taking in Ukrainian refugees. While this was still significantly lower than the ca. 95% support from the rest of the population it shows that Ukrainians still have a better standing because as (for the most part relatively conservative?) Christians they're the "good" kind of refugees

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Refugees/status/1500822336672608262

I suspect that Putin and Lavrov are quite happy about this because in their sick, perverse minds they probably think that this is gonna bind the West's ressources while strenghtening anti-immigration parties.

It is probably going to do this.

Yes with regards to the first part, I'm not so sure about that second part. A recent poll im Germany showed that 68% of AfD voters supported taking in Ukrainian refugees. While this was still significantly lower than the ca. 95% support from the rest of the population it shows that Ukrainians still have a better standing because as (for the most part relatively conservative?) Christians they're the "good" kind of immigrants.

I believe this will change. The wave of refugees is ultimately going to be much bigger than that caused by the Syrian crisis and Arab Winter. If the culture warriors don’t turn against Ukranian refugees first, the Thatcherites will rail against the use of the social safety net to help them survive. Among the refugees will be a small but potentially significant number of Roma, and they’ll get even worse treatment.

It’s already begun in the UK, and anti-Eastern European sentiment is not limited to this island. We seem to be planning to take fewer refugees than last time (only 50 so far). Cowards who call themselves progressive or moderate will remember their electoral losses after the last crisis and quickly cut back on aid to refugees, especially if and when the Ukrainian government that could criticise this behaviour no longer exists.

[Torie]

I honestly don't see how Ukraine survives as a nation for much longer if it can't accept Crimea and Donbass are lost.

How can one even have a clue about that until the structure of the deal offered is not one that could be reasonably construed as death by a thousand serial cuts?

If Putin offers a deal where in exchange for the Crimea and Donbass heist being recognized, Russia stipulates that what remains of Crimea may join NATO and have NATO military assets stationed there, what do you think might happen?

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Refugees/status/1500822336672608262

I suspect that Putin and Lavrov are quite happy about this because in their sick, perverse minds they probably think that this is gonna bind the West's ressources while strenghtening anti-immigration parties.

It is probably going to do this.

Yes with regards to the first part, I'm not so sure about that second part. A recent poll im Germany showed that 68% of AfD voters supported taking in Ukrainian refugees. While this was still significantly lower than the ca. 95% support from the rest of the population it shows that Ukrainians still have a better standing because as (for the most part relatively conservative?) Christians they're the "good" kind of refugees

It also should be added that AfD is quite strong among Russian Germans who are way more likely to blame Ukraine for the war and believe the Kremlin propaganda.

[It’s so Joever]

I am hearing some early reports of Vasylivka and Polohy faking to the Russians. If true, that would make an attack on Zaporizhzhia (the city, not the plant which is in Enerhodar) much easier. Also would fit in with the pattern of the Southern front sucking for Ukraine.

[Storr]

Almost every Ukranian now hates Putin/Russia, including the Russian-speaking population

[...]

Mr. Putin has claimed that swaths of the country, including the south, are historically Russian lands and has attempted to justify his invasion as necessary to protect local Russian speakers. But, after seizing places like Melitopol, his forces there are largely being treated as foreign occupiers rather than liberators.

“He thought in these towns we’d be happy and meet them with Russian flags, but no one here was waiting for Russia,” said Andriy Radchenko, a 41-year-old surgeon in Melitopol. “We want to demoralize them, to erode their spirit.”

Thousands protested on Saturday in other occupied cities and towns. The largest protests were in the neighboring regional capital of Kherson, where one man jumped atop a passing Russian armored vehicle and waved a large Ukrainian flag to cheers from the crowd.

The resistance of the local population in predominantly Russian-speaking cities is a challenge to Mr. Putin. Russia’s soldiers, who were told they were on a mission to liberate a brotherly nation from neo-Nazi rulers, will now have to suppress the very people they are purporting to protect.

[...]

People in Melitopol mostly speak Russian, in part because the Soviets suppressed Ukrainian culture and mandated use of Russian. Most switch freely between the two, which are linguistically similar, and many are speaking Ukrainian as a form of passive resistance.

On March 1, three days after Russian troops took control, a few hundred people gathered in a central square for a prayer meeting. They sang the national anthem, waved Ukrainian flags and held signs including one reading: “Melitopol is our land.”

[...]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/occupied-ukrainian-towns-want-russian-troops-to-go-home-11646662450?mod=e2tw

Ukrainian public opinion and Russian-Ukrainian relations is why I never understood the Crimean annexation. The invasion irrevocably turned Ukrainian public opinion against Russia. Pro-Russian parties have never preformed as well as they did before 2014, and I'm sure a big part of that is simple: people don't like having their country invaded.

I understand the geopolitical rationale more than the political one, but Ukraine had recently extended the agreement for the Russian lease of the naval base in Sevastopol until 2042. So their military interests were guaranteed for several more decades.

The invasion only makes sense when taking into account opportunism  The timing of the 2014 Revolution allowed Russia to simply take advantage of the opportunity when the Ukrainian military was at its weakest and political leadership novices and in flux. But was it worth the cost of relations with Ukraine and especially the Ukrainian people?

[NOVA Green]

NYT posted a short story about 30 minutes ago.

Ukrainians successfully repelled a Russian attempt to retake the airport in Mykolaiv today (Monday).

Some good news at least on the Southern Front.

"MYKOLAIV, Ukraine — A fierce tank battle erupted on Monday between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops defending the airport in Mykolaiv, with blasts that could be heard  throughout the strategically important southern city.

By evening, however, the sound of guns had died down, and Ukrainian officials declared that their forces had once again repelled the Russian onslaught.

“They are retreating and running away,” Vitaliy Kim, the Mykolaiv region governor said in a message on Facebook. “Nothing remains of their tanks, as far as I understand.”

Mr. Kim said that a group of about 20 Russian soldiers had fled into the forest and urged residents to call the police should they encounter them."

[AndyHogan14]

FYI. The exchange rate for 1 USD is now 155 RUB.

[Storr]

Another one!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500859154075983873?s=20&t=tWaB2HnaCpYvXX...

[Person Man]

FYI. The exchange rate for 1 USD is now 155 RUB.

Literally cut in half.

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/haltman/status/1500884720976117770