German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

INSA poll shows some recovery by CDU/CSU and a new low for Greens in 5 years

CDU/CSU    33.5 (+1.5)
SPD            21.0 (flat)
FDP              7.5 (+0.5)
AfD            13.5 (-1.5)
Linke          11.0 (flat)
Green           8.5 (-0.5)

Looks like there is no alternative to CDU/CSU-SPD although I guess in theory CDU/CSU-Green-FDP is possible.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if INSA shows a CDU recovery you can believe it.

they are using the yougov pool which is kind of small and bad balanced in germany and since those numbers would be ludicrous they are adding SPECIAL SAUCE, meaning they make the numbers look like whatever they thing is right.

on the bad side.....they are just running behind trends and don't really have real metrics behind their work....on the good side....they can push their numbers hard into the direction they think is reasonable ATM and hit closer to the goal than real polls would suggest.

[Middle-aged Europe]

INSA poll shows some recovery by CDU/CSU and a new low for Greens in 5 years

More like three years.

8% in an Emnid poll from January 19, 2014.

[rob in cal]

  So the German constitutional court rules against banning the NPD, as they are not a significant enough political threat to deserve banning. I would think this will hurt the AFD a little bit politically, as without the NPD on the ballot the AFD would likely have won the votes of a big chunk of potential NPD voters, not that we are talking about a big voter pool.

[Beezer]

Yeah, we're literally talking about half a pctage point here. With the AfD firmly established as a protest party from the right there is no reason to vote NPD anymore unless you're firmly committed to the cause. In which case a ban would probably make you stay home on election day.

BTW...is this pollster any good? Have they polled German politics in the past?

[palandio]

BTW...is this pollster any good? Have they polled German politics in the past?

They have only entered the field recently. According to their homepage they were second-best in the recent Berlin election which seems to be the one and only election where they have been tested so far.

Their approach ist quite interesting. The  raw data come from SpiegelOnline users who register, fill out some demographic questions and so on. And then all of these data get weighted with some secret sauce. So no traditional pollster who tries to get a representative sample of persons, but an innovative method that claims to work even with heavily non-representative raw data.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Their approach ist quite interesting. The  raw data come from SpiegelOnline users who register, fill out some demographic questions and so on. And then all of these data get weighted with some secret sauce. So no traditional pollster who tries to get a representative sample of persons, but an innovative method that claims to work even with heavily non-representative raw data.

oh dear

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But that's probably the future of the polling industry. Which means that polling failures will become increasingly frequent, needless to say.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Leading Alternative politican Björn Höcke, head of the fascist wing of the party, calls Holocaust memorial in Berlin a "monument of shame".


German nationalist calls for end to Nazi guilt
https://www.yahoo.com/news/german-nationalist-calls-end-nazi-guilt-224455947.html?ref=gs

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[palandio]

But that's probably the future of the polling industry. Which means that polling failures will become increasingly frequent, needless to say.

Traditional polling is facing strong challenges (cell-phone only, 95% non-responding, etc.), but at least in Germany they're still doing surprisingly well, maybe better than ever. (And US national polling was not that bad either, only Mid-Western polling was far off.) This proves that phone-interview based polling still is the gold standard.

Nonetheless I see methodological innovations as a positive, at least on an experimental level. Every pollster depends on secret sause and improving it is a must. Adjusting your methodology should lead to better results, not to more increasingly frequent polling failure. And if polling failures increase, then maybe it is because the environment has become more difficult and polling methodology hasn't kept pace.

The only problem is that the heavy use of secret sauce to add to your raw data is often difficult to distinguish from educated guessing (with the risk of herding effects) or - even worse - agenda-driven number magic (I'm looking at you, Forsa, but not only.) I understand your unease with renouncing representative samples. But I think we should at least give it a try, on the experimental level.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Leading Alternative politican Björn Höcke, head of the fascist wing of the party, calls Holocaust memorial in Berlin a "monument of shame".


German nationalist calls for end to Nazi guilt
https://www.yahoo.com/news/german-nationalist-calls-end-nazi-guilt-224455947.html?ref=gs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Höcke has always been a good national socialist.

[Bumaye]

The Green Party's primary is over. While Katrin Göring-Eckardt was already the designated winner since she was the only women running for the job her male counter part has been decided. It is the Green Party's chairmen Cem Özdemir - by a lead of 75 votes.  
  
