Election models megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note that it's a 65)60 M vote not an 80)75 M vote so youth turnout is likely lower that's screwing the polls but Ds are still gonna outvote Rs by 5 M

We won OH Sen and KS GOV, in 2018 with fewer votes than 2020, that's why Ryan can win it's a midterm not a Prez Eday

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1584239922579324928

[MikeIrvine]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1584239922579324928

It feels weird that "Dems slightly overperform" the polls is totally off the table. Reason I say that is given the margins in the last couple of special elections. Yes, Dobbs isn't as close to the news as then...BUT the economy was objectively worse at that point compared to now, as well as a large part of the polling being wrong is that a segment who wasn't answering polls or otherwise politically active turned out. Think of it as a reverse Trump 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1584239922579324928

It feels weird that "Dems slightly overperform" the polls is totally off the table. Reason I say that is given the margins in the last couple of special elections. Yes, Dobbs isn't as close to the news as then...BUT the economy was objectively worse at that point compared to now, as well as a large part of the polling being wrong is that a segment who wasn't answering polls or otherwise politically active turned out. Think of it as a reverse Trump 2016.

Even relative to 2020, it seems like basically everyone is assuming Dems will underperform polling o some degree, even posters often considered “D hacks”

[Statilius the Epicurean]

What happens in this timeline?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What happens in this timeline?

Trump told all his followers to vote on November 9.

[Crumpets]

What happens in this timeline?

Nuclear exchange/meteorite impact/Yellowstone eruption the day before election day and only mail-in votes get counted everywhere since all the polling places are irradiated/in a crater/under 10' of ash.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 22).  The Economist models have been frozen since Oct. 16, but G. Elliott Morris said there will be more updates coming.


Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (not updated since Oct. 16)
538 Lite 66 (-3)
538 Classic 63 (-2)
JHK 59.2 (+0.6)
538 Deluxe 55 (-1)
DDHQ 52.3 (-3.6)


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 86.9 (+0.4)
538 Deluxe 81 (nc)
538 Classic 80 (nc)
DDHQ 78.5 (-0.6)
538 Lite 73 (nc)
Economist 65 (not updated since Oct. 16)

Continued movement (although at a slower rate) toward Republicans in the Senate, while the House was quite stable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 22):

AZ D+4.5 (-0.4)
CO D+8.8 (nc)
FL R+4.8 (+0.4)
GA D+3.0 (-0.7)
IA R+6.9 (nc) - added for OC
NH D+5.5 (-1.9)
NV R+0.1 (-0.1)
NC R+2.6 (+0.6)
OH R+1.7 (+0.
PA D+2.3 (-1.3)
UT R+7.8 (nc)
WI R+2.6 (-0.3)

Mostly small movements except in NH and PA, favoring R's more than D's.

[Sorenroy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

I haven't been feeling great about the direction the polls and models have been going recently, but with Walker's continued scandals, I wanted to see what at least 538's model would output if you called the race for Warnock in Georgia. A Warnock victory jumps Democratic chances in the Senate from 54% all the way up to 80%. Even if you lock in the "Solid R" seats of Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, and Missouri, Democratic chances remain at 75%. Still distressing that the modern Republican party would still have a 3-1 chance at taking the House, but much better than a coin flip for Senate control.

On the other end, should Walker pull it out and end up winning, Democrats fall to only a 29% chance to hold the Senate and single digits for the House. So there's that.

[soundchaser]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

I haven't been feeling great about the direction the polls and models have been going recently, but with Walker's continued scandals, I wanted to see what at least 538's model would output if you called the race for Warnock in Georgia. A Warnock victory jumps Democratic chances in the Senate from 54% all the way up to 80%. Even if you lock in the "Solid R" seats of Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, and Missouri, Democratic chances remain at 75%. Still distressing that the modern Republican party would still have a 3-1 chance at taking the House, but much better than a coin flip for Senate control.

On the other end, should Walker pull it out and end up winning, Democrats fall to only a 29% chance to hold the Senate and single digits for the House. So there's that.

This model's fun to play around with (and God knows I've done it myself a few times this cycle), but it assumes a much more connected national picture than it probably should. Walker losing because he's a seriously flawed candidate doesn't necessarily imply CCM or Fetterman winning in the way the model thinks.

