CQPolitics House Ratings 2010

[Mr.Phips]

WI-08 probably should be likely Democrat as well.  Same with NY-19 and probably GA-08. 

[Mr.Phips]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

He did vote for cap-and-trade (can't figure out why in that CD of all of them) and Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

That definitely makes it worth lean D, but I'd wait at least 6 months before going any further.

As for Indiana, whenever the economy is really bad, anything can and will happen up there.  Whether or not the condition is satisfied or whether anything does *actually* happen, you need to wait some time to find out.

I basically agree with Moderate on anything New Jersey (that I've seen so far, ever).

The economy was really bad in 1982 and only one incumbent lost his seat in Indiana and that was to a pretty strong Democrat after the Republican got caught for DWI.

[Mr.Phips]

OH-01 should all be tossups.

OH-01 reminds me a lot of KY-03. Chabot may have been an awesome incumbent, but I don't see how he gets a foothold against an incumbent Driehaus, even without Obama on the ticket increasing African American turnout.

If McCain had one this would almost certainly have been the case. But then if McCain was President it would make sense to move every seat at least one category to the Democrats. I think people are upset and will take it out on democratic incumbents, and then promptly vote to reelect Obama since the alternatives will be so bad. That is bad news for Corzine and Deeds, and for democratic incumbents next year.

You think Democrats will lose the House?

[Mr.Phips]

What do people think about MD-01?

Kratovil has a shot at a second term if Harris is the nominee again. So far no Eastern Shore Republican has jumped into the race, which is odd, because if they win the primary, they're pretty much guaranteed to win. Kratovil needs undiluted Eastern Shore regionalism on his side to win.

The problem for Kratovil is those horribly Republican suburban parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore.  He needs to hold Republicans below 60% in them and get above 60% on the Eastern Shore. 

[Mr.Phips]

MI-07, PA-10 and OH-15 should be added to your list of weak Dems. PA-10 is a ruby red district. Carnet survived 2008 true, but there is no obvious Dem base in the district and with a stronger challenger this seat would be a good pickup. MI-07 was only lost by 4 points. OH-15 The Dem underperformed vary badly in 2008 and would be a prime target if things are looking good for the GOP. Lastly CO-04 is another one that would go to us with a competant challenger and a good environment.

Carney won PA-10 by a 56%-44% margin even as McCain was winning the district.  He should be in pretty good shape. 

[Mr.Phips]

Melancon would be a moron try and run against Vitter in 2010.  He would probably lose by 20 points. 

[Mr.Phips]

Some FL-08 news:
Grayson: GOP wants 'you to die'

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27726.html

Just one entertaining stumble after another (if you want to call this a stumble).  This kinda thing shouldn't come as any sort of surprise, though, considering he hired blogger Matt Stoller as his Policy Adviser.

Grayson is absolutely correct on this.