2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 167101 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #1275 on: July 23, 2020, 07:05:42 PM »
For what it's worth, the Civiqs tracker has the GCB at D+10, its highest level since at least June of last year (thats when the tracking began)

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1276 on: July 23, 2020, 08:18:21 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 23, 2020, 06:01:08 PM

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

Polling in Iowa systematically underestimates the GOP. Remember when Reynolds was trailing Hubbell?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1277 on: July 23, 2020, 09:47:45 PM »
Quote from: Lucas Whitefur on July 23, 2020, 08:18:21 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 23, 2020, 06:01:08 PM

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

Polling in Iowa systematically underestimates the GOP. Remember when Reynolds was trailing Hubbell?


Nah, it’s Tilt D at this point
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1278 on: July 24, 2020, 05:39:30 AM »
Quote from: Lucas Whitefur on July 23, 2020, 08:18:21 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 23, 2020, 06:01:08 PM

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

Polling in Iowa systematically underestimates the GOP. Remember when Reynolds was trailing Hubbell?


That may be true, but that’s an argument for it to be Toss-Up, not Lean R.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #1279 on: July 24, 2020, 11:43:07 AM »
Quote from: Lucas Whitefur on July 23, 2020, 08:18:21 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 23, 2020, 06:01:08 PM

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

Polling in Iowa systematically underestimates the GOP. Remember when Reynolds was trailing Hubbell?


I don't think this is that true of Selzer though (though I'd be happy to be corrected)? Even she had Greenfield +3 not too long ago.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1280 on: July 24, 2020, 11:45:24 AM »
Quote from: tagimaucia on July 24, 2020, 11:43:07 AM
I don't think this is that true of Selzer though (though I'd be happy to be corrected)? Even she had Greenfield +3 not too long ago.

Even gold standard Selzer had Hubbell ahead by 2 in their November poll, he ended up losing by 3.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1281 on: July 24, 2020, 12:17:41 PM »
Tbh I think Hegar will do better than Greenfield in the end.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1282 on: July 24, 2020, 12:23:22 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on July 24, 2020, 12:17:41 PM
Tbh I think Hegar will do better than Greenfield in the end.

Yeah, the onus is on Iowa Democrats to prove they can win a race where polling is close.
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Gracile
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« Reply #1283 on: July 24, 2020, 02:56:05 PM »
Inside Elections made two rating changes today, both toward Democrats:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-july-24-2020

NJ-02: Tilt Republican to Tossup
TX-22: Tilt Republican to Tossup
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1284 on: July 24, 2020, 03:51:11 PM »
A new Echelon Insights poll (July 17-22, 1000 LV) has the GCB at D+14 (51-37).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1285 on: July 27, 2020, 09:23:59 AM »
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1286 on: July 27, 2020, 09:35:38 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 27, 2020, 09:23:59 AM


The fact that Gimenez has higher name recognition than Powell leads me to believe that Powell has more room to grow.  Gimenez will not survive a 20 point loss by Trump in this district.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1287 on: July 27, 2020, 10:39:20 AM »
A Republican internal also showed Shalala losing by 6 in 2018. This district is even more Democratic than FL-27, so let's say I'm skeptical that Gimenez will run 20+ points ahead of Trump.
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Gracile
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« Reply #1288 on: July 27, 2020, 11:02:15 AM »
KS-04 Sedgwick County, KS Poll from The Progress Campaign:

https://becd085d-5f24-4974-b9b5-73518197155a.filesusr.com/ugd/83fab9_67a55571d4354718bad9c7b632d5fc0e.pdf

Ron Estes (R-inc) 50%
Laura Lombard (D) 43%

Again, this is a poll of only the Sedgwick County part of KS-04. Estes won this county 55-45 in 2018, for reference.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1289 on: July 27, 2020, 11:52:22 AM »
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« Reply #1290 on: July 27, 2020, 01:51:44 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on July 27, 2020, 11:52:22 AM

This district was Trump +15 in 2016. If this is anywhere close to reality, Biden wins Texas.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1291 on: July 27, 2020, 02:59:07 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on July 27, 2020, 11:52:22 AM

Buh buh but it's not there yet!
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1292 on: July 27, 2020, 03:34:40 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2020, 04:08:41 PM by Monstro »
Quote from: LCameronOR on July 27, 2020, 01:51:44 PM
This district was Trump +15 in 2016. If this is anywhere close to reality, Biden wins Texas.

