538.com map

[KeyKeeper]

I will try to update this, this afternoon. I've been very busy.

[KeyKeeper]

09/22/08

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 286
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227
Toss-up: 25


In Sen. McCain's direction

FL: Toss-up McCain to Lean McCain
SD: Likely McCain to Safe McCain

In Sen. Obam's direction

MS: Safe McCain to Likely McCian
OR: Likely Obama to Safe Obama
SC: Safe McCain to Likely McCain
TX: Safe mcCain to Likely McCain
VA: Toss-up Obama to Lean Obama


538 Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227

[KeyKeeper]

09/23/08

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 286
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 200
Toss-up: 52


In Sen. McCain's direction

AZ: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
MS: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain

In Sen. Obam's direction

CO: Lean Obama to Likely Obama
FL: Lean McCain to Toss-up McCain
WA: Likely Obama to Safe Obama


538 Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227

[KeyKeeper]

09/23/08

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 282
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 200
Toss-up: 56


In Sen. McCain's direction

CO: Likely Obama to Lean Obama
MI: Likely Obama to Lean Obama
MT: Lean McCain to Likely McCain
NH: Lean Obama to Toss-up Obama
NV: Toss-up Obama to Toss-up McCain
OH: Toss-up Obama to Toss-up McCain
OR: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
PA: Likely Obama to Lean Obama
SC: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
WA: Safe Obama to Likely Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

None

538 Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 311
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 227




*Note Theit snapshot has NV and OH for Obama*

[JohnCA246]

Thats what my gut says at the moment except for NV, but theres nothing to back it up.  Still have a month to go, and I have feeling ti will look more like 04.

[Хahar 🤔]

Who is this "Sen. Obam"?

[Lief 🗽]

As of today's update, the chance of a McCain win of any sort (21.5%) is less than the chance of an Obama landslide (21.8%).

[KeyKeeper]

I will update this tomorrow, sorry about not doing it in the past few days.

[Angel of Death]

Obama is now more than 4 to 1 on to win.

[Lief 🗽]

Chance of McCain Victory: 19.5%
Chance of Obama Landslide: 25.54%

[Ronnie]

Sigh, things look bleak for poor old McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN!

[Bacon King]

It's not like McCain didn't come back from even further odds behind during the primaries. Back around last November Intrade was giving him what, three percent?

[daboese]

Where is he gone?
Looks like Obama has been gaining too much for him to continue.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Yea it would be nice if it was updated, but people do have a life outside of the forum.

[Ronnie]

If Silver plans to weight the Quinnipiac polls released today high, I've basically lost my trust in him.

[Josh/Devilman88]

If Silver plans to weight the Quinnipiac polls released today high, I've basically lost my trust in him.

The weight goes by past history, if Quinnipiac polls are very good in the past that is how he put them in the database.

[Ronnie]

If Silver plans to weight the Quinnipiac polls released today high, I've basically lost my trust in him.

The weight goes by past history, if Quinnipiac polls are very good in the past that is how he put them in the database.

I get it, but it will probably put OH and FL at more Dem than the national average, which is simply not true.

[kevinatcausa]

Well, they're up. 

The current projected national margin is Obama +4.4, but both Ohio and Florida are only projected as Obama +2.4.

[Ronnie]

This is terrible.  85% chance?

[Jacobtm]

This is terrible.  85% chance?

I agree that this seems to be too high, but really think about it. For McCain, the best you could say about Kerry states is that NH is only going to be about the national average. IA seems to be locked up for Obama, NM seems to be nearly locked up, and CO favors Obama.

Kerry states plus IA, NM and CO = Obama wins.

Even if you then say that OH, VA, NV and FL are all going to be 1-4 points behind Obama's national average, McCain's chances still look pretty slim.

[Lief 🗽]

Once you start leading by 3-4 points, the chance that you lose the EC becomes close to 0. If anything, 15% is a bit high, I would think. McCain would basically need to win FL, OH, NC, VA, MO, IN, NV and CO/NH+ME2, all of which are currently 50/50 or tilted Obama.

[Jacobtm]

Once you start leading by 3-4 points, the chance that you lose the EC becomes close to 0. If anything, 15% is a bit high, I would think. McCain would basically need to win FL, OH, NC, VA, MO, IN, NV and CO/NH+ME2, all of which are currently 50/50 or tilted Obama.

The problem isn't with the current situation. If polls are to be believed, and Obama has a 3-6 point lead, then he's got the election locked up.

The problem is that this is a prediction of what will happen in November. Look at how fast the race went from McCain +2 to Obama +8. Something could easily happen to throw the race back into McCain's favor. The 15% chance doesn't really seem to be accounting for the fact that the race can change very quickly, and it doesn't take more than a few points change to put it back into a very even race.

[Mr. Morden]

The problem is that this is a prediction of what will happen in November. Look at how fast the race went from McCain +2 to Obama +8. Something could easily happen to throw the race back into McCain's favor. The 15% chance doesn't really seem to be accounting for the fact that the race can change very quickly, and it doesn't take more than a few points change to put it back into a very even race.

538 doesn't care about the "fundamentals" of the race.  It's just designed to reflect whatever the current polling says.  The polling has shifted noticeably in McCain's Obama's direction, so 538 is going to reflect that.  The "percentage chance of winning" isn't really a forward projection of what's going to happen (in the same sense as, say, Intrade).  It's just a computation of the probability of each candidate winning if the voting were to line up with the current poll results, and their respective uncertainties.

[NOVA Green]

Once you start leading by 3-4 points, the chance that you lose the EC becomes close to 0. If anything, 15% is a bit high, I would think. McCain would basically need to win FL, OH, NC, VA, MO, IN, NV and CO/NH+ME2, all of which are currently 50/50 or tilted Obama.

The problem isn't with the current situation. If polls are to be believed, and Obama has a 3-6 point lead, then he's got the election locked up.

The problem is that this is a prediction of what will happen in November. Look at how fast the race went from McCain +2 to Obama +8. Something could easily happen to throw the race back into McCain's favor. The 15% chance doesn't really seem to be accounting for the fact that the race can change very quickly, and it doesn't take more than a few points change to put it back into a very even race.

Part of the problem for McCain however, is that generally in October there is very little shift amongst voters that have made up their minds, even "leaners".

Also, there simply isn't a large enough group of true undecideds, even if McCain were to win the lions share of those voters.

I agree that at this point it will most likely take a big event to shift the dynamics of this race and give McCain a shot at an EV win.