NJ Primary Discussion

[Keystone Phil]

Discussion of tonight's Primary and results.

[Keystone Phil]

Any exit poll's

Stop right there. No discussion of that. 

[Keystone Phil]

I REALLY hope Murphy gets more votes than predicted.  Forrester and Schundler are way overrated.

I can see Murphy breaking into double digits but not by much. Murphy will receive 12-13% at the most. I'm sticking with my prediction of 7% for Murphy though.

[Keystone Phil]

Did anyone on the board vote in the primary today? Who did you vote for?

I believe the only NJ resident on the forum of voting age is South Jersey and he's an Independent.

[Keystone Phil]

My prediction from about a week ago

My prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Forrester - 43%
Schundler - 32%
Murphy - 7%
Schroeder - 7%
DiGaetanto - 5%
Lonegan - 5%
Caliguire - 1%

[Keystone Phil]

Call me crazy, but...

Prediction:

Schundler: 38%
Forrester: 36%
Murhpy: 12%
All Others: 14%

You're crazy. 

Here's why...

Forrester up 43% to 31%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=121c8761-a76e-4615-b396-5a793db2b9d3

[Keystone Phil]

Forrester is the only one with a shot of taking down corzine...

that and he isn't as crazy as Bret "I lost this race 4 years ago" Schundler.

Ugh...and Corzine will win...ick.

Forrester has the best shot at beating Corzine and it can happen. Corzine is the obvious favorite starting off but that can change. Forrester can win this thing.

[Keystone Phil]

I didn't vote, obviously. You should take note that all of these men really are terrible candidates, and I'm even having second thoughts about Corzine. Imagine a governor like Whitman and Senator Andrews -- that would be ideal!

That's too bad you didn't vote. I forgot NJ allows Independents voting rights in the other party primary.

Forrester isn't a really terrible candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

That's too bad you didn't vote. I forgot NJ allows Independents voting rights in the other party primary.

Forrester isn't a really terrible candidate.

Im suprised you aren't supporting Schundler.  He is the conservative in this race (Forrester vs Schundler) isn't he?

I consider all the candidates conservative. How far right/close to the center they are is where it gets tricky. Schundler is the more conservative candidate but Forrester is conservative enough for me and can win.

[Keystone Phil]

Where are you getting results?

http://www.wnbc.com/politics/4580221/detail.html

[Keystone Phil]

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/features/election.html#GovernorGOP-Primary

16% reporting


FORRESTER [GOP]  18,677 38% 
 SCHUNDLER [GOP]  15,310 31% 
 LONEGAN [GOP]  4,206 9% 
 SCHROEDER [GOP]  4,114 8% 
 MURPHY [GOP]  3,527 7% 
 DIGAETANO [GOP]  2,246 5% 
 CALIGUIRE [GOP]  939 2%

[Keystone Phil]

24% reporting

FORRESTER [GOP]  25,866 38% 
 SCHUNDLER [GOP]  21,594 31% 
 LONEGAN [GOP]  5,920 9% 
 SCHROEDER [GOP]  5,350 8% 
 MURPHY [GOP]  5,235 8% 
 DIGAETANO [GOP]  3,257 5% 
 CALIGUIRE [GOP]  1,345 2%

[Keystone Phil]

Lonegan and Schroeder are beating Murphy?!?!?!

For now. That won't last long.

[Keystone Phil]

PoliticsNJ.com has called the race for DOUG FORRESTER

[Keystone Phil]

68% reporting

FORRESTER [GOP]  72,272 36% 
SCHUNDLER [GOP]  62,655 31% 
MURPHY [GOP]  24,397 12% 
LONEGAN [GOP]  16,799 8% 
SCHROEDER [GOP]  10,779 5% 
DIGAETANO [GOP]  10,956 5% 
CALIGUIRE [GOP]  4,130 2%

[Keystone Phil]

Is he pro-choice?

Yes but aside from that, Forrester is a rather conservative candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

84% reporting

Forrester - 35%
Schundler - 31%

[Keystone Phil]

Is he pro-choice?

Yes

Oh. Well, that's always good to hear.

[Keystone Phil]

Forrester had a great victory speech.  I think that he has a very good chance of winning.

It really was an excellent address and he can win in November, no doubt about that.

[Keystone Phil]

He better do exceptionally well among Independents and Moderate Democrats because social conservatives will be sitting this one out.

Wrong. Some social conservatives will sit it out but it's very, very clear that social conservatives dislike Corzine more than anyone else in this race. Plus, Forrester is not some liberal like Schundler tried to make him out to be. I expect Forrester to take the Independent vote, too.

[Keystone Phil]

Wrong. Some social conservatives will sit it out but it's very, very clear that social conservatives dislike Corzine more than anyone else in this race.

Whats the difference between Corzine and Forrester when it comes to social issues?

It might be the fact that Corzine has compiled one of the most liberal records in the Senate and Forrester is no where near that. The only thing that they're the same on is that they're Pro Choice. NJ conservatives obviously despise Corzine. They might not like Forrester but they'd take him any day of the week over Corzine.

[Keystone Phil]

New Jersey is still, essentially, a blue state.

Not by all that much and Forrester is a strong enough candidate to overcome that.

[Keystone Phil]

Closer than I expected...

Come November, a lot of people will be surprised.

[Keystone Phil]

Elect Tom Kean in 2006?

That's actually likely to happen especially if Corzine is Governor so don't get down Festoon.

[Keystone Phil]

Since I don't live in Jersey, I'd rather a Corzine win and a Kean win than a Forrester win and a Corzine win.

I said the same thing before but look at it this way (as NixonNow pointed out)...

Forrester wins the Governorship and Corzine would obviously be weak in 2006. Kean could beat him. I do see where you're coming from though. It would be somewhat of a chance to take but I'm still hoping that Forrester will win.