2013 Elections in Germany

[Hifly]

Why is Die Linke also so strong in East Frisia?

[Franknburger]

Congratulations to him on pissing off all of one of the SPD's two core regions...in a single sentence. Has he managed to annoy anyone in the Ruhr yet?

You mean, after he killed the red-green state government of North Rhine-Westphalia in 2005, had the SPD losing 6% there, and saw himself replaced as state PM by the first CDU PM in forty years?

[RogueBeaver]

Now unsourced speculation about Merkel retiring in 2016, which she's denying. If she intends to serve the full four year term, then presumably that means part of a fourth?

[Franknburger]

Now unsourced speculation about Merkel retiring in 2016, which she's denying. If she intends to serve the full four year term, then presumably that means part of a fourth?

Most likely a full third term means she would continue until at least 2019.

The short list of her possible successors is clear: von der Leyen, Altmaier, Pofalla, McAllister. The first three were all born in 1958  / 1959. If Merkel does not step down in 2016 but continues to  2019, they will be too old for one-full and two half terms. McAllister, OTOH, was born in 1971, and might take over in 2016 or 2019, but as well  wait until 2023 or so. As such, the 2016 retirement leaves more options for succession than serving the full term.

Asides, Merkel's husband was born in 1949, and would turn 70 in 2019, which might be a bit old to embark on the envisaged extensive travelling.

[RogueBeaver]

2019 seems an ideal time to bow out. 14 years is definitely long enough, graceful retirement and time for post-political life.

[Tender Branson]

New Infratest dimap poll:

42% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
13% Greens
  7% Left
  5% FDP         
  3% Pirates
  5% Others

47-45 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.

[Franknburger]

Tender, please! Either publish all incoming polls, or put individual polls into context. Infratest dimap has continuously been showing 2-3% more for the CDU than all other pollsters. And their latest results are exactly the same as last week, with the exception of -1% SPD and +1% Pirates.

Here is the latest-"poll of polls", covering 3 more new entries in addition to infratest dimap: Emnid (3.8.), TNS (5.8.), FORSA (7.8.) (Previous "poll of polls" in brackets):

CDU:        40.3 (40.4)
SPD:        24.8 (25.2)
Grüne:     13.5 (13.6)
Linke:        7.5  (7.4)
FDP:          5.0  (4.8 )
Pirates       2.8 (2.4)
AfD            2.3 (2.4)

It is called "Sommerloch"! Holiday season, nothing happening. Things will only start to get moving in 2-3 weeks from now - if at all. Otherwise, we will all be in for a long election night ...

[Franknburger]

In a previous post, I had been mocking about the crappy Green election posters. Here a few examples. First the original concept, with the top candidates:

Jürgen Trittin: "We bring new energy" (and you?)


Katrin Goering Eckhardt: "For courage, against poverty" (and you?)

Some thematic posters, on which the concept is half-way working:

"I say Hello Kita" (and you?)  [KITA=pre-school children day-care center]


"I don't want your debt" (and you?)


"What the farmer does not know, I won't eat" (and you?) [Variation of the Low-Saxon proverb "Wat de Buur net kennt, fret he net" - "A farmer only eats what he knows" -  which is used to depict a  conservative, traditionalist attitude].

And here it is getting really wild:

"My motha becomes boss" (and you?)


"Human before bank"  (and you?)

I still have no clue whom this campaign shall target. Thematically, there is something in it for everybody, from fiscal conservatives to globalisation critics. The picture language of the thematic posters  addresses potential protest (Linke and Pirate) voters, but they forgot to take  up any of the Pirate issues. The personality posters are for classical mid-age to elder voters, without adapting the second posters' text message to that group.
Another example of this balancing act (I saved the best for last):

"For fair rent instead of yield" (and you?)

[Franknburger]

Not that the Greens are the only ones running a crappy campaign. In fact, they are even ranked comparatively well in blogs of the German advertisement community.

Here is the FDP:

Dr. Philipp Rösler. Strong Centre. Only with us.


Rainer Brüderle. To keep Germany strong. Only with us.


Safe money. Only with us.

Innovation is something different.. Anyway, to add a grass-roots element, the FDP is offering an online tool for creating your own FDP poster. Some prototypes:

"Unburdening youngsters. by debt reduction. Well done, FDP." (Well done, Germany)
[The kid looks rather medium rare]


Rainer Brüderle: "Four good years for Germany. Well done, FDP." (Well done, Germany)

Unsurprisingly, not only FDP sympathisers have made use of the tool:

Rainer B., wine connoisseur from Landau: "Kicked-of sexism debate. Well done, FDP." (Well done, Germany.)
[Relates to Brüderle half-drunk making sexual advances on a female journalist during an unofficial press meeting]


FDP (65), party from Germany: "Got up from every crash.Well done, FDP." (Well done, Germany.)
Former FDP chairmen Guido Westerwelle and Jürgen Möllemann. Möllemann, a passionate parachute jumper, in 2003 died from a jump when his parachute did not open. On the day of his death, his parliamentary immunity had been revoked for alleged tax evasion and undocumented party financing in relation to arms deals.

[minionofmidas]

Half drunken? You mean, as in the most sober he's been in a decade?

[Tender Branson]

I like this one best:



"Surveillance State - Never Again !"

"Civil rights are non-negotiable ! For a life free of surveillance."

"Vote Pirates."

[Franknburger]

Yeah, the Pirates are definitely having the best posters.

A few more examples. All people on the posters are actual members, and the design has been done by volunteers:


"Father -  Father- Child"
 "We are striving for equal recognition of all models of life, where people take responsibility for each other"


"Why do I still not have Internet here?"

"For developing a future-oriented digital infrastructure all over the country (-side)."

