Mayor Pete

[KaiserDave]

Oooooo
This DNC might sway me
Still Phil, for now

[America Needs R'hllor]

Pete

It was time.

Indiana Governor Pete Buttigieg was just introduced to the Democratic National Convention in Houston by his partner, Chasten Glezman. Now he was walking towards the podium, grinning and waving to the huge, cheering crowd. It was almost blinding- he could barely see the thousands of faces looking at him, but he could feel their eyes, fixated on him, expecting a speech for the centuries. He hoped to deliver.

"Democrats!" He started, with the cheering intensifying for a few seconds. "Independents! Republicans... Americans! I'm here to recruit you!"

Harvey Milk's famous call to action, borrowed by the Buttigieg campaign, caused a new wave of cheering. The Governor continued. "This coming election will be, I believe, one of the most important in the past decades. For the past eight years, America was governed by an administration not worthy of us- it wasn't just incompetent and inefficient, but it also targeted Americans, true Americans, with policies that hurt them and discriminated against them. This administration tried to take away the protections of LGBTQ Americans and prevent trans people from serving their nation in the military; it supported efforts to disenfrenchaise minorities with targeted legal attacks on them; it incited and disparage good, law-abiding Hispanic Americans and immigrants who are just looking for a better life; and it tried to strip so many working Americans of their crucial health insurance. President Trump- you're not worthy of us! We won't stand for all that!" The cheering and booing filled the hall.

"But no, no, we're not here to talk about President Trump. He doesn't deserve all the attention." Pete spoke loudly. "In this election, America is standing before a crossroads! Do we want to continue the policies of this administration? Do we want to give even more influence and power to religious fundamentalist elements that look at LGBTQ Americans and women with dismay? Because this is what will we get with Vice President Mike Pence!"

Ignoring all the booing that came from the crowd, he continued. "But we can also take the other direction. A direction of hope, a direction of progress, a direction of real change millions of Americans will feel! The opportunity that's standing before our country is priceless- we can actually work for our people, enact reforms that change their lives for the better. We can pass universal healthcare to finally make sure every American can go to the doctor and get treatment! We can reform our criminal justice system to stop ruining the lives of poor Americans who are disproportionally minority! We can reform our immigration system too, and make sure our hardworking immigrants can become citizens like all of us, and stress out that no human being is illegal! We can finally defeat special pharma interests and benefit both our country and many of our people by legalizing marijuanna! We can protect LGBTQ Americans from discrimination! We can reform our tax system, and ensure that wealthy Americans and big corporations pay a fairer share while middle class families get some real relief! We can make America a shining city on the hill again, not a country derided by the rest of the world! We can combat global warming in this crucial juncture and tell the world that they have a partner again! And yes, we can make America great for everyone, actually great! We don't need nationalism or racism or hate to be great again- no, President Trump missed the point. We need to work for our people, not for special interests, and enact policies that help everyone- that's how we make this country great for all of its people, male and female, straight and LGBTQ, black and white and Hispanic, Jewish and Muslim and Christian and everyone else."

"More than a decade ago," Pete continued, "I was elected Mayor of a small city, dubbed one of America's dying cities. Well, we came into the Mayor's office ready to work for the people of the city, to make life better for everyone. And we did. We worked hard, we enacted reforms and fresh ideas that were outside of the box, not stale and old talking points. And years later, South Bend, Indiana, became one of the only growing rust-belt cities and a true place of attraction. In 2020, the people of Indiana elected me their Governor. I promised them that I'd come into the Governor's Mansion to work and make life better for them, just like in South Bend, with compassion and hard work. And we did it too, making sure almost no-one in Indiana is uninsured and repairing much of our state's infaustracture. Now, I'm ready to do it in America! I'm ready to work hard, just like I did for South Bend and for Indiana, for all people of our wonderful, diverse nation!"

The Governor grinned, preparing for the final lines everyone was expected. "This is why I'm here today, speaking to all of you wonderful activists! This is why, I accept the Democratic nomination for President of the United States!" The crowd went wild, chanting their usual lines of "Mayor Pete! Mayor Pete! Mayor Pete!"

Pete Buttigieg was finally ready for the general election, ready to face his fellow hoosier.

General Election Polling- National
Governor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)\Senator Anthony Foxx (D-NC)- 48%%
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)\??- 32%
Governor Phil Scott (R\I-VT)\U.S. Rep. Spencer J. Cox (R\I-UT)- 12%
Businessman Don Blankenship (C-WV)\Fmr. U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman (C-TX)- 2%
City Councillor Nicholas Sarwark (L-AZ)\Activist Zoltan Istvan (L-CA)- 1%
Activist Howie Hawkins (G-NY)\Activist Gary Swing (G-AZ)- 0%
Other\Undecided- 5%
BUTTIGIEG +16

[libertpaulian]

If he wins, I want him to get 50%+.  Even if he wins in a landslide or comfortably, getting a plurality wouldn't look like he has a mandate.

[Cold War Liberal]

"I'm here to recruit you!"

Harvey Milk's famous call to action, borrowed by the Buttigieg campaign, caused a new wave of cheering.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

I adore Harvey Milk so obviously I loved this part so much, great lil detail thrown in there.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Mike

Vice President Pence looked at the two names on the two sides of the sheet of paper before him, made for him by campaign manager Nick Ayres. On the right hand were listed the pros and cons of South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem as his potential running mate, while on the left hand were the pros and cons of Missouri Senator Josh Hawley for the same job. Mike was close to making a decision.

Unlike his boss sometimes was, the Vice President wasn't stupid or delusional. He knew that after eight years of Trump, the Democrats were starting as favourites. He knew that a Republican Party struggling to unite against a united Democratic Party with a strong candidates would be even more of an underdog. And he knew that the polls were showing a very bleak image for him. But Mike Pence knew that there was always a chance, and no one could be written off. Just like Trump in 2016. He also believed in God, and knew that if him being President was His plan, he will win the election. So it wouldn't hurt if he did all he could to win that election, since God only helps those who help themselves. Choosing a running mate was crucial to that.

Most of his advisors were telling him to choose Governor Noem- the Democratic ticket was all-male, and Republicans desperately needed to make up the growing gender gap to prevent a collapse, so appealing to the suburban female voters who recently turned to Democrats could be a good idea. She was also very popular with the pro-Israeli loby, ensuring more funds. But... he wasn't convinced.

2008 felt like a dark cloud over his VP vetting process- sure, Mike was much more conservative than McCain but it looked too similar. A natural successor to a two-term unpopular Republican President who struggled to win the primary against challengers who attacked him both from the right (Paul and Kelly) and from the left (Hogan and also Paul) but emerged victor; a charismatic, "historical" Democratic ticket with congressional majorities awaiting. Just that this time, these majorities would be very liberal, making a Democratic victory even more dangerous. Why would Pence, in these circumstances, choose a controversial, Republican female Governor of a small rural state as running mate? It just felt like God was signaling him, with this similarity, not to choose her. In the back of his mind was another matter, too- he'd have to sit to dinner alone with Noem if she was his Vice President, and the very thought repulsed him. But he tried to ignore that and focus on practical reasons.

There were other factors, too- there wasn't any proof that a female running mate would help with women, and Noem just seemed less charismatic than Hawley or, for that matter, Palin, and charisma was something he needed. She would also not help in any swing state, while Hawley would pretty much secure Missouri, which in a landslide could become worrying. Lastly, Pence was a former Congressman and Governor like Noem, while Halwey was a Senator, so choosing him would mean more diversity in experience.