The full results look like that:  
  
Özdemir: 35.96%
Habeck: 35.74%
Hofreiter: 26.19%

Göring-Eckhart: 70.63%  
  
This is especially interesting because both Göring-Eckhart and Özdemir are part of the so called "Realo" wing which is pretty centrist and generally seen as more open for a CDU-Green coalition. In today's Forsa Poll they would get 47% which would be just as much as the remaining meaningful parties combined.  
  
Özdemir by the way is an interesting guy. He was the very first German-Turkish MP in 1994 yet despite his heritage he was one of the main figures pushing for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide and is a strong critic of Erdogan. Erdogan in response called him a persona non grata. He supports an EU-Army, drug legalization, a slightly higher taxation of the rich and so on plus the typical green topics like feminism, LGBTQ rights, renewable energies, etc.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Green Party's primary is over. While Katrin Göring-Eckardt was already the designated winner since she was the only women running for the job her male counter part has been decided. It is the Green Party's chairmen Cem Özdemir - by a lead of 75 votes.  
  
The full results look like that:  
  
Özdemir: 35.96%
Habeck: 35.74%
Hofreiter: 26.19%

Göring-Eckhart: 70.63%  
  
This is especially interesting because both Göring-Eckhart and Özdemir are part of the so called "Realo" wing which is pretty centrist and generally seen as more open for a CDU-Green coalition. In today's Forsa Poll they would get 47% which would be just as much as the remaining meaningful parties combined.  
  
Özdemir by the way is an interesting guy. He was the very first German-Turkish MP in 1994 yet despite his heritage he was one of the main figures pushing for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide and is a strong critic of Erdogan. Erdogan in response called him a persona non grata. He supports an EU-Army, drug legalization, a slightly higher taxation of the rich and so on plus the typical green topics like feminism, LGBTQ rights, renewable energies, etc.

With Anton Hofreiter, there was only a single candidate from the party's Leftist wing running  and a particular weak one at that (probably the weakest of all four primary candidates). Hence his third place finish.

Ironically, the party had just recently passed a noticably Leftish platform during their federal congress last November. So, there's a majority which supports Left-wing positions, but the Left is somewhat leaderless and doesn't have any noteworthy representatives right now.

We'll see how this contradiction is reflected and/or solved in the election campaign.

Btw, voted for R. Habeck myself. But Özdemir would have been my second preference.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just recently found mister habeck....seems like a kind of outsider-part-realo-candidate, eh?

personally i am happy with KGE and öz.... they are well-known and able to communicate in a good way.

wouldn't have any problem with a strong leftwing-candidate like mister trittin but regarding the populariy of mister hofreiter and miss peter and the current opinion climate inside of germany, this result should be for the best.

[Klartext89]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-german, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

The political Left is anti-German. Openly (Linkspartei, Greens, SPD youth organisation) with "Germany must die" rhetoric or silently (SPD, Angela Merkel wing of CDU) with their policy (no need to eyplain, everyone knows what) or actions like taking the German flag off stage at their victory celebration.

In contrast to that, the AfD is not only patriotic but deep pro-German.

But I guess the "Germany" you mean hasn't much to do with being German ;-)

[Middle-aged Europe]

just recently found mister habeck....seems like a kind of outsider-part-realo-candidate, eh?

As the only primary candidate who's currently not holding office in the capital, Habeck kind of ran as the anti-establishment reform/protest candidate.

Interestingly, following yesterday's almost win he's now often mentioned as the new party chairman to succeed Özdemir this fall if Özdemir becomes either his party's group leader in the Bundestag or a cabinet member.

[JA]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-german, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

The political Left is anti-German. Openly (Linkspartei, Greens, SPD youth organisation) with "Germany must die" rhetoric or silently (SPD, Angela Merkel wing of CDU) with their policy (no need to eyplain, everyone knows what) or actions like taking the German flag off stage at their victory celebration.

In contrast to that, the AfD is not only patriotic but deep pro-German.

But I guess the "Germany" you mean hasn't much to do with being German ;-)

Ah, I forgot you can only be German by coming from a pure, Aryan sperm that developed inside a pure, Aryan uterus.

[Klartext89]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-german, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

The political Left is anti-German. Openly (Linkspartei, Greens, SPD youth organisation) with "Germany must die" rhetoric or silently (SPD, Angela Merkel wing of CDU) with their policy (no need to eyplain, everyone knows what) or actions like taking the German flag off stage at their victory celebration.

In contrast to that, the AfD is not only patriotic but deep pro-German.

But I guess the "Germany" you mean hasn't much to do with being German ;-)

Ah, I forgot you can only be German by coming from a pure, Aryan sperm that developed inside a pure, Aryan uterus.

