I looks like 2004 will be a whole lot like 2000...
A new ARG poll of 600 likely voters produced:
Kerry 45%
Bush 44%
Nader 4%
The margin of Error on the poll is +/- 4% 19 times out of 20
Unlike the Granite State poll showing Kerry +15 in New Hampshire, which was a methodological disaster, this ARG poll actually looks pretty good.
The Florida ARG poll contacted 44% Democrats, 41% Republicans, which closely matches the 41%/39% Democratic voter registration advantage in Florida.
The ratio of Repubicans to Democrats typically shifts 2 or 3% towards the GOP when you narrow from "all" registered voters to "likely" voters. In this poll the Democratic advantage actually grew by 1% - but that is a very minor quibble.
This looks like a poll we can trust. - it's a dead heat in Florida - deja vue all over again...
http://americanresearchgroup.com/fl/