Yes, Mike decided, that was the best choice to make. God willing, it was the right one. He called his secretary. "Get me Josh Hawley," the Vice President said confidently.

THE REPUBLICAN TICKET FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, 2024
Vice President Michael Richard Pence (R-IN)\Senator Joshua David Hawley (R-MO)

[KaiserDave]

Bad choice

[Cold War Liberal]

Awful pick on Pence's behalf and I love it

Hawley's seat is up in '24. Can/will he run for both offices at the same time?

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Republican National Convention- Special Summary

Following a wildly successful Democratic Convention that gave the Buttigieg\Foxx ticket a double-digits polling lead, Republicand hoped that their own convention could make the race competitive again. They gathered in the Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where they attempted to show the country an image of a united, strong party. However, the absence of many important Republican figures struck many as a sign of discord, with some of the figures who were noteably absent including former President George W. Bush and Utah Senator Mitt Romney, as well as members of the moderate wing of the party including runner-up Larry Hogan who's rumoured to be considering an endorsement of Governor Phil Scott's independent bid.

Still, it was an energetic convention where the Republican establishment seemed to celebrate a retaking of the party from Trump populism, and many of the speeches given drew wild applause. Attacks against the Democrats and liberals were especially prominent and, some would say, incendiary, and the convention definitely energized the conservative base and lead to a significant polling bump for the Pence\Hawley ticket- though it's not clear if it would be enough.

Day 1- Strength


The first day of the convention was dedicated to an attribute that the Republican ticket hoped to leverage against the Democrats- strength. One aspect it emphasized American strength in foreign policy, including speeches by hawkish figures like former National Security Advisor John Bolton, former primary rival and Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton and former U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw. Others were strength against crime and strength against immigration, including a headline speech by former primary rival and Secretary of Defence John Kelly, controversial anti-immigration former Sheriff David Clarke, UN Ambassador Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. While effective in rallying the base, the first day was criticized for incendiary speeches and controversial figures, with Senator Graham later saying he was "kinda regretting" participating in that day.

Day 2- Liberty


In the second day, Republicans put emphasis on another important slogan in their platform- the idea of liberty. There, they brought out many conservative-libertarians and spoke, especially, about economic and religious liberty and gun rights, and warned about the danger of Democrats infringing on "basic freedoms". It was a sign of the renewed strength of the Paul wing of the party after a strong performance by Rand Paul in the primary. Indeed, the headline speech was given by Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, with other speakers including Texas Senator Ted Cruz, running in a tough race for reelection, U.S. Representatives Justin Amash and Thomas Massie who are aligned with the liberty wing, Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, Utah Senator Mike Lee and Kentucky Senator Matt Bevin, who spoke especially about religious liberty and was criticized for a homophobic attack against Democratic nominee Pete Buttigieg.

Day 3- Trump's Party


The third day was, according to rumours, demanded by the White House and showed the control that Trumpism still had over the party. The headline speech was given by President Donald Trump, with other speeches including Special Advisor Ivanka Trump, businessman Donald Trump Jr., U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows, Tennessee Governor Diane Black, Mississippi Senator Phil Bryant and HUD Secretary Rudy Giuliani. It was the most heavily criticized day of the convention, appealig soley to Trump supporters with the President giving his signaure, rambling speech and attacking Democratic nominee "Meek Pete" or "Part-time Peter".

Day 4- Leadership


In the fourth day, Republicans officially nominated Vice President Mike Pence for President, after delegates formerly pledged to Rand Paul and John Kelly brought him over the line, and Josh Hawley for Vice President by a rollcall. The same day, the party brought out congressional leadership to shore up establishment supporters, and tried to appeal to more moderate and independent Americans by bringing figures considered more moderate and  who were willing to speak. The headline speech was by Senate Minority Leader John Thune, and other speakers included House Minority Leader Steve Scalise, former Speaker Paul Ryan, former Florida Senator Marco Rubio, West Virginia Governor Evan Jenkins, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and Oklahoma Governor Mick Cornett. Two other important speeches were given- the convention's keynote speech by Oklahoma Senator J.C. Watts, as well as the Vice Presidential nomination acceptance speech by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley. Hawley speech was dubbed "the best in the entire convention", as it was full of energy and enthusiastic, increasing speculation of a future Presidential bid by Hawley even if the ticket loses. This was considered a very successful night, with some charismatic and popular speeches that gave the image of Republican unity.

Day 5- The Nominee


The final day of the convention was, as per tradition, the one in which the Presidential nominee gave his acceptance speech. And indeed, the day was entirely dedicated to Vice Presidential Pence, with speeches that stress out his record and from political allies throughout his career. For example, speeches were given by former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Wisconsin Senate nominee and former Governor Scott Walker, Second Lady Karen Pence, Indiana Senate nominee and former Governor Eric Holcomb, campaign manager Nick Ayres and Indiana gubernatorial nominee, the Vice President's brother and U.S. Rep. Greg Pence who introduced the nominee himself. Of course, the main event was the acceptance speech of Vice President Mike Pence, which was considered solid and unifying if not particularly inspiring. Pence rode out of the convention with new momentum.

General Election Polling- National
Governor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)\Senator Anthony Foxx (D-NC)- 45%%
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)\Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO)- 39%
Governor Phil Scott (R\I-VT)\U.S. Rep. Spencer J. Cox (R\I-UT)- 8%
City Councillor Nicholas Sarwark (L-AZ)\Activist Zoltan Istvan (L-CA)- 2%
Businessman Don Blankenship (C-WV)\Fmr. U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman (C-TX)- 1%
Activist Howie Hawkins (G-NY)\Activist Gary Swing (G-AZ)- 0%
Other\Undecided- 5%
BUTTIGIEG +6

[KaiserDave]

Can there by a Scott convention?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Can there by a Scott convention?

Unfortunately independent candidates don't really do that. He's focusing on ads and campaign events to try and get his numbers above the debate threshold.
In other news, stay tuned for the first debate soon!

[Joe Biden 2024]

Are you going to end the timeline with the 2024 election or will it keep going afterwards?

[KaiserDave]

Can there by a Scott convention?

Unfortunately independent candidates don't really do that. He's focusing on ads and campaign events to try and get his numbers above the debate threshold.
In other news, stay tuned for the first debate soon!

He better be there

[America Needs R'hllor]

Are you going to end the timeline with the 2024 election or will it keep going afterwards?

Writing a full administration TL in 2025 would be too hard since we don't really know the problems and headlines of that time. However, I will do a few epilogue posts about the next administration, the 2026, 2028, 2030 and 2032 elections and a general future of American politics ITTL epilogue.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Jennifer

"Governor Buttigieg, during your tenure as Mayor, political opponents dubbed you as 'Part-Time Peter', a nickname taken up by President Trump. They criticized your for the long time you spent away from the city of South Bend, both during your tour to Afghanistan and campaigning for Democratic candidates and issues out-of-state. Why should Americans trust you to be their full-time President?" Jason Kander, acting as the debate's moderator, asked.

Mayor Pete begun his answer confidently. "Look, when I campaigned for President Obama in Iowa, back in 2008, I saw all these American youths in both rural and urban areas who were getting ready to deploy abroad and serve their country. I admired the hell out of them. My grandfather was a pilot in the Navy, I admired the hell out of him. So in 2009, I realized that I needed to do it- I needed to enlist and serve my nation, there was no excuse not to do that. When I was called to service in 2013, it was a hard decision- I was a Mayor by then, with responsibility for my city. But at the same time, I knew that I had a great team in South Bend, and that it's not just me who kept the city going, it was this entire team of wonderful public servants. I also knew that in this modern age, I'd be able to keep tabs on the affairs of the city even when I'm deployed. So once again, there was no excuse- my nation needed me, and I answered 'yes'. My opponents can criticize me as much as they want, I'm not going to apologize for my service. In the end, the result is that my city became one of the only cities in the rust belt to grow after everyone was ready to bury it and sing a lamentation- if you want to criticize my record, I'll proudly defend it. As President, I'll work the same way- I'll serve my nation with all I've got, and I'll make sure I'm surrounded by the best team possible."

