'00-'12 County Trend Map

[YaBoyNY]

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.

[YaBoyNY]

Sort of expected. Romney played better than the typical Republican in NE suburbs and even the cities themselves.

It's easier for Northeasterners to get behind someone who's perceived as a fiscal conservative and (perceptively speaking) a social moderate than for a typical Republican candidate.

I'd like to see what Hillary vs. pre-Akin/Duggar Huckabee would look like.  Probably insane polarization like this?

Something close to that. Huckabee would not fly in Northeastern suburbs or urban areas. Hillary would probably easily surpass Gore's margins here.

[YaBoyNY]

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.

[YaBoyNY]

American Suburbia moves towards the Democrats while the GOP continues to become the party of poor, rural, Southern Whites. 

Yeah, the Democrats will just abandon fiscal liberalism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes), and the Republicans will just abandon fiscal conservatism (and therefore the vast majority of their votes) and this new reality where your dream of a GOP-branded resurrection of the spirit of the Southern Democrat will reign supreme!!

Poor, rural Southern Whites are a very small minority of GOP voters, dude.

His post was wrong, but this one is as well.

Poor, rural Southern Whites and those who vote like them are a rather sizeable number of the GOP base.

Likewise, Northeastern and Midwestern suburbs have moved and continue to move towards the Democrats. The exurbs, however, are becoming more Republican.

They're sizable, sure, but as I said in another thread, let's not forget the tens of millions of Republicans in New England, the upper Midwest and the West Coast who are virtually unrepresented in DC but are still registered Republicans.  Once you count all of them, every single Republican who lives outside of the South and middle-class to upper middle-class Republicans in the South, I stand by my comment that a group of people as specific as "poor, rural, Southern Whites" is a definite minority of Republicans...

And yes, many Northern suburbs have trended Democrat, but the reasons (which have been pointed out by other posters in several other threads) are obviously more complex than our Mississippi Republican friend (who seems to desperately want politics to be this battle between simple, hard working rural folks and these cosmopolitan elites) makes them out to be.  For example, the rich Whites in Orange County who have made it GOP ground for decades aren't becoming any less Republican, Orange County is just becoming less White.

Sure, if we count registered Republicans and registered Democrats, but we shouldn't truly count that as any indication. After all, the most registered party in West Virginia and Kentucky is the Democratic party.

Northern suburbs trending Democrat is also different from Western suburbs trending Democrat. Here in New York atleast, and probably throughout the rest of the upper I-95, it's two-fold: White suburbanites of all classes becoming repulsed from the modern Republican party over the course of 20 years, and an increase in minorities.

On the other hand, places like Orange County are trending mostly due to what you said. An increase of minorities.

[YaBoyNY]

I was just about to make such a map for New England. Bumping this for all the people who think NH has been trending Republican over the last years And notice the strong Democratic trend despite the fact that Romney was a MUCH better fit for the state then George W. Bush.

I haven't seen anyone say it's "trending Republican" (very few places didn't after 2008).  That'd be stupid.

Almost as stupid as calling it a "Deep Blue State."

No, few places didn't swing Republican after 2008, but lots of states trended Democratic. New Hampshire just happened to trend Republican in 2008 and 2012. 2004 is really the huge setback in New Hampshire's Republican trend. In the other 3 out of the last four elections (2000, 2008, 2012), New Hampshire trended Republican.

Are you going to make an argument that New Hampshire is becoming more Republican?