PA-PPP: Gov. Tom Corbett (R) stuck in the low 40s against possible challengers
Keystone Phil:
Casey isn't going to do it in 2014.
Snowstalker Mk. II:
Is Rendell even able to run again?
Keystone Phil:
Quote from: Snowstalker on January 07, 2013, 06:03:28 PM
Is Rendell even able to run again?
Yes
HappyWarrior:
One of the big things to look at in this is how little people know most of those Democrats and the ones they do know should have higher numbers because most of the undecideds are in Democratic leaning demographic groups.
pbrower2a:
Quote from: Tayya on January 07, 2013, 03:50:22 PM
We knew Corbett was vulnerable, but he's not the ripe fruit some Democrats want him to be.
His approvals will need to approach 50% for him to have a chance at re-election. Such is possible but highly unlikely. According to Nate Silver an incumbent Governor or Senator needs an approval rating of 44% early in the year of the re-election bid to have a 50% chance of being re-elected, and 6% away the chance of being re-elected goes rapidly to near 0% if the incumbent is behind or to near 100% if the candidate is above. Add 6% to the approval rating for an incumbent and you get a good estimate of the voting share in a binary election. Incumbents rarely make big decisions that split the public far from 50%.
Below 38% approval incumbents even running for re-election are rare. Many see the futility of running for re-election and fail to run and some lose to challenges in primary elections. We are still a year away from the conditions for Silver's analysis to kick in for Corbett in Pennsylvania, but he is going to need miracles in a State that is more D than R in Presidential elections and in which the Tea Party election gets increasingly irrelevant to the one at hand.
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