538 senate model now out

[Sorenroy]

Silver once again shows his hand. He says that this year his default will be the deluxe model for seemingly no other reason other than that it's the most favorable to Republicans.

Don't be such a hack. 538 always uses the fundamentals-inclusive model as its default. It did the same thing in 2018 and in fact that time it led to overestimating the Democrats (since most incumbents were Democrats that cycle). There's a legitimate criticism that his model weighs incumbency too heavily, but that's different from accusing Nate ing Silver of having a partisan agenda.

For the record, the 2018 model used the "Classic" model as its default. Their own coverage of their models two years ago was that the "Deluxe" was probably a slightly better forecast, but that they were defaulting the Classic because it was more reflective of 538's own data and didn't reach beyond the site. I don't think the change is a conspiracy, especially since they probably should have been going with the best model before anyway, but there's no doubt that they changed it up for this year.

[Sorenroy]

Silver once again shows his hand. He says that this year his default will be the deluxe model for seemingly no other reason other than that it's the most favorable to Republicans.

Don't be such a hack. 538 always uses the fundamentals-inclusive model as its default. It did the same thing in 2018 and in fact that time it led to overestimating the Democrats (since most incumbents were Democrats that cycle). There's a legitimate criticism that his model weighs incumbency too heavily, but that's different from accusing Nate ing Silver of having a partisan agenda.

For the record, the 2018 model used the "Classic" model as its default. Their own coverage of their models two years ago was that the "Deluxe" was probably a slightly better forecast, but that they were defaulting the Classic because it was more reflective of 538's own data and didn't reach beyond the site. I don't think the change is a conspiracy, especially since they probably should have been going with the best model before anyway, but there's no doubt that they changed it up for this year.

Nobody says it's a conspiracy or he does it for partisan reasons. The guy is simply trying to cover his ass in case of a new 2016 or a new Florida 2018. It's the same reason why his presidential model and poll aggregate favors Trump this year.

He has no integrity, thats all. Also it’s hard to take this model seriously when it gives Jones a better chance of winning than Ossoff LMAO.

You're both saying that Nate Silver is making his model worse in order to lean on the numbers and fabricate a good outcome for the Republicans when Silver himself has said that's absolutely not true. That's not conspiratorial thinking? I don't doubt that thought was put into switching the default model from Classic to Deluxe, but I doubt it was to collect brownie points from people who don't understand how percentages work.

[Sorenroy]

Hmm, yes, the "being down 18 points in the polls make you more likely to win" take from the 538 classic model here:



The other two models also show (less dramatic) swings towards Jones. I'm dumbfounded at what they're seeing that's good news for him here. This is literally the worst poll for Jones so far this cycle.

Looks like it was an error. They updated it and now Jones only has a 24% chance to win in the Deluxe model (down from 28% yesterday). Probably just reversed the numbers or something.