WA: Rasmussen: Obama Leads WA by 10%

[Alcon]

Whoa, Washington is trending Republican?

In 2004, our Bush voters were second most likely in the country to identify as "conservative," behind Oregon.  We're a very polarized state.  Obama is slightly underperforming, but in a national blow-out, Washington is inevitably going to trend less than most states.

[Alcon]

I'm a little skeptical about that, honestly.  Our military population is very transitory, doesn't vote much, and Obams is doing better than Kerry.  Turnout may favor McCain a bit, but Fort Lewis and McChord aren't showing some GOP boom to me. I've been watching registrations there.

I still see Washington as being slightly more Dem than Oregon in this race, but the polls sure ain't agreeing with me.  [Shrug]

[Alcon]

I have some statistics about possibly military-affiliated registrations in the 28th district of Washington (which includes two military bases) to look at.  Nothing is probably going to get us a concrete answer, but that might help indicate a big surge in interest if there is one.

My inclination is that Bush was actually a better candidate for these people, but yours is a very reasonable hypothesis.