As do I. I have to believe that if Obama were to lose Nevada and New Mexico, then he won't win Colorado. It would have a very tight margin, though.
Hillary would probably beat McCain in the electoral college. She plays too well among Blue collar Democrats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and the elderly in Florida. She'd also win Arkansas for sure.
At base I think they're likely to correlate some, but New Mexico and Nevada have remarkably different demographics than Colorado. If Obama's "base" shifts more toward professionals and less toward lower middle class people, he could feasibly carry Colorado narrowly while losing the other two.
That they do .. I just have a hard time seeing Colorado flipping to Obama, especially if he loses its neighboring states. It will be very close either way for sure, but if he wins Nevada and NM, then he probably wins Colorado. He's just bleeding support badly right now and it's no telling if his ship sinks or recovers when the Dem race is decided.
