Suburban vote in 2020

[MT Treasurer]

Even if the Senate is 52R-48D after 2018, all the Democrats need to win in 2020 is two of GA, ME, AK, CO, MT and NC, and those states should be very winnable for them, especially if they win the presidency.

Who knows how 2022 will turn out. I think GA, NC and AZ would be the only truly vulnerable Republican Senate seats under a Democratic president, but unfortunately there isn't even one good pick-up opportunity in a Democratic-held state for them. The House could flip back to the Rs in 2022, but many of those suburban seats are trending D in the long term anyway so it wouldn't be a slam dunk by any means, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

Bullock nearly lost re-election even though he was an insanely popular incumbent. I can't see him winning anything else, unless he runs for president.

He won by 4 percentage points, that's not what I would call “nearly losing reelection”. But yeah, it was a much closer race than most pundits and experts expected, and IIRC I was ridiculed for my Bullock +3 prediction (I predicted 49% Bullock, 46% Gianforte, 5% Dunlap) because everyone thought he would win by more than that. Bullock was never really going to win by double digits or something like that, and I never understood why some people predicted that (and why they predict a similar landslide result for Tester). Not every Montana Republican is a Todd Akin-tier candidate and Republicans actually have a relatively high floor in the state, lol.