"Good, very good." Campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon clasped her hands. "This should go straight into one of your debate answers. Moderator asks something about this dumb nickname, which I'm sure he will, and that's the answer you give."

"Yeah, it's great." Governor Kander looked thoughtful. "This debate could be a bit tought. We need to avoid attacking him too hard and making him look like a victim, he's good at that at least. Pete needs to use his youth and charisma to make him look stale and pale."

"I agree, that's something I couldn't really do." Senator Tim Kaine, who they invited to act as the Vice President in the debate prep because of his experience debating Pence, added. "Try not to get too agressive, even though this guy is, sorry for the wording, an insufferable a**hole. He'll try to tip you off balance with his sanctimonious tone and quiet lying, but you'll need to keep calm and use your advantages wisely."

"The first debate isn't the most important," Dillon said, "so don't feel too pressured. Hillary won it decisively in 2016 and it didn't do much for her, so just stay above the water and deal a knock out only if you see the opening. The townhall debate will be great for you, and then we'll have the third debate to truly make some damage. And hopefully, the VP debate goes well too. Anthony already started prepping to face Hawley with former Senator McCaskill."

"Thanks, I appreciate that." Buttigieg smiled at the group around him. "It's going to be great. I know Pence is bad, but we're both Hoosiers. I think I can handle it."

"You're doing great, Pete, I'm happy to see that." DNC Chairwoman Jennifer Granholm emerged from the sideways and approached them. "I've been watching the prep. You'll win this debate, I know it." She looked at the others. "And you all are doing really well too. Keep it going!"

"Thanks, Jennifer." Pete approached her. "How are the numbers looking for our congressional and gubernatorial races?"

The former Michigan Governor laid out a bunch of papers on a close table. She was working hard for the past months to make sure they finally got a Democrat with strong congressional majorities into the White House, and it wasn't easy- especially with so many vulnerable seats in the 2024 congressional map- but she was optimistic. "Well, it looks very likely that we'll lose at least a few seats in the Senate with this map. Heidi Heitkamp is extremely vulnerable in North Dakota, as is Joe Donnelly in your state; Manchin's and Bredesen's retirements make keeping West Virginia and Tennessee a tall order; and Bill Nelson's retirement, as well as Sherrod Brown's declining poll numbers, make Florida and Ohio battlegrounds. We're a bit worried about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada too, but we think it won't be that much of a problem."

"Looks like we're sure to lose at least a few seats." Pete scratched his chin. "Hope we can somehow keep our seat count above 60, 2022 made me hopeful we could."

"Well, it's possible," Jennifer said. "We're making a strong play for Texas, Cruz could definitely fall. And we're also playing in Missouri, where Hawley's choice as running mate upended the race. Clint Zweifel is a strong candidate for us."

"Imagine if we win this," Kaine laughed. "Missouri, of all states, electing both Nicole Galloway and Clint Zweifel in the 2020s, one election cycle after another."

"Yeah." The DNC Chairwoman smiled at the juvenile Senator, who decided not to run for reelection. "Anyway, if we gain at least Texas, we can lose North Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee and even one of the others and still keep an above-60 majority. And in the House, many of our seats are in suburban districts trending towards us and we can still win some in states like Texas and Georgia, so while losing seats after some overextension into Republican territory is likely, we hope to keep it to a minimum. It's going to be fine, hopefully."

Mayor Pete nodded. "I hope so too. If I'm elected President, I want to be able to truly, really make a difference."

General Election Polling- National
Governor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)\Senator Anthony Foxx (D-NC)- 46%%
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)\Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO)- 38%
Governor Phil Scott (R\I-VT)\U.S. Rep. Spencer J. Cox (R\I-UT)- 7%
City Councillor Nicholas Sarwark (L-AZ)\Activist Zoltan Istvan (L-CA)- 2%
Activist Howie Hawkins (G-NY)\Activist Gary Swing (G-AZ)- 1%
Businessman Don Blankenship (C-WV)\Fmr. U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman (C-TX)- 1%
Other\Undecided- 5%
BUTTIGIEG +8

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Battle for Senate- Summary (Part 1)

Six years after the dramatic 2018 midterm elections that brought Democrats into a Senate majority that, so far, lasted, the same Senate seats are up for the voters' deliberation. In an election year with high turnout and a different environment, Democrats are expecting a tough battle in some of the red-state seats they managed to hold in the anti-Trump environment of the 2018 midterms. Unlike 2022, when Democrats managed to ride an overwhelming wave to win seats in the deeply conservative states like Louisiana, Kentucky and Missouri, as well as Republican-trending states like Ohio and Iowa, Democrats anticipate a hard time in such states this year. Let's look at the Senate races up this year, alongside the dramatic Presidential election between Governor Pete Buttigieg and Vice President Mike Pence.

Arizona
Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D) vs former Governor Doug Ducey (R)

After easily defeating controversial Sheriff Joe Arpaio in the 2018 Senate race, Senator and former Presidential contender Kyrsten Sinema is running for another term, and this time she's facing a more credible Republican opponent- U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko, who won a contentious primary against U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko, a conservative firebrand, former U.S. Rep. and 2016 contender Martha McSally, former GOP state chairman and 2018 independent Senate candidate Robert Graham, and former Governor Fife Symington. Republicans believe Sinema is vulnerable, especially to a real candidate and a popular former Governor, and that her Preisdential bid damaged her. But Ducey didn't hold office for two years now, Sinema's approval ratings are high, and the former Governor had to go through a bruising primary that moved him right, some wonder if too far to the right in a leftward-trending state.
RATING: Tossup

Arizona Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. Governor Doug Ducey- 37.6% ✓
U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko- 33.0%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Martha McSally- 16.7%
Fmr. Governor Fife Symington- 7.8%
Fmr. Chairman Robert Graham- 4.9%

Arizona Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Kyrsten Sinema*- 48%
Fmr. Governor Doug Ducey- 45%
Undecided\Others- 7%

California
Fmr. Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) vs Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D)

After an all-out crowded primary between prominent California Democrats and Republicans, two major politicians emerged for the seat of retiring Senator Dianne Feinstein- Attorney General Xavier Becerra, an old-guard politician in the state who served in congress for decades before his appointment to the current position by Governor Jerry Brown, and former Los Angeles Mayor and 2020 Presidential contender Eric Garcetti. The race is considered a pure tossup, as both are strong contenders. While both are hispanic, Becerra is considered stronger with this population, but Garcetti has a strong base in LA. Both are fairly establishment figures, but Becerra is considered the progressive favourite due to his membership in the Congressional Progressive Caucus. On the issue of endorsements, Garcetti was endorsed by fellow Mayor London Breed, former Senate candidate who didn't get to the top-two, and Governor Gavin Newsom, while Becerra is supported by Senator Kamala Harris and U.S. Reps. Eric Swalwell and Ami Bera, former State Senator Kevin de León, and former State Treasurer John Chiang, former Senate candidates.
RATING: Safe D

