How did Rod Blum survive? (user search)
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  How did Rod Blum survive? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Rod Blum survive?  (Read 1112 times)
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« on: November 13, 2016, 02:26:57 PM »
« edited: November 13, 2016, 02:30:54 PM by Maxwell »

I have to say it - Blum, even for how conservative he is, is a strong incumbent. He runs very lightweight ads about how he's a coach, and he's very convincing. The democrat bench here is large but thin in terms of talent. He's got that "golly gee" charisma that Iowa seems to love. I think he's a very strong candidate for higher office beyond this point.

and looking at the Trump margin in this district - he ran AHEAD of Trump! Trump won the district by around 3, Blum won by close to 8 points. That's a walloping.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2016, 04:12:40 PM »

Anesa Kajtazovic or Tyler Olson would have won. Pat Murphy and Chet Culver probably would have won.
Culver lives in IA-03 I believe, but Iowans moving to run for Congress is not uncommon. Anyway one Iowa Democrat on this board (PAK Man I think, maybe he's the only one) said many Iowa Democrats don't like him. I also don't think Murphy would do much better in a rematch. The other two are untested (to my knowledge), but I think Blum would have still been dragged across by Trump and won.

Once again, Blum did much, much better than Trump in this district.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2016, 04:44:10 PM »

It's a little amazing (and is part of the understated story of the election) that Republicans ended up failing to knock off a single rural Midwestern Democrat. Trump won, by pretty solid margins and with massive swings from 2012, the districts held by Dave Loebsack, Ron Kind, Tim Walz, Collin Peterson, and Rick Nolan. But all five of them were reelected -- Kind was obviously lucky to be unopposed, but that shouldn't take away from the achievements of the other four.

Walz has always been a pretty impressive incumbent in my mind, seeing as his district was pretty neutral in years when he won convincingly. Also - not a blue dog.

Peterson's district is his as long as he wants it - but no democrat will ever win after he leaves. I'm going to guess his district voted for Trump by at least 13, maybe more.

Nolan winning was a bit of a surprise to me considering how Minnesota went, and he's to the left of both Peterson and Walz, and he doesn't like fundraising. I have no idea how Nolan won in all actuality.

That all said I'm still pissed that certified wacko Jason Lewis managed to snag a house seat.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2016, 04:49:58 PM »

Trump won MN-7 by... 30.

^ Yeah, from the SOS site:

CD1: 53/38 Trump
CD2: 46/45 Trump
CD3: 50/40 Clinton
CD4: 61/30 Clinton
CD5: 73/18 Clinton
CD6: 58/33 Trump
CD7: 61/31 Trump
CD8: 54/38 Trump

oh my god Peterson is a legend.

ugh lewis ran AHEAD of trump what a god damn mess democrats i mean christ
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