New Tradesports rankings

[Boris]

Why are is the Democratic Party doing so much better all of a sudden?

Probably more of a "national climate" thing. Once specific candidates are nominated and debate intensifies, the numbers will probably tighten.

[Boris]

When is Gore going to start dropping?

as the Iowa Caucus nears.

[Boris]

What the hell is Sanford doing at 0.6?

[Boris]

So "Hillary is far, far more right wing than Edwards and Obama"?

LOL.  Uh, I'm very familiar with her Senate voting record.  It's the same as Edwards (slightly more lefty in fact than his was) and no different than Obama since he entered the Senate. 

Look it up.

Hillary is pro-war, those two are not. Plus she served on the board of directors for WAL-MART. She is no liberal.

Incorrect.  Hillary Clinton is anti-war.

In what way?

As in she'll withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq if elected President? I don't think Nixonian is an apt analogy either; she's not promising "peace with honor" or being intentionally vague. Hillary has made it quite clear that she'll initiate a rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq if elected President.

Honestly, how is her position on Iraq any different from any other Democratic candidate? They'll all do the same thing if elected. It's all about finding the most electable candidate at this point.

[Boris]

So "Hillary is far, far more right wing than Edwards and Obama"?

LOL.  Uh, I'm very familiar with her Senate voting record.  It's the same as Edwards (slightly more lefty in fact than his was) and no different than Obama since he entered the Senate. 

Look it up.

Hillary is pro-war, those two are not. Plus she served on the board of directors for WAL-MART. She is no liberal.

Incorrect.  Hillary Clinton is anti-war.

In what way?

As in she'll withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq if elected President? I don't think Nixonian is an apt analogy either; she's not promising "peace with honor" or being intentionally vague. Hillary has made it quite clear that she'll initiate a rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq if elected President.

Honestly, how is her position on Iraq any different from any other Democratic candidate? They'll all do the same thing if elected. It's all about finding the most electable candidate at this point.

She still believes going to war was a good idea though. So she still gets a pro-war label and deserves nothing less.

Uh, no she doesn't. Let's use some of those inference skills, shall we? If one supports rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, one has most likely concluded that the war effort is futile or has failed. Therefore, logically, one would not support going to war in the first place. Unless you are suggesting that she is a complete idiot, which is, of course, a different discussion.

Perhaps you are referring to her unwillingness to apologize for the Iraq War vote? Big deal. "Apologizing" in politics is an utterly meaningless gesture. It is nothing more than political posturing; its sole purpose is to gain political capital. Apparently, Hillary doesn't believe apologizing will gain her any such capitol, so she won't do it. If she thought it would gain her political capital, then you would have seen an apology several months ago.

[Boris]

I was speaking from a tactical standpoint, operating under the assumption that the goal of military intervention in Iraq was to spread Democracy to the Middle East (which is how the President today justifies it). If one supports rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, one most likely believes that military intervention in Iraq has failed to achieve that objective, and thus, would not support the same strategy were they to do it over again. If HRC defines the goal of military intervention to strictly depose of Saddam Hussein and his Ba'athist loyalists (no subsequent nation-building), then the position you mentioned would be logically consistent.

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I believe Clinton once said that if she were President in 2002, we would not have gone to war. Of course, I don't quite see how that makes any sense. So she authorizes the war as the Junior Senator from New York, but would not have authorized it if she were President? I'll give you that her position on Iraq is "shady" at worst, but I still feel that the term "pro-war" is an egregious distortion.

[Boris]

Congress "authorization" was not really a declaration of war so much as it was a decision that we believe there is reason to suspect that war might become necessary and as such, we will give the authority to our president to make that decision based on the facts at the time, without having to deal with an emergency resolution that might not occur in a timely manner.

In theory, that is true. However, I think that all the legislators knew prior to the vote, that, in practice, they were voting on whether to go to war with Iraq (unless they're all incredibly naive). I personally believe that Clinton's vote was politically motivated because the case for going to war was popular at the time.

[Boris]

So if tommorow Thompson came out and said he's not running, who'd gain the most?

The Democratic Party

[Boris]

lol @ the McCain resurgence.  Of course, I'm rooting for him.  Hard.

I'm rooting for Romney. If he's nominated, the Democratic Nominee might as well declare him/herself to be the President-elect, form a transitional team, and start naming cabinet positions.

[Boris]

Why the hell is Ron Paul so high? Does he even register in public opinion polls?

[Boris]

Obama leads Clinton on last transaction 38.4 to 38.0.

Tradesports people are idiots. Where exactly is Obama ahead? He's even with Clinton in Iowa and trailing her in New Hampshire, Nevada, and probably South Carolina (polls seem to be all over the place). And then he's down by double digits throughout the rest of nation with the exception of Illinois.

But then again, given the Gore and Paul numbers, I guess this shouldn't be that much of a surprise.

[Boris]

I'm glad Paul is doing better than McCain, but just how well is Paul actually polling these days?

I don't think he breaks out of the MoE. McCain is at like 10-12% nationwide, I believe.

[Boris]

The fact that Fred Thompson, who is polling second place nationally among Republicans according to Rasmussen, is doing worse on Tradesports than a candidate who doesn't even break out of the MoE says a lot about the value of these rankings. At least on the GOP side. The Dem rankings are pretty accurate for now, with the exception of Gore.

[Boris]

I still think Giuliani is vastly overvalued.  People are being taken in by the CW that says that Huckabee surging in IA is "good news" for Giuliani since it hurts Romney.  And that's distracting them from the fact that Giuliani's position in most of the early primary states is crumbling.

Good point. It kind of looks like the Republican electorate has decided not to go with Rudy but they aren't really sure where to go yet. They are obviously starting to lean towards Huckabee though.

leaning? The guy is ahead in Iowa, ahead in South Carolina, and ahead nationally, which may indicate some presence among the Super Tuesday states (of course, if he wins Iowa and South Carolina, he probably has the nomination anyway).

If he keeps this momentum up for a month (an eternity on the political timescale), then he's the man the Democrats need to take down.

[Boris]

He's only leading nationally according to one pollster, Rasmussen.  And Giuliani has historically underperformed in Rasmussen polls relative to other pollsters.  I'm going to want to see some polls from other pollsters before I believe that he's actually leading nationally. 

True, but I tend to put my faith into Rasmussen, who was more or less dead on in 2004 and 2006. But yeah, it'd be nice to see some other credible pollsters confirm or refute his numbers.

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Have any post-Huckabee momentum polls been released from Michigan, Florida, or Nevada? I can't seem to find any; I'm more or less operating under the assumption that Huckabee has gained traction in these states. I know the 'Huckabeast' is a bit short on the cash, so that might impede his efforts to make headway into the large states such as Michigan or Florida.

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I agree. Obviously, it's impossible to predict who will win the GOP nomination when the facts are laid out. The race is simply too fluid with too many variables to consider.