California Senate Election (Jungle Primary)- Results
Fmr. Mayor Eric Garcetti- 17.4% ✓
Attorney General Xavier Becerra- 16.6% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Ashley Swearengin- 16.1%
Mayor London Breed- 14.9%
Venture Capitalist Peter Thiel- 9.5%
U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell- 5.0%
U.S. Rep. Ami Bera- 4.3%
Businessman John Cox- 4.1%
TYT Host Cenk Uygur- 3.0%
Fmr. Treasurer John Chiang- 2.8%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Doug Ose- 2.3%
Fmr. State Sen. Kevin de León- 1.7%
Transhumanist Zoltan Istvan- 1.0%
Activist Michael Savage- 0.6%
Others- 0.7%

California Senate Election- Polling
Fmr. Mayor Eric Garcetti (D)- 42%
Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D)- 40%
Undecided- 18%

Florida
Lieutenant Governor Chris King (D) vs U.S. Rep. Brian Mast (R)

The seat vacated by retiring 82 year old Senator Bill Nelson is considered one of the most competitive this year, perhaps the single most competitive, as Florida continues to be an ever-tight state. Lieutenant Governor Chris King, who was elected and reelected as Governor Gwen Graham's running mate in 2018 and 2022, emerged a narrow victor from a competitive Democratic primary against former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy and former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, and is considered a strong, young competitor whose business background could help in a state like Florida. However, anti-Jewish comments from his college time and business controversies could hurt him. Against King stands Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Mast, another young contender who is considered fairly unextreme for Florida Republican standards and emerged with a plurality out of a crowded field, his competitors including fellow U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, former Agriculture Commissioner and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Adam Putnam, former Lieutenant Governor Carlos López-Cantera, State Senator Anitere Flores and former U.S. Rep. Allen West. While Mast is a strong candidate, a bitter primary against more conservative opponents could hurt him. Overall, this is expected to be a very closely-contested battle, and could go either way.
RATING: Tossup

Florida Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
Lt. Gov. Chris King- 41.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Andrew Gillum- 38.7%
Fmr. Mayor Rick Kriseman- 10.4%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy- 9.7%

Florida Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Brian Mast- 34.9% ✓
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz- 27.1%
Fmr. Commis. Adam Putnam- 13.7%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Allen West- 11.8%
State Sen. Anitere Flores- 7.1%
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Carlos López-Cantera - 5.5%

Florida Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Lt. Gov. Chris King- 46%
U.S. Rep. Brian Mast- 44%
Undecided\Others- 10%

Indiana
Senator Joe Donnelly (D) vs Former Governor Eric Holcomb (R)

After urging from Democratic nominee Pete Buttigieg, Senator Joe Donnelly, who only barely survived a challenge from former U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita in 2018, decided to run for a third term in the Senate. But this time, he faces a tougher challenger in former Governor Eric Holcomb, narrowly ousted by the Democratic nominee himself in 2020. Holcomb, who beat the controversial Attorney General Curtis Hill in the primary, is still popular in Indiana, and the Presidential turnout could spell trouble for Donnelly. He's considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senators as of now, but how Indiana goes in a Presidential race between two Hoosiers could change the dynamics of the race.
RATING: Lean R

Indiana Senate Election (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. Governor Eric Holcomb- 36.3% ✓
Attorney General Curtis Hill- 33.9%
Businessman Mike Braun- 29.8%

Indiana Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Fmr. Governor Eric Holcomb- 46%
Senator Joe Donnelly*- 43%
Undecided\Others- 11%

Maine
U.S. Rep. Jared Golden (D) vs Former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R)

80 years old and in poor health, Independent Senator Angus King has decided to retire from the Senate after two terms. The golden age of Maine independents seemed to fade as the battle to replace him quickly became a horse race between the major parties- Democrats nominated three-term U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, who barely survived in 2020 and later won handily in the 2022 Democratic wave, but is sitting on a district rapidly trending Republican. He defeated 2018 nominee Zak Ringlestein, former State Rep. Hannah Pingree and former National Security Advisor and UN Ambassador Susan Rice in the primary. Meanwhile, in a fascinating turn of events, Republicans nominated former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who was ousted by Golden in 2018 and ran a very conservative campaign, defeating former State House Minority Leader Ken Fredette, State Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Michael Thibodeau, businessman Shawn Moody and former State Treasurer Terry Hayes in the Republican primary. Golden is considered a stronger candidate, and defeated Poliquin in the district less favourable to Democrats in the past, so he's considered the favourite- but the Poliquin campaign claims Maine moved further to the right since then.
RATING: Likely D

Maine Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Jared Golden- 44.1% ✓
Fmr. Ambassador Susan Rice- 31.0%
Fmr. State Rep. Hannah Pingree- 14.6%
Mr. Zak Ringlestein- 10.3%

Maine Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin- 29.7% ✓
State Sen. Michael Thibodeau- 26.5%
State Rep. Ken Fredette- 23.8%
Businessman Shawn Moody- 15.3%
Fmr. State Tres. Terry Hayes- 4.7%

Maine Senate Election, 2024- Polling
U.S. Rep. Jared Golden- 48%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin- 35%
Undecided\Others- 17%

Michigan
U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) vs State Senator Ruth Johnson (R)

Yet another Democratic retirement this year is that of 74 years-old Senator Debbie Stabenow, who served in the Senate since 2000. In a state trending towards them, Republicans are making a play and decided to nominate a woman, State Senator and former Secretary of State Ruth Johnson, who emerged from a tough primary fight against former Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, former U.S. Rep. Fred Upton, former State Representative Larry Inman and former State House Speaker Jase Bolger. But Democrats nominated a strong candidate in U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a veteran and rising star in the party, who won an easy primary against former Health Department executive director Abdul El-Sayed. It's considered a race that leans towards Slotkin, but could become competitive.
RATING: Lean D

Michigan Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin- 64.2% ✓
Fmr. Exec. Director Abdul El-Sayed- 35.8%

Michigan Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
State Sen. Ruth Johnson- 44.7% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Fred Upton- 33.6%
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Brian Calley- 13.5%
Fmr. State Rep. Jase Bolger- 6.8%
Fmr. State Rep. Larry Inman- 1.4%

Michigan Senate Election, 2024- Polling
U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin- 47%
State Sen. Ruth Johnson- 42%
Undecided\Others- 11%

Minnesota
Senator Amy Klobucher (D) vs Former U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen (R)

Senator Amy Klobucher remains very popular in Minnesota despite her failed 2020 Presidential bid. Despite that, Republicans hope to make her sweat with a credible challenge from former Representative Erik Paulsen, ousted by Dean Phillips in 2018, who cruised in the primary against non-major challengers. Paulsen is a good campaigner, but after six years out of politics, his chances of beating Klobucher are slim.
RATING: Likely D

Minnesota Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Amy Klobucher*- 51%
State Sen. Ruth Johnson- 41%
Undecided\Others- 8%

Missouri
Former U.S. Senator Jim Talent (R) vs Former State Treasurer Clint Zweifel (D)

Initially running for reelection after dropping out of his Presidential bid, Senator Josh Hawley was considered a heavy favourite in the Missouri Senate race. However, his choice as Mike Pence's running mate upended the race- he was forced to drop out, and the Republicans had to find a candidate to replace him. Many wanted Ann Wagner, but after she lost her seat in 2022 her political star faded, and so Republicans came up with a creative choice- former Senator Jim Talent, a safe and known candidate who will likely serve only one term. Democrats, meanwhile, nominated a strong candidate in former Treasurer Clint Zweifel. After Nicole Galloway won them another Senate seat in Missouri in 2022, Democrats are hopeful they could make this a race, but Talent is a safe candidate for Republicans and considered likely to defeat Zweifel in the end, largely thanks to the state's partisan lean.
RATING: Lean R

