CQPolitics House Ratings 2010

[Sam Spade]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

He did vote for cap-and-trade (can't figure out why in that CD of all of them) and Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

That definitely makes it worth lean D, but I'd wait at least 6 months before going any further.

As for Indiana, whenever the economy is really bad, anything can and will happen up there.  Whether or not the condition is satisfied or whether anything does *actually* happen, you need to wait some time to find out.

I basically agree with Moderate on anything New Jersey (that I've seen so far, ever).

[Sam Spade]

NM-02 (...) should all be tossups.

Why? People voted for him because they liked him and didn't mind that he was a Democrat, not because he was a Democrat. I don't think he's going anywhere outside of a Republican wave year (unless he's had real problems settling into his new job or been amassing a far-left voting record, and nobody's told me.)

He did vote for cap-and-trade (can't figure out why in that CD of all of them) and Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

That definitely makes it worth lean D, but I'd wait at least 6 months before going any further.

As for Indiana, whenever the economy is really bad, anything can and will happen up there.  Whether or not the condition is satisfied or whether anything does *actually* happen, you need to wait some time to find out.

I basically agree with Moderate on anything New Jersey (that I've seen so far, ever).

The economy was really bad in 1982 and only one incumbent lost his seat in Indiana and that was to a pretty strong Democrat after the Republican got caught for DWI.

That's the reason why I said "maybe" and not "definitely". 

[Sam Spade]

Steve Pearce will be re-running for his old House seat against him.

Ah.

As you may notice, I'm not following this all that intensely yet.

You're not alone.  I doubt I'll put anything out until after the elections this year, though I'm trying to keep track of things already.

But there are a few states that I always watch closely for personal reasons, New Mexico being one of them.  Interestingly enough, it appears that Republicans also already have their candidate for NM-01 and have cleared the field for him (Hispanic guy within their organization).