Will Asians (as well as half-asians) stay in the Democratic Party?

[Sestak]

Depends entirely on the GOP.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Depends entirely on the GOP.

[UlmerFudd]

Depends entirely on the GOP.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

An obvious statement, but one that hasn't been discussed much here: Asian Americans are not monolithic. If anything, they're the most diverse racial group in the US. Besides cultural differences, there are salient economic differences too:





So in the event of a GOP realignment, richer Asian groups like Indians would trend GOP, but poorer ones like the Hmong will likely stay with the Dems.

As for the original question, it's going to get worse for the GOP before it's going to get better. Especially on identity issues. Drawing from my own anecdotal evidence from my family, many first-gen Asian immigrants don't emphasize social issues. They come here to get a better life, i.e. get rich, which is why many (like my own dad) like the GOP's economic policies and overlook (or even support) their social policies. After all, many have come from socially conservative backgrounds; many grew up as part of the ethnic majorities (or for Indians, privileged castes).

But for 1.5-gens and second gens like myself, we grew up in a world where our identities are defined by our minority status. As such, we are not going to flock en masse to a party that holds that minority status like an axe above our heads. As the older generation dies off or becomes attuned to living as a minority in a white-dominated country, and as the younger generation finds their own place in America's political arena, the Dem trend ain't reversing itself anytime soon.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Also, keep an eye out for Asian-American voter turnout to increase. Currently, Asian American turnout rates are abysmal, for the same reason Hispanic turnout rates are abysmal. You have an immigrant-heavy population, where most non-immigrants are young and thus cannot vote or unwilling to vote (the youth's poor turnout striking here), and where immigrants are often hampered by a lack of familiarity with English or the political environment here.

That doesn't let either political party off the hook. Too long Asian Americans have been ignored, either because of "muh small population" or "muh concentration in safe states" or outright racism.

But that's changing. We're already seeing more and more Asian candidates in the arena, either running in them or outright winning. One of them (Kamala Harris) may become the next President of the United States in four or eight years. And the political parties are waking up to the reality as they try to court the disparate Asian groups. Add the Asian youth turning out more as they get older, and turnout will increase. If the Asian Dem trend continues, well, good luck GOP.

[Kamala's side hoe]

An obvious statement, but one that hasn't been discussed much here: Asian Americans are not monolithic. If anything, they're the most diverse racial group in the US. Besides cultural differences, there are salient economic differences too:





So in the event of a GOP realignment, richer Asian groups like Indians would trend GOP, but poorer ones like the Hmong will likely stay with the Dems.

This statistic hides educational attainment, socioeconomic, and resultant residential divides within the Chinese American community. No other Asian American subgroup has experienced so many distinct waves of immigration from multiple jurisdictions and class levels.

Drawing from my own anecdotal evidence from my family, many first-gen Asian immigrants don't emphasize social issues. They come here to get a better life, i.e. get rich, which is why many (like my own dad) like the GOP's economic policies and overlook (or even support) their social policies. After all, many have come from socially conservative backgrounds; many grew up as part of the ethnic majorities (or for Indians, privileged castes).

This is precisely why Trump did better among immigrants than among native-born Asian Americans.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

As I said earlier, both parties and the electoral process have their work cut out for them:

Report: Asian American Electorate Marginalized

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[pbrower2a]

I don't think any party can win 80% of the college-educated,

Ike did. But the college-educated demographic was much more WASP than it is now.

Obama did well among them, and he had a similar temperament to Eisenhower.

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Young, college-educated voters are often heavily in debt due to student loans, and as a general rule, debtors tend to go left-wing and creditors tend to go right-wing. They may be more dependent upon their employers, but they have good cause to want loose fiscal and monetary policy to reduce the relative burden of debt and have a more vibrant economy that makes discharging debt easier. Creditors want debt to hurt. Think of the contrast between large land-owners and tenant farmers often in debt to their employers. 

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A barista or retail sales clerk with a college degree may have nothing in common with an anti-intellectual, economic elitist like Donald Trump. More troublesome for the Republicans may be that government employees are heavily college-educated people who know that they have no chance piercing the low, rigid glass ceiling in corporate bureaucracies. Again, look at the debt-asset ratio, and someone with a huge student loan balance and a near-minimum-wage job has no stake in economic conservatism.   
 

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In 2008 even the usual relationship between income and partisan affinity was the opposite of what it usually is in direction, if not in magnitude.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I think the really crucial question is whether the Asian voters will go the way of the white ethnic blocs or whether they will remain distinct from whites.

From 2016 to 2020, Asians trended in the same direction as Blacks and Latinos, but the opposite direction as college-educated Whites and White Catholics. This and the CA-GOV recall results should answer your question.

[pikachu]

I think I'm interested in situations like Canada, where the Conservatives (even with people compared to Trump and his ilk like the Fords) are able to rise quite healthy (even domineering) margins in Asian demographics.

Perhaps one wedge could be economic populism? In New Zealand, Chinese voters are staunchly National as the Labour/Green/Maori parties have become increasingly focused on the effect foreign capital (mostly Chinese) is having on urban housing. Same deal in areas of Canada as well.

I didn’t follow Canada 2021, but the Tories move from being the Anglosphere right-wing party that figured out how to win ethnic minorities to crashing with Chinese voters is fascinating. Would be interested in knowing what’s happened in Australia/New Zealand since 2018 also.

[Gracile]

I would be interested in seeing more granular data about Asian voter preferences across ethnic lines - as well as by class and location. Judging by precinct data, it seems like inner-city, working class Chinese and Indian neighborhoods had marked shifts toward the GOP in 2020. It's harder to say if the same held true in suburban areas, since Asians tend to be less concentrated (living in neighborhoods that are majority white or in some cases with a larger non-white population like Latinos), so the swings in those areas could be attributed to these other racial groups. I would also assume that some ethnic groups, specifically Vietnamese-Americans, had large shifts regardless of where they lived.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I would be interested in seeing more granular data about Asian voter preferences across ethnic lines - as well as by class and location. Judging by precinct data, it seems like inner-city, working class Chinese and Indian neighborhoods had marked shifts toward the GOP in 2020. It's harder to say if the same held true in suburban areas, since Asians tend to be less concentrated (living in neighborhoods that are majority white or in some cases with a larger non-white population like Latinos), so the swings in those areas could be attributed to these other racial groups. I would also assume that some ethnic groups, specifically Vietnamese-Americans, had large shifts regardless of where they lived.

Which neighborhoods/metro areas are you referring to? I noticed that Asian areas generally had smaller R swings in 2020 than Latino areas (San Francisco proper might be an exception). Per the NYT precinct map, there were some heavily Asian suburban areas (at least in the Portland area) where Trump's percentage went down from 2016, and the areas with a Vietnamese presence didn't really swing R even if Trump's percentage went up because Biden also gained from HRC. I also remember there wasn't much of a R swing anywhere in Oakland or Long Beach.

2016-2020 swings don't tell us very much about long-term trends. I certainly don't think Asians will ever be as one-sidedly D as blacks have been post-1980, but I can't see AAPI voting patterns converging with any segment of the white vote either. Half-Asians like Bagel23, Forumlurker161, and West_Midlander may be a different story.

[Skill and Chance]

Most likely yes.