Missouri Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Fmr. U.S. Senator Jim Talent- 49%
Fmr. State Tres. Clint Zweifel- 44%
Undecided\Others- 7%

Montana
Senator Jon Tester (D) vs Former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R)

After surviving comfortably in 2018, popular Senator Jon Tester is running for a fourth term in Montana, and is considered a vulnerable Democrat in a deep conservative territory. However, he has a few factors going for him- Republicans nominated the controversial former Interior Secretary and U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke, who emerged out of a tight primary against Secretary of State Corey Stapleton thanks to his emphasis on ties with the Trump administration, and he's considered the weaker of the two candidats. Additionally, Montana's cities have been growing, moving the state leftward though it's still very conservative. All in all, it's still a tossup race but could move towards the Democrats.
RATING: Tossup

Montana Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. Sec. Ryan Zinke- 52.4% ✓
Sec. of State Corey Stapleton- 47.6%

Montana Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Jon Tester*- 45%
Fmr. Sec. Ryan Zinke- 40%
Undecided\Others- 15%

Nevada
Senator Jacky Rosen (D) vs Former Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchinson (R)

In 2018, Jacky Rosen narrowly unseated Republican Senator Dean Heller in Nevada. Now she's running for reelection in a state increasingly trending towards her party, and in a hard environment for Republicans, she's considered the heavy favourite. Republicans nominated a fairly strong candidate in former Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchison, but it's not the candidate they wanted- former Governor Sandoval- and he had to go through a bruising primary against firebrand Danny Tarkanian and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt.
RATING: Lean D

Nevada Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison- 45.3% ✓
Fmr. Attorney General Adam Laxalt- 33.5%
Perenniel Candidate Danny Tarkanian- 21.2%

Nevada Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Jacky Rosen*- 48%
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison- 44%
Undecided\Others- 8%

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Elizabeth was cautiously optimistic.

Cautious optimism.

That is what Chief of Staff John Kelly was feeling

I just noticed that you basically posted the same thing.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

I just noticed that you basically posted the same thing.

They're called "arc words", dude.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Battle for Senate- Summary (Part 2)

New Jersey
U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs Former Governor Chris Christie (R)

After one term in the Senate, Democrat Frank Pallone elected to retire. In the race to replace him, Democrats nominated the fairly moderate U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a veteran and a strong candidate who emerged from a crowded field including Lieutenant Governor Sheila Oliver, U.S. Rep. Donald Norcross and State Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter. Meanwhile, Republicans, who didn't see much hope of winning the seat, nominated the disgraced former Governor Chris Christie, who defeated 2018 nominee Bob Hugin and State Senator Michael J. Doherty in the primary. The general election isn't truly competitive, as Christie never came close to leading a poll.
RATING: Safe D

New Jersey Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill- 43.4% ✓
Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver- 35.9%
U.S. Rep. Donald Norcross- 14.1%
State Assemblywoman Savonda Sumter-6.6%

New Jersey Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie- 50.1% ✓
Businessman Bob Hugin- 28.7%
State Sen. Michael Doherty- 21.2%

New Jersey Senate Election, 2024- Polling
U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill- 53%
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie- 41%
Undecided\Others- 6%

New Mexico
Senator Martin Heinrich (D) vs Former Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez (R)

In New Mexico, popular Senator Martin Heinrich decided to run for a third term in office. Facing him from the Republicans was former Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez, who defeated former U.S. Rep. and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Steve Pearce in the primary. While Sanchez isn't a bad candidate, he isn't the candidate Republicans wanted (former Governor Susana Martinez, who decided not to run), and the state's partisan lean is too Democratic by 2024 making it hard to imagine Sanchez winning.
RATING: Likely D

New Mexico Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez- 57.3% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce- 42.7%

New Mexico Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Martin Heinrich*- 49%
Fmr. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez- 42%
Undecided\Others- 9%

North Dakota
Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs Governor Doug Burgum (R)

Having survived a challenge from State Senator Tom Campbell back in 2018, and with polarization only increasing during the Trump era, conservative Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp was considering retirement due to her tough odds. However, Jennifer Granholm's DNC and Pete Buttigieg's campaign worked hard to persuade her, and she decided to run for reelection. She's considered the single most vulnerable Democrat- Republicans nominated a very strong candidate in Governor Doug Burgum, whose final term ends this year and who they hope can beat the stubborn Heitkamp and secure the seat for them, until he probably retires after a term due to old age. And indeed, polls are showing a grim image for the Senator, making a victory here a steep climb for her.
RATING: Lean R

North Dakota Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Governor Doug Burgum- 47%
Senator Heidi Heitkamp*- 40%
Undecided\Others- 13%

Ohio
Senator Sherrod Brown (D) vs U.S. Rep. Troy Balderson (R)

The popular Democratic populist Senator Sherrod Brown is running for another term in the Senate, but though he won reelection easily against Jim Renacci back in 2018, he's now facing a tougher challenge from U.S. Rep. Troy Balderson, a fairly strong candidate first elected in a 2017 Special Election, who defeated former State Treasurer Josh Mandel, former Secretary of State and 2018 Lieutenant Governor nominee Jon Husted, former Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor and businessman J. D. Vance in the primary. Additionally, the state seems to keep moving right with the time, and so Brown is facing what seems to be the challenge of his life. He's still favoured, especially as Mike Pence's Presidential campaign gains weak polling numbers, but if these numbers improve Balderson has a very real chance to unseat him.
RATING: Lean D

Ohio Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Troy Balderson- 31.0% ✓
Venture Capitalist J. D. Vance- 28.3%
Fmr. State Tres. Josh Mandel- 15.3%
Fmr. Sec. of State Jon Husted- 13.6%
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor- 11.8%

Ohio Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Sherrod Brown*- 47%
U.S. Rep. Troy Balderson- 45%
Undecided\Others- 8%

Pennsylvania
Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D) vs U.S. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R)

The 64 years old Senator Bob Casey Jr., a popular Democratic politician in Pennsylvania, decided to run for what he says will be his last term in the Senate. While still popular in the state, and strong in the Philadelphia suburbs Democrats need to win it, he's still considered endangered as Republicans nominated a strong candidate against him in the form of U.S. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler, easily defeating House Minority Leader Dave Reed, State Senator Jake Corman and former Representative, 2018 Senate nominee and 2022 Gubernatorial nominee Lou Barletta in the primary. Despite Casey Jr.'s popularity, Reschenthaler's youth and attacks on the Senator's insincere position on abortion and long record as a Washington insider seem to be making a dent, making this race one to watch.
RATING: Lean D

Pennsylvania Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler- 54.9% ✓
State Rep. Dave Reed- 22.5%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta- 12.8%
State Sen. Jake Corman- 9.8%

Pennsylvania Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Bob Casey Jr.*- 49%
U.S. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler- 44%
Undecided\Others- 7%

Tennessee
Mayor David Briley (D) vs U.S. Rep. Mark Green (R)

After winning an upset victory in 2018, 81 years old Democratic Senator Phil Bredesen saw the signs and decided to retire after one term. Democrats nominated Nashville Mayor David Briley in a primary against State Representative Raumesh Akbari and State Senator Lee Harris. Republicans, who see this as a prime target, had a contentious primary between Governor Diane Black, conservative firebrand and U.S. Rep. Mark Green, former U.S. Rep. and 2018 nominee Marsha Blackburn, former U.S. Rep. Stephen Fincher and Knox County Mayor and former professional wrestler "Kane" Glenn Jacobs. Surprisingly, Green emerged as the victor, upsetting the frontrunner Governor Black. His incendiary positions on LGBTQs and Muslims famously forced President Trump to withdraw his nomination as Secretary of the Army, so he's a very controversial candidate. But in a state like Tennessee, he's considered very favoured right now, and this is considered the second most vulnerable Democratic seat.
RATING: Likely R

