What if Hillary doesn't get a "Bernie Bounce"? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 18, 2024, 10:46:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  What if Hillary doesn't get a "Bernie Bounce"? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What if Hillary doesn't get a "Bernie Bounce"?  (Read 1751 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: June 01, 2016, 10:36:10 AM »

Most of this handwringing is from people who were silly enough to think she was going to win in a 1964/1984 style landslide. It should've been obvious that was not going to happen. Though I do find it hilarious how quickly people do a 180 from that to "SHE'S DOOMED!"

Chances are Bernie will concede prior to the convention, but it really doesn't matter. Bounces are irrelevant because they usually come back down, thus the term. We'll only get a true picture of the race after both conventions are complete, and no, Hillary is not going to be winning in a 64/84 style landslide, so don't get your hopes up.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2016, 10:53:03 AM »

Most of this handwringing is from people who were silly enough to think she was going to win in a 1964/1984 style landslide. It should've been obvious that was not going to happen. Though I do find it hilarious how quickly people do a 180 from that to "SHE'S DOOMED!"

Chances are Bernie will concede prior to the convention, but it really doesn't matter. Bounces are irrelevant because they usually come back down, thus the term. We'll only get a true picture of the race after both conventions are complete, and no, Hillary is not going to be winning in a 64/84 style landslide, so don't get your hopes up.

The only reason why Hillary has a shot at that kind of landslide is because Trump may make a catastrophic mistake late in the game. Additionally, the fact that he has no analytics and no ground game at this point mean that he's running entirely on free/social media and cultural resentment. That might work in a highly fractured GOP primary, but it's not going to work in the general. If the Dems have a solid ground game (and of course they will), but the GOP candidate decides to pick twitter fights with federal judges instead... I could see Hillary around 400 EVs.

Trump makes a "catastrophic mistake" basically every week. It doesn't matter, it's already baked in. The Republicans have rallied around their guy and will stick with him come hell or high water, and there is no serious third party (lol French), so it is not going to be a massive landslide. Her best case scenario is an Obama 08 like victory.

If you expect her to glide through easily without any bumps in the road to a historic landslide, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment. And this is coming from the guy who has insisted since late 2014 that she was inevitable in the primary, despite the ridiculous amount of Warren/Biden/Sanders hype on this forum and in the media. Which makes it even funnier I constantly find myself in the position of having to argue against people who think she is the second coming of LBJ, lol.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.028 seconds with 8 queries.