National Tracking Poll Thread

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Paul 43% Obama 41%

Those 43% who said Paul clearly don't count becuase Paul cannot win. Just ignore them.  Nothing to see here.

Basing your electability arguments off of a Rasmussen poll is pretty pathetic.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

How did Mitt Romney's favorable numbers leap above Obama's in such a big way? Historians will be left scratching their heads about that for decades. Gully/Al are probably right: this smacks of Cleggmania. Nothing Romney did outside of the media's change in narrative/hype can explain this and I doubt that voters are that fickle, especially when it comes to a caricicture like Mittens.

Obama's decline in approval ratings makes sense: that bump in September seemed artificial and driven by the DNC.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

He's not being crushed at the levels necessary to explain the state of national polling. Even with the large swings against him in the traditionally anti-incumbent plains, the combination of demographic shifts/the last white Democrats ditching the party in the South and the sizeable swings in the Northeast, Obama is around 1-2 points ahead.

Color me skeptical.