Tennessee Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
Mayor David Briley- 58.8% ✓
State Rep. Raumesh Akbari- 23.8%
State Sen. Lee Harris- 17.4%

Tennessee Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Mark Green- 31.8% ✓
Governor Diane Black- 29.2%
County Mayor Glenn Jacobs- 23.5%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn- 12.5%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Stephen Fincher- 3.0%

|Tennessee Senate Election, 2024- Polling
U.S. Rep. Mark Green- 46%
Mayor David Briley- 39%
Undecided\Others- 15%

Texas
Senator Ted Cruz (R) vs U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D)

After Democrats had great successes in the 2018 midterm elections in Texas, and even greater ones in 2022, when they won the State House and elected Governor Beto O'Rourke, the party is very hopeful that the state is finally turning towards them. And so, they're contesting it in the Presidential leve- and in the Senate level. Senator Ted Cruz, running for reelection, is considered the most vulnerable Senator this year due to a strong challenge- the Democrats nominated popular U.S. Rep. Colin Allred over former Secretary of HUD and Presidential candidate Julian Castro. Six years after nearly losing to O'Rourke, Cruz seems to be facing an equally strong challenge in a state that trended further leftward.
RATING: Tossup

Texas Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Colin Allred- 55.9% ✓
Fmr. HUD Sec. Julian Castro- 42.7%
Others- 1.4%

|Texas Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Ted Cruz*- 46%
U.S. Rep. Colin Allred- 43%
Undecided\Others- 11%

Virgina
U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) vs former U.S. Rep. Scott Taylor (R)

Senator Tim Kaine's surprising decision to retire at the end of his 2nd term launched an all-out battle between ambitious Virginia Democrats itching for a Senate vacancy. The main contenders were former Governor Terry McAuliffe, former Attorney General Mark Herring, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger and former Representative Tom Perriello. Stoney, who was supported by Governor Justin Fairfax, and McAuliffe were considered the frontrunners but surprisingly, Spanberger emerged as the victor over more established names. Republicans, meanwhile, tried to contest the seat by nominating a credible candidate in former U.S. Rep. Scott Taylor, who defeated pastor E. W. Jackson, former State Delegate Nick Freitas and conservative firebrand Laura Ingraham in the primary, but Spanberger is heavily favoured.
RATING: Likely D

Virginia Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger- 30.5% ✓
Fmr. Governor Terry McAuliffe- 27.3%
Mayor Levar Stoney- 24.4%
Fmr. Att. Gen. Mark Herring- 14.1%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello- 3.7%

Virginia Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Scott Taylor- 43.2% ✓
Ms. Laura Ingraham- 35.0%
Fmr. State Del. Nick Freitas- 17.5%
Pastor E. W. Jackson- 4.3%

|Virginia Senate Election, 2024- Polling
U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger- 50%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Scott Taylor- 41%
Undecided\Others- 9%

West Virgina
Former State Senator Richard Ojeda (D) vs State Delegatee Roger Hanshaw (R)

Another endangered Democratic seat this year is the one in West Virginia, where Senator Joe Manchin chose to retire despite narrowly defeating his opponent, Evan Jenkins, in 2018. Manchin saw the wave of polarization approaching him in his heavily pro-Trump state, and didn't run for another term. Democrats, trying to keep the seat, nominated former State Senator Richard Ojeda, a populist, who won the primary unopposed. Republicans, meanwhile, nominated House of Delegates Speaker Roger Hanshaw, a young and popular conservative Republican, who defeated two bigger names, U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney and former Governor Jim Justice, in the primary. The election is stacked against Ojeda, who lost a House race in 2018, and Republicans view this as the single likeliest Democratic Senate seat to flip.
RATING: Likely R

West Virginia Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
State Del. Roger Hanshaw- 52.3% ✓
U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney- 26.4%
Fmr. Governor Jim Justice- 21.3%

West Virginia Senate Election, 2024- Polling
State Del. Roger Hanshaw- 47%
Fmr. State Sen. Richard Ojeda- 38%
Undecided\Others- 15%

Wisconsin
Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) vs former Governor Scott Walker (R)

In a state moving towards Republicans and voting for President Trump twice, Senator Tammy Baldwin, a progressive and openly lesbian, has been able to stay remarkably popular and won an easy reelection in 2018. Now she's running for a third term, and Republicans chose to nominate a candidate they think is strong, but could be problematic- former Governor Scott Walker, who was already rejected twice in the state in the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial races against Governor Tony Evers. Walker seems adamant to win elected office again, and his campaign believes Wisconsin moved sufficiently to the right to beat Baldwin. However, his shaky record and Baldwin's popularity make this a tall order for Republicans.
RATING: Lean D

Wisconsin Senate Election, 2024- Polling
Senator Tammy Baldwin- 48%
Fmr. Governor Scott Walker- 45%
Undecided\Others- 7%

Other Retiring Incumbents

In several safe races where the challenging party could only nominate token candidates, the incumbent Senators retired due to old age or other reasons, creating an interesting primary that practically decided the next Senator for these states.

Delaware: Four-term incumbent Tom Carper, facing primary calls from progressives like Alexandra Ocaio-Cortez, chose to retire rather than face a possible challenge. The Democratic primary was between Governor John Carney, State Senator Bryan Townsend, former Governor Jack Markell and U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester. After a hard-fought campaign and riding on a splintered field and strong minority support, Blunt Rochester managed to win the primary narrowly. Republicans nominated State Senator Greg Lavelle. RATING: Safe D

Delaware Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester- 32.7% ✓
Fmr. Governor Jack Markell- 28.1%
Governor John Carney- 25.5%
State Senator Bryan Townsend- 13.7%

Maryland: After three terms and at the age of 81, Senator Ben Cardin decided to retire, paving the way to an all-out battle for the Democratic nomination. Former Presidential candidate and Congressman John Delaney, U.S. Rep. John Sarbanes, former Governor Martin O'Malley, former County Executive Rushern Baker and former Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake ran for the seat, but Sarbanes handily won the primary after leading all along. Republicans nominated token opposition in former County Excecutive Allan Kittleman. RATING: Safe D

Maryland Senate Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. John Sarbanes- 41.4% ✓
Fmr. County Exec. Rushern Baker- 24.3%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. John Delaney- 17.5%
Fmr. Governor Martin O'Malley- 16.8%

Nebraska: Originally running on a promise of limiting herself to two Senate terms, Republican Deb Fischer decided to honour her promise to retire. The Republican field to inherit the seat was contested between former Governor Pete Ricketts, U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith and former U.S. Rep. Don Bacon. Ricketts initially lead, but his unpopularity sank him and allowed Smith to emerge victor. Democrats flirted with nominating U.S. Rep. Brad Ashford, but he decided to run for reelection to another term in the House in his Democratic-trending district. Instead, they nominated former party chairwoman Jane Kleeb. RATING: Safe R

Nebraska Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith- 43.5% ✓
Fmr. Governor Pete Ricketts- 38.1%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Don Bacon- 18.4%

