538 senate model now out

[Stuart98]

Polls only model seems fine, polls+ or whatever they call it is ludicrous. Doug Jones does not have a 28% chance of winning.

[Stuart98]

Hmm, yes, the "being down 18 points in the polls make you more likely to win" take from the 538 classic model here:



The other two models also show (less dramatic) swings towards Jones. I'm dumbfounded at what they're seeing that's good news for him here. This is literally the worst poll for Jones so far this cycle.

[Stuart98]

Hmm, yes, the "being down 18 points in the polls make you more likely to win" take from the 538 classic model here:

<snip>

The other two models also show (less dramatic) swings towards Jones. I'm dumbfounded at what they're seeing that's good news for him here. This is literally the worst poll for Jones so far this cycle.

Looks like it was an error. They updated it and now Jones only has a 24% chance to win in the Deluxe model (down from 28% yesterday). Probably just reversed the numbers or something.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1308427398359252992
Not an error per se, but unintended behavior.