[Ferguson97]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

I made the following calls

House

Democrat: AK-AL, MI-03, PA-08, VA-02

Republican: CA-22, CA-27, IA-03, OR-05, PA-07, RI-02, TX-15, TX-34

Uncalled: KS-03, NY-19, PA-17

House odds: 98 GOP / 2 Dem


Senate

Democrat: AZ, CO, GA, NH, WA

Republican: FL, IA, IN, LA, MO, NC, OH, WI

Uncalled: NV, PA

Senate odds: 76 Dem / 24 GOP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Either 53/46/1 D S OH, WI, PA flips, 52/48 D Senate WI, PA flips or 51/49 Senate PA and Ds win either GA or WI odds likely 52)48 S Net WI and PA 50% and 25% 53/46/1 and 10 51/49, 5% 51/50 D and 5% lose control 51/49 R SENATE


Likely 225/210RH and 52/48 D Senators Split control but can be 53/46/1 too, that's why Biden said he wants 53 Senators

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I know that 538's Pollster rating are subjective, but what does it mean when the ratings are outlined by dots instead of a solid line (e.g. Wick under the PA-SEN race).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know that 538's Pollster rating are subjective, but what does it mean when the ratings are outlined by dots instead of a solid line (e.g. Wick under the PA-SEN race).

Provisional rating because they don't have enough qualifying polls since the last time 538 did the full ratings calculation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models with change from last update (Oct. 26).  The Economist models have been frozen since Oct. 16, but G. Elliott Morris said there will be more updates coming.


Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (not updated since Oct. 16)
538 Lite 63 (-3)
538 Classic 61 (-2)
538 Deluxe 53 (-2)
JHK 51.2 (-8.0)
DDHQ 48.3 (-4.0)


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 88.4 (+1.5)
538 Deluxe 80 (-1)
538 Classic 80 (nc)
DDHQ 77.5 (-1.0)
538 Lite 71 (-2)
Economist 65 (not updated since Oct. 16)

Similar to the last update, continuing erosion for D chances in the Senate while the House remained mostly stable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 26):

AZ D+3.6 (-0.9)
CO D+10.8 (+2.0)
FL R+7.0 (+2.2)
GA D+1.2 (-1.8 )
IA R+7.1 (+0.2)
NH D+4.1 (-1.4)
NV D+0.4 (+0.5) - flipped back to D
NC R+2.6 (nc)
OH R+1.6 (-0.1)
PA D+1.0 (-1.3)
UT R+7.8 (nc)
WA D+7.6 (-0.3) - new to the list
WI R+3.4 (-0.8 )

A mixed bag with D leads in GA & PA getting uncomfortably tight, while they regained the lead in NV.  CO, FL, IA, UT, and WA are likely out of reach for the trailing candidate at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/UrsulaPerano/status/1586508454759260160

[2016]

CBS Poll this Morning showed a close Race for the House with R's leading D's 47-45.

However Republicans have a WHOPPING 16-PERCENTAGE POINT LEAD among Independent Voters. How are the Democrats going to offset that? It's virtually impossible.

BTW TS Clown Tom Bonior still thinks Democrats will hold the House 218-217 based on his Trash Model, LOL

[Ferguson97]

CBS Poll this Morning showed a close Race for the House with R's leading D's 47-45.

However Republicans have a WHOPPING 16-PERCENTAGE POINT LEAD among Independent Voters. How are the Democrats going to offset that? It's virtually impossible.

BTW TS Clown Tom Bonior still thinks Democrats will hold the House 218-217 based on his Trash Model, LOL

"I believe the crosstabs but not the topline" is an... interesting choice, to say the least.

[2016]

CBS Poll this Morning showed a close Race for the House with R's leading D's 47-45.

However Republicans have a WHOPPING 16-PERCENTAGE POINT LEAD among Independent Voters. How are the Democrats going to offset that? It's virtually impossible.

BTW TS Clown Tom Bonior still thinks Democrats will hold the House 218-217 based on his Trash Model, LOL

"I believe the crosstabs but not the topline" is an... interesting choice, to say the least.

If the DCCC is pumping money to save their Chair in New York Sean Patrick Maloney they are not winning the House. NADA. 0,0 % Chance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A few interesting tweets from G. Elliott Morris tonight:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1586800011148513281
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1586848750521155586

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SplitTicket_/status/1586749499350822913

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't really matter all that much Ds are trying to hold onto the S and limit their losses in the H and Biden and Harris will be back in the ballot in 224 both H of Congresd will be fought over in 24

That's why Ds say we can afford to lose the H but net gain Senate seats

It's the same blue wall map in 24 and Trump or DeSantis are gonna be Disadvantage in EC Map

[riceowl]

538 model has Walker and Laxalt favored, but still give the edge to Senate D's someone make it make sense