🇪🇪 Estonia elections & politics megathread: Presidential (Aug./Sep.) & Local (Oct.) elections

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Estonia's government has toppled over a corruption scandal and it seems possible that Estons will be forced to go to the polls in spring.

In the 2019 general elections, the center-right liberal Reform Party became largest force, ahead of the agrarian Center Party. Biggest winner was the EKRE Party, a far-right nationalist party. Other parties in Parliament are the conservative Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party, while the social liberal E200 party failed the 5 percent threshold narrowly.

Before the election, Center leader and Prime Minister Jüri Ratas excluded any cooperation with EKRE, so Reform leader Kaja Kallas was poised to become the country's first female PM. Ratas effectively broke his promise and formed a coalition with EKRE and Isaama, which he led until today.

The coalition seemed quite unpopular and especially former EKRE leader Martin Helme turned out to be the enfant terrible of the coalition, for instance by insulting Finnish PM Sanna Marin as "salesgirl ". EKRE clashed regularly with President Kersti Kaljulaid, the last time over a proposed referendum that would ban same-sex marriage from the constitution. Kaljulaid wanted to make it binding, meaning that if the government loses the referendum, it would be forced to resign.

Now, the Center Party itself is a suspect in a major corruption investigation, having led to Ratas' resignation. Kaljulaid assigned Kaja Kallas with the formation of new government, but it seems questionable whether she's able to do so. Polling suggests that all three coalition parties have suffered from being part of the relatively unpopular government, and Kallas already hinted that they might protect their majority at all costs. But maybe Center wants to avoid another government with EKRE that would sink the party even further, preferring snap elections or a 'grand coalition'.

So, we'll see how that turns out. I guess at this point it can be said that it's almost inevitable that Kaja Kallas will become PM at some point, the only question is when and with whom as coalition partner.

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https://news.err.ee/1608072376/q-a-estonia-s-government-has-resigned-what-happens-next

This article is worth reading if this topic interests you, it sums up all.

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https://news.err.ee/1608072376/q-a-estonia-s-government-has-resigned-what-happens-next

This article is worth reading if this topic interests you, it sums up all.

Thank you! The writing style of the article is pretty engaging.

My favourite coalition would be Reform-Isamaa-SDE, of course, because EKRE doesn't belong in any sane government and Centre deserves to be booted out, but I realize it would be ideologically awkward. Honestly Estonia should probably just go to new elections.

Yeah, I agree. Honestly, I'd root for a Reform-E200-SDE coalition after the elections, Isamaa was as responsible as Center in letting EKRE into the government (although they're less corrupt).

[Astatine]

Thanks Estrella for the great overview!

For the record: Edgar Savisaar, the country's first PM, was one of the founding members of the Center Party and served as mayor of Tallinn for 11 years in total.

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Revived this thread, since tomorrow presidential elections will take place.

The Estonian Parliament needs to choose the country's new head of state with a 2/3 majority (68/101 members), and the incumbent government (59 seats) of Reform and Center Party has nominated academic Alar Karis for the office. A candidate needs 21 MPs to support their candidacy - Neither incumbent Kersti Kaljulaid nor a proposed EKRE candidate acquired this threshold.

Kaljulaid would've liked to serve for another term, and the Estonians would've probably supported that, but her outspokenness about several issues in this ceremonial office was not well received by Reform nor Center. The Social Democrats would've supported her candidacy, but they don't have enough seats.

It's still not a safe bet that Karis achieves a majority, which could lead to the 2 more voting rounds in Parliament. If those fail, an electoral college with 208 members would have to choose a new head of state - where Kaljulaid, at least in theory, could be nominated again.

[Astatine]

Isamaa leader Helir-Vardor Seemer was hospitalized with Covid-19. Together with Reform MP Siim Kallas, father of PM Kaja Kallas, two out of 101 MPs will not be attending the presidential vote today, making it less likely Alar Karis gets a majority in the first round today.

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After Karis received 62 votes in the first ballot yesterday, he managed to get a 2/3-majority in the second ballot today with u2 votes. That means he will assume his office as President in October, and the government was spared of an embarrassing scenario like in 2016 with multiple voting rounds swapping between Parliament and electoral college.