Utah: As speculated by many Senator Mitt Romney decided to step down from his seat after one term. Days later, with Romney's endorsement, his son businessman Josh Romney announced his Senate bid. But unlike the 2012 Republican nominee might've thought, it wasn't going to be a cakewalk for his son- soon, former U.S. Reps. Mia Love, Jason Chaffetz and John Curtis, State Representative Mike Kennedy and Attorney General Sean Reyes all jumped in, each chopping some of Romney's support. Reyes, who appealed against a judge who struck down the state's ban on same sex marriage in 2013, the conservative Chaffetz and Kennedy split the more right-wing vote while Love, Curtis and Romney split the moderate vote. In the end, in a shock to the Romney family, John Curtis narrowly defeated Josh Romney in the primary, a disastrous ending for Mitt Romney's gamble. Democrats nominated a fairly strong candidate in State Senator Luz Robles Escamilla, but her chances are zero. RATING: Safe R

Utah Senate Election, 2024 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. U.S. Rep. John Curtis- 32.7% ✓
Businessman Josh Romney- 32.3%
Att. Gen. Sean Reyes- 20.5%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Mia Love- 9.0%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz- 4.9%
State Rep. Mike Kennedy- 0.6%

[Continential]

The names are wrong in West Virginia

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Uhh, you already had Bob Menendez not running for re-election in this timeline in 2018, and Frank Pallone getting elected Senator that year.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Uhh, you already had Bob Menendez not running for re-election in this timeline in 2018, and Frank Pallone getting elected Senator that year.

The names are wrong in West Virginia

Right, thanks. Will correct. In these types of huge effortposts, things tend to slip by.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I really hope the fillibuster-proof Democratic Senate majority holds long enough for a Democratic president to take advantage of it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Gubernatorial Mansions- Summary

While the Senate battle garners more attention due to the sheer volume of competitive races, there are several interesting Governorships up for election this year, though less than in a midterm. Democrats, who enjoy a hold on the vast majority of Governor's Mansions after two successful midterms, hope to preserve and expand their hold, while Republicans hope to begin a recovery. Let's go over the key races.

Indiana
Lieutenant Governor Linda Lawson (D) vs U.S. Rep. Greg Pence (R)

In one of the most interesting gubernatorial races in the country, Pete Buttigieg's Lieutenant Governor, Linda Lawson, is running against the Vice President's brother, Greg Pence. Both nominees of the major parties are putting a lot of stock in their respective candidates, with the matter being very personal for both- if Pence's brother loses in Indiana with him on the ballot it'll certainly be a humiliation, while Buttigieg hopes Hoosiers will endorse his legacy by voting for his Lieutenant, who's running as a second term of Mayor Pete. While Indiana is a conservative state, making Pence's election as a conservative stalwart more likely than not, Lawson is a good candidate with the record of a police veteran, Pence isn't considered a particularly inspiring candidate and Buttigieg has high approvals despite his Presidential campaign, making this a potentially close battle.
RATING: Lean R

Indiana Gubernatorial Election (Republican Primary)- Results
U.S. Rep. Greg Pence- 58.4% ✓
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch- 25.1%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Luke Messer- 16.5%

Indiana Gubernatorail Election, 2024- Polling
U.S. Rep. Greg Pence- 47%
Lieutenant Governor Linda Lawson- 43%
Undecided\Others- 10%

Missouri
Governor Jason Kander (D) vs Fmr. U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner (R)

Jason Kander, one of Pete Buttigieg's biggest supporters and a former 2020 Presidential candidate, is running for reelection as Governor in a deeply conservative state. But while his national figure harmed him amongst Missouri conservatives, his tenure is considered successful and he maintains decent popularity. Still, Republicans are making a play for his seat, nominating former U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, who was unseated in the 2022 Democratic wave and is now making a play for Governor. She emerged as victor in the primary against former Lieutenant Governor Mike Parson, State Representative Paul Curtman and former State House Speaker Todd Richardson partially thanks to her argument of electability, but can she beat the charismatic and telegenic Kander?
RATING: Tossup

Missouri Gubernatorial Election (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner- 33.9% ✓
State Rep. Paul Curtman- 29.2%
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Mike Parson- 21.3%
State Rep. Todd Richardson- 15.6%

Missouri Gubernatorail Election, 2024- Polling
Governor Jason Kander*- 46%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner- 45%
Undecided\Others- 9%

Montana
Governor Tim Fox (R) vs Former Governor Brian Schweitzer (D)

Montana Governor Tim Fox is considered fairly safe- he's not unpopular and he's in a conservative state. However, Montana's notorious elasticity and the Democrats' success recruiting a strong candidate in former Governor Brian Schweitzer, who's able to run for a non-consecutive third tem, makes this a race to put on the rader. Right now the Republican is leading safely, but this could turn close if Schweitzer runs a good campaign, so Republicans would be foolish to take it for granted.
RATING: Likely R

Montana Gubernatorail Election, 2024- Polling
Governor Tim Fox*- 47%
Former Governor Brian Schweitzer- 41%
Undecided\Others- 12%

North Carolina
Former Treasurer Janet Cowell (D) vs Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R)

With the retirement of popular Governor Roy Cooper, a key Governorship in a swing state opens up. Democrats nominated former Treasurer Janet Cowell, who dispatched former U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, former State Senate Majority Leader Dan Blue and State Representative Grier Martin in the primary, using her successful tenure as Treasurer and charisma. However, Republicans nominated a strong candidate in Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, who barely survived in 2020 after opting not to run in favour of former Governor Pat McRory who was seeking a rematch. Forest, who cruised through a primary against pastor Mark Harris, is now one of the last Republican statewide office-holders, and holds some advantages against Cowell, who hasn't been a candidate since the 2010s. Still, with the state increasingly leaning left, the Democrat seems to start with an advantage.
RATING: Tossup

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election (Democratic Primary)- Results
Fmr. State Tres. Janet Cowell- 35.4% ✓
Fmr. State Sen. Dan Blue- 27.8%
State Rep. Grier Martin- 20.3%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler- 16.5%

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election (Republican Primary)- Results
Lt. Gov. Dan Forest- 61.7% ✓
Pastor Mark Harris- 38.3%

North Caroliana Gubernatorail Election, 2024- Polling
Fmr. State Tres. Janet Cowell- 48%
Lt. Gov. Dan Forest- 46%
Undecided\Others- 6%

New Hampshire
Governor Stefany Shaheen (D) vs Former Attorney General Gordon MacDonald (R)

Three-term incumbent Democratic Governor Stefany Shaheen is running for reelection for a fourth term in 2024. After defeating Governor John Sununu in 2018 she cruised to reelection in 2020 and 2022. But in 2026, when her mother, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, has already announced her retirement, the Governor is expected to run for the seat- and Republicans are determined to stop her. And so they nominated a strong candidate in former Attorney General Gordon MacDonald, who's running on his strong record of law and its enforcement. With the opioid epidemic still raging hard in New Hampshire and MacDonald's law-and-order campaign emphasizing it, and with Shaheen's approval ratings slipping, it looks like it's the strongest challenge she's facing since Governor Sununu in 2018.
RATING: Lean D

New Hampshire Gubernatorail Election, 2024- Polling
Governor Stefany Shaheen*- 47%
Fmr. Att. Gen. Gordon MacDonald- 44%
Undecided\Others- 9%

Vermont
State Senator Kiah Morris (D) vs Former State Senator Dustin Allard Degree (R) vs Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman (P)

After popular Republican Governor Phil Scott decided to retire (and subsequently announced an independent Presidential campaign), the Democratic field to replace him ballooned. Progressive favourite and Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman, supported by Senator Tim Ashe, started as the frontrunner, but soon enough the attacks on his shaky record on technology and vaccinations took toll, and in the end, State Senator Kiah Morris, an African American who ran as a more mainstream progressive, won the primary. But the Progressive Party still nominated Zuckerman, leading to a three-way race between Morris, Zuckerman and Republican Dustin Allard Degree, Scott's handpicked successor. This is considered a very close tossup race, with all three candidates having a chance.
RATING: Tossup

Vermont Gubernatorial Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
State Senator Kiah Morris- 32.8% ✓
Speaker Mitzi Johnson- 29.2%
Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman- 22.4%
Fmr. Mayor Miro Weinberger- 11.0%
Fmr. Speaker Shap Smith- 4.6%

Vermont Gubernatorial Election, 2024- Polling
State Senator Kiah Morris (D)- 32%%
Fmr. State Senator Dustin Allard Degree (R)- 30%
Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman (P)- 27%
Undecided\Others- 11%

Other Races

In other gubernatorial races, the general election has no real competition as one party of the other is sure to keep the Mansion. Still, some of these races had open primaries due to term-limited Governors, so it's worth going over them.

