Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[lfromnj]

Russia and Ukraine together produce 1/3 of the world's wheat.    Wheat prices have surged to twice of early 2021 levels with Ukraine export sources being cut off due to the conflict and the threat of Russia potentially holding back wheat exports.

Any chance of another Arab Spring ?

[Badger]

snip
All war crimes great and small,
Good people condemn them all.

“Both sides” assholes can f*** off and die.

There must be a special place in hell for Putin.

 This. and this goes equally so for the "I'm just a neutral and think we have to be nuanced in our approach here!1!!" dunderheads.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia and Ukraine together produce 1/3 of the world's wheat.    Wheat prices have surged to twice of early 2021 levels with Ukraine export sources being cut off due to the conflict and the threat of Russia potentially holding back wheat exports.

Any chance of another Arab Spring ?

Too much cynicism for that on the regional level, I'd think.

If the Russian army is weakened enough and distracted by Ukraine, a HTS-led offensive against the Syrian government cannot be ruled out.

[Storr]

Videos of Ukrainians towing Russian armored vehicles with their tractors will never get boring:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1500475231215001604?s=20&t=Kr28ChM...

[pppolitics]

Russia and Ukraine together produce 1/3 of the world's wheat.    Wheat prices have surged to twice of early 2021 levels with Ukraine export sources being cut off due to the conflict and the threat of Russia potentially holding back wheat exports.

Eat more rice

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1500588183662338048

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the war has devolved into Russia trying to turn Ukrainian cities into rubble without actually achieving control over many of them.


https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1500598902042542080

[Splash]

This isn't something you would be doing if you were certain of imminent victory.

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1500602398045315075

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This isn't something you would be doing if you were certain of imminent victory.

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1500602398045315075

I'm going to have to wait for visual confirmation on this one.

Assad will want to keep his army intact to guard his borders with the HTS-held, Turkish-held and SDF-held areas. It has worse training and worse equipment than the Russian army (quite possibly even worse than the Russian conscripts), except for perhaps the special forces Assad will really want to hold onto. $200-$300 would seem cheap for these units, depending on how far that goes in Syria.

If Russia is desperate for any kind of manpower, I can see them resorting to recruiting some of these units against Assad's wishes, but these guys struggled against various rebel groups even with the backing of the IRGC, Hezbollah and Russia itself (all of which are more formidable than the vast majority of forces Syria fields). How many of them even speak Russian?

[pppolitics]

This isn't something you would be doing if you were certain of imminent victory.

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1500602398045315075

Things keep getting more cartoonish every day.

What's next?

the US recruit the Taliban to fight in Ukraine?

[Frodo]

It doesn't mean, though, that Ukrainians on the Black Sea coast should relax their guard:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500597144360734728

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MenshevikM/status/1500533387999813635?s=20&t=cIh-IKxKNoD...

[Logical]

Kharkiv is getting pulverized tonight. Bombs, rockets and artillery strikes have all been reported. The sirens have sounded for at least 2 hours without stopping. The Russians are reverting to their Grozny tactics.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/MenshevikM/status/1500533387999813635?s=20&t=cIh-IKxKNoD...

500$ this is a fake pr post by Russians. I highly doubt NATO would be placing random stickers like this.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MenshevikM/status/1500533387999813635?s=20&t=cIh-IKxKNoD...

500$ this is a fake pr post by Russians. I highly doubt NATO would be placing random stickers like this.

Exactly, the icing on top is the fact it's a Lenovo ThinkPad. I'd hope NATO would be giving allies better laptops than that. lol

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://twitter.com/MenshevikM/status/1500533387999813635?s=20&t=cIh-IKxKNoD...

DO NOT REMOVE THIS LABEL

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500584474471510027

[It’s so Joever]

Kharkiv is getting pulverized tonight. Bombs, rockets and artillery strikes have all been reported. The sirens have sounded for at least 2 hours without stopping. The Russians are reverting to their Grozny tactics.

And the West STILL won’t do anything. I agree with Zelensky that this is mass murder of the Ukrainian people, with the West watching and being complicit. It took us so long to even come close to sending some f**king airplanes for f**ks sake! And of course any discussion of a real response by NATO is met with “but nukes!” as if Russia isn’t literally only doing this because the worst they will face is sanctions they can survive.
In our couple decades of being an unrivaled superpower alliance, we collectively lost our ability to understand risk is what brought us there in the first place, and our attempts to desperately cling to a “status quo” that doesn’t exist anymore at all will only further enable our foreign adversaries abroad to commit horrid crimes against humanity.

The only cold comfort is that the Western politicians who were complicit in this will be held accountable by the media like with Afghanistan, but this time they actually will deserve it. Of course the bloody tyrant in the Kremlin and the ogres which surround him will remain and will continue this awfulness for years to come, and the worst is what will happen to the Ukrainian people. The best comparison is Syria, which is a horridly grim fate.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500584474471510027

Ukraine threatening to make the SZR for Putin-adjacent Russians what Mossad was for ex-Nazis 60 years ago!? Too based.

[NOVA Green]

This isn't something you would be doing if you were certain of imminent victory.

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1500602398045315075

I'm going to have to wait for visual confirmation on this one.

Assad will want to keep his army intact to guard his borders with the HTS-held, Turkish-held and SDF-held areas. It has worse training and worse equipment than the Russian army (quite possibly even worse than the Russian conscripts), except for perhaps the special forces Assad will really want to hold onto. $200-$300 would seem cheap for these units, depending on how far that goes in Syria.

