Swing States in the 2030s and 40s

[Dac10]

This is my map. I’m essentially just pretty reserves in how many of these trends will actually pan out into real EC results in that timeframe. While they’ll definitely be closer, I‘m sort of doubtful states like Texas, Georgia, or North Carolina will ever have an actual shot at going D. The only changes I feel sure about are the ones that are clearer.

So for Ds, VA, NV and CO become solid D. Arizona becoming tilt D and Montana tilt R are the only places where the demographic shift shows up as electoral results on the actual map. Meanwhile NH, Maine, and Minnesota become more favourable to Rs for the same reason, but still Tilt D overall. The Rs gain in Ohio becoming a solid R, Florida and Michigan become strong tilt, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania becoming Tossup (Wisconsin has a lean R, and Pennsylvania has a Tilt D, by they are the most malleable states).

This is all assuming the parties run the current sort of “establishment” candidates with the type of “establishment” policies they currently have. The map can change hugely depending on if the candidates running change (EX. Rs go back to a pre Trump style candidate, Rs go for extreme right-wing populist (but an actually ideologically committed one, not a Trump lol), Ds run a left wing Sanders-type of candidate, Rs run neocon, Rs run libertarian)

[Dac10]

This is my map. I’m essentially just pretty reserves in how many of these trends will actually pan out into real EC results in that timeframe. While they’ll definitely be closer, I‘m sort of doubtful states like Texas, Georgia, or North Carolina will ever have an actual shot at going D. The only changes I feel sure about are the ones that are clearer.

So for Ds, VA, NV and CO become solid D. Arizona becoming tilt D and Montana tilt R are the only places where the demographic shift shows up as electoral results on the actual map. Meanwhile NH, Maine, and Minnesota become more favourable to Rs for the same reason, but still Tilt D overall. The Rs gain in Ohio becoming a solid R, Florida and Michigan become strong tilt, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania becoming Tossup (Wisconsin has a lean R, and Pennsylvania has a Tilt D, by they are the most malleable states).

No way is Michigan becoming TILT-R first than Wisconsin.

It is if Detroit keeps on losing population (and most important, Ds keep dropping in voter turnout) like it is. And as long as the Rs keep running Trump style candidates, and Ds keep running Democratic Establishment types.

Rust Belt “transition” to service sector continues to happen over a long time, and with no real Federal relief. Which means that it’s economy stays terrible, and the disenchantment with the neoliberal status quo continues. Wisconsin tilts strong R, but gains just barely gains enough population growth of transplant/professional liberals in its cities to keep it viable. Michigan experiences much much less of that. Without it’s cities being an attractive bougie destination for transplants+young educated professionals, it has a less of those liberals coming in. With no real strongholds to hold a torch for the Dem establishment, it becomes Presidentially Rs. And the leftover former D populations are left demoralized by politics, so they just stop turning out. It’s not enough for the Rs to fully takeover the state, like in Ohio. Michigan is fundamentally more divided, and so the R voter pool and base are much smaller. But it’s enough for the Ds to have no real shot at contest which voters see as “important”. *Please Note: I am totally open to the possibility this is wrong and bullsh**t lol. But it’s just where I see current urban trends going.