 

"Markets need rules - People need Freedom"

"For an economic policy that aims at development opportunities and well-being of all humans."


"Basic income - this should be allowed to be said"

"Basic income secures existence and creates space for innovation".


"Addiction policy instead of War on Drugs"

"For a pragmatic addiction policy that educates consumers and protects non-consumers (of drugs)"


"Who is actually employing whom?"

"Corruption and patronage endanger parliamentary independence. We support a public register on lobbyists."


"Education: A good investment"

"Education is one of the most important German resources and the base of our social fabric. Education is our future. Reduce performance pressure, enhance individualised support."


"Why am I hanging out here? - You won't go voting anyway."

[Middle-aged Europe]

The only crappy thing about the Green posters is that they're surviving the contact with water for only 12 minutes.

[Franknburger]

Let's continue with the CDU:


"Together successful".

They have a series of thematic posters as well. As a blogger remarks: 100% white ethnic Germans, optimistically looking forward. It is all "Friede, Freude, Eierkuchen" (lit. "peace, joy and pancakes", internet fora offer "sunshine & lollipops" or "everything is hunky-dory" as English-language equivalents):
 
"Each family is different. And of special importance to us" (CDU - together successful).


"Good work and new ideas. This will keep Germany strong."  (CDU - together successful).


"Solid finances are important. Because we are thinking about tomorrow." (CDU - together successful). [Quiz: What might be the CDU's main target group?]


"Growth needs farsightedness. And a stable Euro" (CDU - together successful).

They obviously had the photo and the slogan still lying around somewhere. Never mind the two don't fit together....

[Diouf]

I'm sorry if this has already been posted, but I quite like this one.



Am I really in now?

Someone for whom the internet is still Neuland in 2013 should not decide the future for Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

One day I wish to see Tron Legacy as narrated by Angela Merkel :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFXYuw96d0c

[Franknburger]

On with the SPD: Here you get two campaigns at the price of one, and none of the two includes Per Steinbrück! Their slogan is also a  bit particular: "Das WIR entscheidet! - "The 'we'/'us' decides" 'We'/'us' as in "There is more than the candidate that matters". At least they are realistic...

So, here comes the first attempt - let's go negative!

"Best government since (German) unitiy...?" "Vote for change now"


"Privacy - unknown terrain for Merkel?" "Vote  down black-yellow"

They have positive messages as well (and real people on the photos, not models as has the CDU):

"WE for more places in pre-school day-care"


"WE for payable rent"


"WE for legal minimum wages"


"WE for old age free of poverty"  (SPD: The WE decides.)

And, of course, it didn't take long for the first parodies to appear:

"Our candidate does not look any better" - "You want alternatives? Forget it" (SPD: The CONFUSED decides.)


"WE for Hartz IV and unpaid labour"  (SPD: The CONFUSED decides.)

[You kip if you want to...]

Them SPD posters are a lot like the Tory "I've never voted Tory before, but..." posters from here in 2010. Far too easy to parody.

http://mydavidcameron.com/tory

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

"Each family is different. And of special importance to us" (CDU - together successful).

Doesn't look like a very 'different' family to me.

[minionofmidas]

As different as the CDU can stomach.

[minionofmidas]

'nyways, the best posters of this campaign are the Greens' smaller, Black-and-White series.

[Franknburger]

"Each family is different. And of special importance to us" (CDU - together successful).

Doesn't look like a very 'different' family to me.

Yep. This German blog has been contrasting the "Friede, Freude, Eierkuchen" CDU poster with the following screenshot from a major German online retailer's kitchen furniture catalogue:
.

Compared to how the Pirates, Greens and SPD understand " family", the CDU is rather, eh, conservative...

[Tender Branson]

A few AfD (Alternative for Germany) posters:



"The German Spring will begin this Fall."

"Debt does not erase debt."

"The old parties are annihilating our money. Sometimes conservative, sometimes social, sometimes liberal. But always steadily."

"The Greeks suffer, the Germans pay and the banks are cashing in."

"Those who save the banks today, will rob your piggybank tomorrow."

[Franknburger]

AfD has been quite busy in plastering the Hamburg periphery with their posters.

A few more:

"Immigration needs strict rules" (AfD spokeswoman Dr. Frauke Petry)


"The Euro ruins Europe. Including us". (AfD chairman Prof. Dr. Bernd Lucke)

The demographics they are targeting are typically not too fond of Prof. Dr.s,. One of the reasons they are not really gaining traction.

And the parodies are, of course, already out as well:

"We know the alternative to the Euro! Other junk-bonds!"

[jaichind]

Tender, please! Either publish all incoming polls, or put individual polls into context. Infratest dimap has continuously been showing 2-3% more for the CDU than all other pollsters. And their latest results are exactly the same as last week, with the exception of -1% SPD and +1% Pirates.

Here is the latest-"poll of polls", covering 3 more new entries in addition to infratest dimap: Emnid (3.8.), TNS (5.8.), FORSA (7.8.) (Previous "poll of polls" in brackets):

CDU:        40.3 (40.4)
SPD:        24.8 (25.2)
Grüne:     13.5 (13.6)
Linke:        7.5  (7.4)
FDP:          5.0  (4.8 )
Pirates       2.8 (2.4)
AfD            2.3 (2.4)

It is called "Sommerloch"! Holiday season, nothing happening. Things will only start to get moving in 2-3 weeks from now - if at all. Otherwise, we will all be in for a long election night ...

It seems that CDU/CSU/FDP has a reasonable shot capturing a majority by FDP being over 5% and CDU/CSU+FDP > SDP + Greens + Left with a combined vote share as low as 45.5-46.  If so then I believe it would be the the smallest vote share the resulted in a governing majority in the history of the Federal Republic.  I still feel the chances of this is less than 50% but it has a reasonable chance of taking place.