This was also Cruz +5 in 2018. Seems clear to me that Texas is moving leftwards at a pace none of us could've imagined & that Beto's 2018 performance is closer to the Dems current floor than ceiling.

Like how the California GOPs losses in 2018 extended far beyond the House districts in Orange County, I think Texas is gonna provide some shocks and surprises this November.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #1293 on: July 27, 2020, 09:58:47 PM »
Quote from: Monstro on July 27, 2020, 03:34:40 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on July 27, 2020, 01:51:44 PM
This district was Trump +15 in 2016. If this is anywhere close to reality, Biden wins Texas.

This was also Cruz +5 in 2018. Seems clear to me that Texas is moving leftwards at a pace none of us could've imagined & that Beto's 2018 performance is closer to the Dems current floor than ceiling.

Like how the California GOPs losses in 2018 extended far beyond the House districts in Orange County, I think Texas is gonna provide some shocks and surprises this November.

Devin Nunes has to go as well. He won by only by 5 points in 2018, people talk about him as a super safe incumbent.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1294 on: July 27, 2020, 10:10:06 PM »
Quote from: Teflon Joe on July 27, 2020, 09:58:47 PM
Quote from: Monstro on July 27, 2020, 03:34:40 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on July 27, 2020, 01:51:44 PM
This district was Trump +15 in 2016. If this is anywhere close to reality, Biden wins Texas.

This was also Cruz +5 in 2018. Seems clear to me that Texas is moving leftwards at a pace none of us could've imagined & that Beto's 2018 performance is closer to the Dems current floor than ceiling.

Like how the California GOPs losses in 2018 extended far beyond the House districts in Orange County, I think Texas is gonna provide some shocks and surprises this November.

Devin Nunes has to go as well. He won by only by 5 points in 2018, people talk about him as a super safe incumbent.

I agree and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets another scare this year. But with the GOP no longer controlling the House, I think the determination & lust to unseat him has worn off. Unlike last time when he was running the Russian investigation & wielded real power, the most prominence he's gotten since has been about suing Twitter over his cow.
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OneJ
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« Reply #1295 on: July 28, 2020, 11:44:22 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on July 27, 2020, 11:52:22 AM


Holy moly...
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1296 on: July 28, 2020, 02:59:21 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2020, 03:43:48 PM by Make PA Blue Again! »
Colby College poll of ME-02

Golden (D-inc.): 45%
Craft (R): 33%
Other: 5%

https://t.co/bb15uw1OpO?amp=1
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S019
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« Reply #1297 on: July 28, 2020, 03:02:18 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on July 28, 2020, 02:59:21 PM
Colby College poll of ME-02

Golden (D-inc.): 45%
Crafts (R): 33%
Other: 5%

https://t.co/bb15uw1OpO?amp=1

Golden seems to be better shape than I thought. I currently have his race at a tossup, but I might have to move it to Lean D, especially since ME-02 at the presidential level looks closer than I expect, but I'd like to wait for more data before making conclusions.
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VAR
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« Reply #1298 on: July 29, 2020, 05:17:41 AM »
Reuters/Ipsos

Democratic 47%
Republican 39%
Other/undecided/will not vote 14%

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/bdwvkezzovm/Topline%20Reuters-Ipsos%20Core%20Political%207.28.pdf
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VAR
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« Reply #1299 on: July 29, 2020, 08:40:59 AM »
MN-02
Harper Polling (R)

Craig (D, inc.) 45%
Kistner (R) 36%

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/07/29/fundraising-prowess-may-not-be-enough-for-gop-house-challenger-tyler-kistner/
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