If Russia is desperate for any kind of manpower, I can see them resorting to recruiting some of these units against Assad's wishes, but these guys struggled against various rebel groups even with the backing of the IRGC, Hezbollah and Russia itself (all of which are more formidable than the vast majority of forces Syria fields). How many of them even speak Russian?

What I *suspect* is going on here ties into the "1,000 Russian Mercs" story which I reported earlier today after hearing a mention of it on CNN on the TV background.

This also jives with multiple other reports, which we have seen over the past week about the poor military performance of Russian conscripts, most of whom had no idea they were going to Ukraine until after they crossed the border.

We also know about the critical role that Russian mercenaries have played in Libya & Syria (Among other recent actions), with a major oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

who runs "The Wagner Group".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

Here is a bit of context:

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-fallen-mercenaries-in-russias-dark-army/

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-what-russian-mercenearies-ukraine-president-zelensky-putin-1489364

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/06/what-is-wagner-group-russia-mercenaries-military-contractor/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/10/marat-gabidullin-russian-mercenary-wagner

[compucomp]

Crude oil jumps to highs not seen since 2008. Increases in gasoline prices have already been reported. There is undeniably strong anti-Russian fervor in the West right now but we'll see if that holds up when the economic effects of cutting off Russia are felt.

U.S. crude oil surged more than 8% in early trading on Sunday evening as the market continued to react to supply disruptions stemming from Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the possibility of a ban on Russian oil and natural gas.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, traded 8% higher to above $125 a barrel, the highest since mid-2008. At one point the price topped $130 a barrel.

The international benchmark, Brent crude, traded 9% higher to $128.60, also the highest price seen since 2008.

“Oil is rising on the prospect for a full embargo of Russian oil and products,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital. “Already high gasoline prices are going to keep going up in a jarring fashion. Prices in some states will be pushing $5 pretty quickly.”

[NOVA Green]

Kharkiv is getting pulverized tonight. Bombs, rockets and artillery strikes have all been reported. The sirens have sounded for at least 2 hours without stopping. The Russians are reverting to their Grozny tactics.

....

The only cold comfort is that the Western politicians who were complicit in this will be held accountable by the media like with Afghanistan, but this time they actually will deserve it. Of course the bloody tyrant in the Kremlin and the ogres which surround him will remain and will continue this awfulness for years to come, and the worst is what will happen to the Ukrainian people. The best comparison is Syria, which is a horridly grim fate.

Ok--- Basically regardless of all of the other points you made regarding Ukraine, which I may or may not vehemently agree / disagree with, completely got lost to me at Afghanistan.

If you are talking about the US Media (As opposed to "Western Media"), I could and can make an extremely strong argument about how for the past 40+ Years US MSM has done an extremely poor job of covering Afghanistan.

There are obvious exceptions, including former reports for the NYT, WP, and WSJ many of whom are now retired and in couple cases deceased.

Sure you can buy a copy of The Afghanistan Papers (2021) in hardcover new for $15, some pretty good reads on the Washington Post shortly before the Afghan Gvt fell.

Decent coverage on a range of items in the WP, WSJ, & NYT shortly before the Afghan Gvt fell.

Overall, I would posit that "Western Media Coverage" of the "Fall of Kabul" was generally poorly written human interest stories, while neglecting the fact that for the most part they had not been telling the truth as journalists and part of the "Western Media" from shortly post 9 / 11 era.

Don't even get me started on US Media cheerleading for Iraq War 2.0


Totally get it... you are angry... you are upset....

What is going on is blatantly and patently wrong at ever moral level.

There are times watching the footage and reading the reports, it makes me feel absolutely powerless.

Still, you lost me at "Media Coverage of Afghanistan"   

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/MenshevikM/status/1500533387999813635?s=20&t=cIh-IKxKNoD...

500$ this is a fake pr post by Russians. I highly doubt NATO would be placing random stickers like this.

When I worked at a large supercomputing center with lots of inventory and resources, we had a very similar inventory tagging system. That in itself is not implausible.

[Aurelius]

Kharkiv is getting pulverized tonight. Bombs, rockets and artillery strikes have all been reported. The sirens have sounded for at least 2 hours without stopping. The Russians are reverting to their Grozny tactics.

And the West STILL won’t do anything. I agree with Zelensky that this is mass murder of the Ukrainian people, with the West watching and being complicit. It took us so long to even come close to sending some f**king airplanes for f**ks sake! And of course any discussion of a real response by NATO is met with “but nukes!” as if Russia isn’t literally only doing this because the worst they will face is sanctions they can survive.
In our couple decades of being an unrivaled superpower alliance, we collectively lost our ability to understand risk is what brought us there in the first place, and our attempts to desperately cling to a “status quo” that doesn’t exist anymore at all will only further enable our foreign adversaries abroad to commit horrid crimes against humanity.

The only cold comfort is that the Western politicians who were complicit in this will be held accountable by the media like with Afghanistan, but this time they actually will deserve it. Of course the bloody tyrant in the Kremlin and the ogres which surround him will remain and will continue this awfulness for years to come, and the worst is what will happen to the Ukrainian people. The best comparison is Syria, which is a horridly grim fate.

We are not obligated to sacrifice the entire existence of our civilization to our own sense of moral obligation. Some risks are too dangerous to take.

[pppolitics]

Where is Charlie Wilson?