Canadian Election 2019

[mileslunn]

Kenora swung to the PCs provincially too; it's not really that surprising.

True although I would have not put it as a top pick to flip.  Was it perhaps the carbon tax or do they just swing more in line with what Manitoba does as in Ontario as a whole Tories lost votes.

[mileslunn]

Northern Ontario is very "populist" or "WWC". One of my fears about having Singh as leader was that he would not appeal at all to Northerners. And on the same note, Trudeau's brand of Liberalism doesn't play well in the North either. Nonetheless, both parties held their own in terms of keeping their seats (Kenora notwithstanding), but did tread water to the Tories in most ridings. The Tories don't have much history winning seats in the North, so probably have little ground game.  I'm sure a better campaign in the Soo could've flipped it though.

What is it about the Soo that causes the Tories do so much better there than other Northern ON towns?

If you look at just polls and not ridings, generally Tories do well in areas near the southern edge of Northern Ontario, but once you get deeper north they do poorly.

[mileslunn]

Because I'm too lazy/distracted at the moment, does anyone want to report on advance/special vs final tallies (i.e. where the leading party was different from the final result)?

Eric Grenier did a comparison of advance voting numbers and election day numbers.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-advance-polls-1.5399398

Advance voting was about 27% of all ballots.
Conservative party got 36,3% (leading in 133 seats)
Liberal party 33% (leading in 149 seats)
New Democrats 13,3% (19 seats)
Bloc Québécois 8,6% (33 seats)
Green party 6,6% (3 seats)
People's party 1,5%
Jody Wilson-Raybould was ahead in Vancouver Granville.

Result of only the ballots cast on election day:
Conservative 33,6% (ahead in 118 seats)
Liberal 33,2% (ahead in 155 seats)
NDP 17% (ahead in 27 seats)
Bloc 7,4% (ahead in 34 seats)
Green 6,4% (ahead in 3 seats)
People 1,6%

The CPC took less of the vote on election day than they did in the advance polls in every region of the country except Atlantic Canada.

He lists ridings where the difference between the two results change the outcome.

There were a dozen ridings where the Conservatives' performance on election day cost them the seat — ridings where their lead in the advance poll was not wide enough to compensate for poorer results on Oct. 21.

This boosted both the Liberals and the New Democrats. Largely due to the Conservatives falling back on election day, the Liberals picked up King–Vaughan, Kitchener–Conestoga and Richmond Hill in Ontario, Winnipeg South in Manitoba, Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam in British Columbia and Yukon in the North.

The NDP's election day boost pushed them ahead of the Conservatives in Elmwood–Transcona in Manitoba and Skeena–Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan–West Kootenay and North Island–Powell River in British Columbia. The NDP also was able to beat the Liberals in Windsor West in Ontario and the Greens in Victoria, B.C. on election day.

While the Greens lost Victoria, they made up for it with a gain in Fredericton, where the Conservatives had been leading after the advance polls. The Bloc also took Beauport–Limoilou away from the Conservatives on election day.

But the Liberals bolstered their own minority with wins in Quebec on Oct. 21. The party had been trailing the Bloc in Hochelaga, Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne and Québec after the advance poll. They pulled out a win in these three ridings on election day (though the opposite happened in Shefford, where the Bloc stole a riding where the Liberals led in the advance poll). They also came from behind in the Ontario riding of Davenport, where the NDP had been ahead after Thanksgiving's voting.

In some ridings the winner of the advance poll ballots had a big enough lead to win the election even though it came second on election day ballots.

n a few ridings, meanwhile, the advance poll made the difference. In the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, the Ontario riding of Kenora and the B.C. riding of Port Moody–Coquitlam, the Conservatives built up enough of a lead in the advance poll to stay ahead despite finishing second on election day itself.

Meanwhile, their (Liberals) advance poll results allowed them to prevail in Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine in Quebec — despite losing election day itself to the Bloc — and Windsor–Tecumseh in Ontario, where the NDP took more of the vote on election day.

I believe every election Tories have done better in advanced polls than election day.  They have the most motivated base so they are good at getting their supporters out early.  Usually those who are certain who they will vote for are more likely to vote in advanced polls than those on the fence and Tories have the highest floor but lower ceiling than Liberals.  Likewise all parties tend to try to get supporters our for advanced voting so they have those votes locked in and can focus on undecided as well as ensure if something happens that prevents those people from voting they have those votes. 

[mileslunn]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

[mileslunn]

Looks like in Essex County, Tories pretty much cleaned up all the rural polls even ones in 2011 they failed to win, while it was the towns in Essex riding NDP won and Windsor NDP/Liberal so classic rural/urban split.

SW Ontario has a fair number of "rurban" ridings with a sizable manufacturing presence.  Essex, Sarnia, Chatham, Oxford etc.

But also, in a repeat of a pattern elsewhere (Western Canada, especially), electoral patterns are "sorting" much more dramatically on the Conservatives' behalf in rural/agricultural areas.  Whereas until quite recently, rural Essex retained a certain ancestral Windsor-zone "agrarian elasticity".

Yes, a lot of people work in manufacturing in SW Ontario likely live in a rural-ish setting, and they're more conservative than working class urban centers like Windsor. 

Haven't crunched the numbers yet, but just eyeballing map, looks like Tories might have won Tecumseh which I don't believe they even won in 2011 although maybe the more dense parties they lost or could be on vote splits as was a two way race in 2011 whereas this time more of a three way race so probably lower vote percentage than 2011.