At least you tried. Poor human being.

But don't worry, getting opposed by an Extremist like a "Democratic Socialist" (=ham eating vegetarian) is only showing that my position is mainstream ;-)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Fifteen percent is not mainstream, dumpkopf.

[Klartext89]

Fifteen percent is not mainstream, dumpkopf.

The policies are supported by estimated 70% - of Social Democrats and Christian Democrats voters ;-) Live with it, Hosenscheißer.

[palandio]

AfD logic at work: 70% support my policies, but are voting for evil left-wing anti-Germans. Makes sense.

Take it this way: 70% may hold a wide range of more or less critical opinions regarding 2015's immigration politics (I am one of them). But that doesn't mean that they support the AfD (I mean most of them don't even vote AfD...). And that's a good thing and the German progressives should be glad instead of telling people: "Then f**ing vote AfD already. We don't even want to be voted by people like you. You're enabling the far-right. You're as bad as them."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Take it this way: 70% may hold a wide range of more or less critical opinions regarding 2015's immigration politics (I am one of them). But that doesn't mean that they support the AfD (I mean most of them don't even vote AfD...). And that's a good thing and the German progressives should be glad instead of telling people: "Then f**ing vote AfD already. We don't even want to be voted by people like you. You're enabling the far-right. You're as bad as them."

If someone wants to vote for the AfD because "they're the only ones who have the interests of the common people at heart", I tell them that the AfD wants to cut pensions and privatize unemployment benefits. Works every single time. Bonus talking point for environmentally friendly people: Climate change denial and support for nuclear energy.

It's of course a strategic error to attack the AfD for their immigration and refugee policies alone. On the other hand, this doesn't mean that left-wing parties have to change their immigration policies at all. In my experience, as soon as you indicate that you might step back from your refugee policies a single inch, you have also people at your hands saying that they refuse vote for you any longer. That's the other side of the coin.

[palandio]

It's good when there is a choice between parties with different positions and that includes many Greens being supportive of very refugee-friendly policies.

There's no point in changing your positions if you don't really mean it. The important question is what is the best strategy to move the political debate and actual politics in your direction. Sadly parts of the right (Trump, Brexiteers) seem to have mastered that better than the left.

[JA]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-german, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

The political Left is anti-German. Openly (Linkspartei, Greens, SPD youth organisation) with "Germany must die" rhetoric or silently (SPD, Angela Merkel wing of CDU) with their policy (no need to eyplain, everyone knows what) or actions like taking the German flag off stage at their victory celebration.

In contrast to that, the AfD is not only patriotic but deep pro-German.

But I guess the "Germany" you mean hasn't much to do with being German ;-)

Ah, I forgot you can only be German by coming from a pure, Aryan sperm that developed inside a pure, Aryan uterus.

At least you tried. Poor human being.

But don't worry, getting opposed by an Extremist like a "Democratic Socialist" (=ham eating vegetarian) is only showing that my position is mainstream ;-)

Simply because the AfD has some positions that are supported by the majority does not make your particular views expressed here mainstream. One can both support limiting immigration and oppose your conception of what constitutes being German. Regardless of that, since when was the morality of a view determined by its popularity? Ridiculous...

[Bumaye]

Only four more months till the election in Germany's highest populated state: Nordrhein-Westfalen. A lot of people see it as the major test run for the election of the Bundestag in November so it's time to have a first look at the polls: 
 
Emnid 21.01.2017 (At the end is the change compared to the last election) 
 
SPD: 32% (-7,1%) 
CDU: 30% (+3,7%) 
Grüne: 10% (-1,3%) 
AfD: 10% (+10%) 
FDP: 8% (-0,6%) 
Linke 7% (+4,5%)
 
NRW is the natural habitat of the SPD besides the city states. 32% is just as bad as the worst result they ever had in the state - that was 1947.  Meanwhile Die Linke is benefiting a lot from that weakness of the SPD and could get their best result ever after 5,6% in 2010. As everywhere the AfD has joined the fray as well and has good chances to score a double digit result in the state that received the most refugees in the last couple of years though they don't get even close to their results in east Germany. On a side node the Pirateparty became a non-factor after getting 7,8% in the last election. 
 
If not a whole lot changes one thing is for sure: The Red-Green coalition will not be able to hold their majority. Because of that a LOT of possibilities exist. R2G, Red-Green-Yellow, Grand Coalition, Black-Green-Yellow.