Delaware: In the First State, incumbent Governor John Carney is term-limited, and instead jumped to a (failed) Senate bid. Running in the Democratic primary to replace him were former Republican congressional candidate and Democratic Presidential candidate Scott Walker, former Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General Matthew Denn, former State House Speaker Pete Schwartzkopf and former Markell aide Sean Barney, and Denn easily emerged with the victory. Republicans nominated a credible candidate in former Treasurer Ken Simpler, but polls show him with little to no chance. RATING: Safe D

Delaware Gubernatorial Election, 2024 (Democratic Primary)- Results
Fmr. Att. Gen. Matthew Denn- 60.9% ✓
Fmr. State Rep. Pete Schwartzkopf- 26.9%
Mr. Sean Barney- 8.8%
Mr. Scott Walker- 3.4%

North Dakota: With Governor Doug Burgum term-limited and running for Senate, North Dakota's Republican had to choose a nominee who'd very likely inherit him. The primary was contested between U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer, former State Senator and 2018 Senate nominee Tom Campbell, State Representative and fiscal libertarian Rick Becker and former Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem. Surprisingly, the frontrunner Cramer, who will likely be replaced by Republican Kelly Armstrong in the House, fell short, and Becker narrowly won the primary. Democrats nominated a sacrifical lamb, former State Senator Mac Schneider. RATING: Safe R

North Dakota Gubernatorial Election (Republican Primary)- Results
State Rep. Rick Becker- 34.2% ✓
U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer- 33.1%
Fmr. Att. Gen. Wayne Stenehjem- 25.9%
Fmr. State Sen. Tom Campbell- 6.8%

Utah: Incumbent Governor Matthew S. Holland, the former UVU President who surprisingly won a Republican primary back in 2020 and is considered a moderate and a devoted Mormon, is running for reelection against Democratic House Minority Leader Brian King. There's no real chance that Holland could be unseated, especially after Jason Chaffetz, the 2020 primary runner-up, chose to forego a challenge and run for the Senate instead. RATING: Safe R

Washington: After winning the 2020 gubernatorial race, Jenny Durkan, former Seattle Mayor and the first openly LGBTQ Governor of Washington, is running for a second term. Former U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert is the Republican challenging her, claiming that her lukewarm approvals can give him a chance, but his old age and the state's lean give him little chance. RATING: Likely D

West Virginia: After defeating former Governor Jim Justice in the 2020 primary and general election, West Virginia Governor Evan Jenkins is running for a second term. An establishment favourite, he turned back a challenge from far-right convicted felon Don Blankenship, and is expected to cruise to victory against Democratic nominee Woody Thrasher, the former Commerce Secretary. RATING: Safe R

West Virginia Gubernatorial Election (Republican Primary)- Results
Governor Evan Jenkins*- 65.5% ✓
Businessman Don Blankenship- 34.5%[/b]

[America Needs R'hllor]

Mike

"Look, I'm not President Trump, I'm my own person, and I certainly had no knowledge of Trump Jr's or Kushner's affairs, or anyone else's." Mike Pence said in his most convincing voice. "My focus was always only on advancing a conservative, responsible, values-driven agenda for the American people, and that's what I'll do as President."

"But still," moderator Elaine Quijano pressed, "you were the Vice President, an integral part of an administration in which key figures around the President were indicted and convicted for collusion with a foreign country to interfere with American elections. Are you saying you didn't catch whiff of anything?"

Pence shook his head. "You're just mischaracterizing things, Elaine. There is absolutely no proof, no indication, that President Trump knew anything about his son's or son's in law's... misguided activities. They did it of their own accord and there was definitely no way for me to know about it. Let's not be dishonest here."

The Vice President smiled slightly. He was doing pretty well in the debate- sure, it wasn't smooth sailing for any of them, and Buttigieg was a good debator, but he was holding on well. Both major party nominees managed to get in some attacks, and both managed to get some good lines. Pence was hoping that a good debate could solidify his standing with the base, and then he could start climbing up. It was especially good that Phil Scott couldn't get into the debate, which was sure to hurt his candidacy if he couldn't pick it up in time for the second or third debates.

The moderator turned to the Democratic nominee. "Governor Buttigieg, your reaction? Do you believe Vice President Pence?"

"You know, in the end it's not up to me to decide, it's up to the American people to determine whether they believe the Vice President or not." Pete spoke carefully. "In the end, it's not a good look either way- either President Trump and his Vice President were completely ignorant of the deeds of major figures in their circle, which makes them bad administrators and leaders, or they knew, an option which I think I don't need to describe how bad it is. But Russia is not the major issue- it's important, yes, but we need to talk about the real ideological differences between us. We need to talk about how Vice President Pence supported Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare with no solid replacement in sight, and how he still hasn't presented a real plan other than the "repeal and replace" slogan. We need to talk about the fact that Vice President Pence claims to care about the deficits, but supported a tax cuts for the rich bill that just increased it, and supported the efforts of his boss to build a wasteful, useless wall fantasy. And we need to talk about how Vice President Pence didn't just refused to apologize for his terrible past comments on women serving in the army and on LGBTQ Americans, but denied them and lied to the American people. That's what we need to talk about, and that's what disqualifies the Vice President."

"Vice President Pence, do you want to respond?" The moderator looked at him.

"Well, Elaine..." In his calm, unbreakable demeanor, Mike Pence started his answer, ready to elegantly jump around the points he couldn't answer and attack the Democratic party's socialist plans that will cause major debt and their radical social agenda. That way, he'd deflect his opponent's points without having to address his own problems. Mike knew how to handle these attacks. And most importantly- Pete didn't really know how to handle him and his calm, steely demeanor. He didn't know how to respond to the way he twisted words with a straight face and a sanctimonious tone. He got flustered and looked like an angry child. That helped Pence- he knew he was winning the debate, even if not decisively.

Who won the 1st Presidential debate (among debate watchers)?
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 46%
Governor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)- 41%
Draw\Undecided- 13%

General Election Polling- National
Governor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)\Senator Anthony Foxx (D-NC)- 44%%
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)\Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO)- 41%
Governor Phil Scott (R\I-VT)\U.S. Rep. Spencer J. Cox (R\I-UT)- 6%
City Councillor Nicholas Sarwark (L-AZ)\Activist Zoltan Istvan (L-CA)- 2%
Businessman Don Blankenship (C-WV)\Fmr. U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman (C-TX)- 1%
Activist Howie Hawkins (G-NY)\Activist Gary Swing (G-AZ)- 0%
Other\Undecided- 6%
BUTTIGIEG +3

[KaiserDave]

No Phil?
Disappointed