Marist OH-SEN: Vance+1

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1584395555928563715

[Minnesota Mike]

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-and-Tables_202210211358.pdf

47 -47 with those who will definitely vote.

[2016]

Marist doesn't weigh their Polls by Education like others do. That's why this will be a big miss again by them like in previous Cycles. No way is Ryan at 47 %.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I'm hoping this means Democrats are still in play here. Democrats keeping all their seats plus taking PA and OH would put them in a good position for 2024

[UncleSam]

They really put out a RV poll two weeks before an election lmfao

Bold strategy cotton

[S019]

Ryan will get 45%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't Lean R, all the polls like NV keep showing high R leads it's not

[wbrocks67]

They really put out a RV poll two weeks before an election lmfao

Bold strategy cotton

"definitely voting" is somewhat more helpful, but they also should just have an LV model that includes "definitely" and "likely" voting from their questionaire

[Person Man]

Not dead yet. Ryan probably leads until 10 or 11. Just like Kerry did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not dead yet. Ryan probably leads until 10 or 11. Just like Kerry did.

Cincy suburbs became more D after Strickland won in 2006, Burbs in Cincy we're much more R in 2000/2004

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not dead yet. Ryan probably leads until 10 or 11. Just like Kerry did.

Or an OH-2020 situation where things look surprisingly good for the Dems for a little bit before the floor falls out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not dead yet. Ryan probably leads until 10 or 11. Just like Kerry did.

Or an OH-2020 situation where things look surprisingly good for the Dems for a little bit before the floor falls out.

It's called Early voting just like the bottom didn't drop out in 2018 and 2020 users think it's same day voting we are voting as we speak which Ds win a lion share of Early voting, you heard Pat Ryan and Mary Peltola didn't crater either because of Early voting

[Person Man]

Not dead yet. Ryan probably leads until 10 or 11. Just like Kerry did.

Or an OH-2020 situation where things look surprisingly good for the Dems for a little bit before the floor falls out.

Like I said, Republicans would scream "VOTER FRAUD" if it happened to them.

[wbrocks67]

It's interesting though how Siena and Marist show the same result in the Senate race, but Siena shows a much stronger peformance for DeWine (+24) compared to Marist (+13)

[wbrocks67]

Top issues among RV:
Inflation - 46%
Preserving democracy - 21%
Abortion - 19%
Health care - 6%
Crime - 4%
Immigration - 4%

This is why the "vibe shift" or "GOP winning on all the top issues" narrative is a bit bunked. It changes quite a bit from state to state and poll to poll depending on how the question is asked. To act as if things like democracy and abortion aren't mattering to voters is just untrue. And even here - supposed top GOP national issues like crime and immigration are not resonating.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ryan will get 45%

Yup, possibly even 46% Much beyond that? Nah.

This race is Likely R, if not Safe.

[Orwell]

Top issues among RV:
Inflation - 46%
Preserving democracy - 21%
Abortion - 19%
Health care - 6%
Crime - 4%
Immigration - 4%

This is why the "vibe shift" or "GOP winning on all the top issues" narrative is a bit bunked. It changes quite a bit from state to state and poll to poll depending on how the question is asked. To act as if things like democracy and abortion aren't mattering to voters is just untrue. And even here - supposed top GOP national issues like crime and immigration are not resonating.

By far the top issue is GOP leaning, knowing Ohio (2004 rings a bell) evangelicals make up a decent part of "Abortion" and almost certainly lean GOP on Crime and Immigration