swing states 2008?

[Alcon]

SamSpade, social conservatism plays well in rural Oregon - enough to outvote Portland, perhaps, but it does not in Seattle. Frustratingly to rural Republicans in Washington, the more they like a candidate, the more Seattle hates it. And Seattle will then proceed to outvote them.



I think Washington and Oregon have solidified for the Democrats, and West Virginia for the Republicans. It depends on the candidate in Oregon, though.

Nevada and Colorado will become swing states (Nevada's already there)  because of increased population, especially Hispanic. I note Nevada because it is on its way to becoming an important swing state - not a huge one, but still an interesting one.

Iowa continues to trend Republican. I think it will become a Republican-leaning swing state eventually, but never a Republican stronghold in the near future. Minnesota I think hit its peak in 2000 and will remain slightly Democratic-leaning. Same with Wisconsin.

Michigan's social conservatism could come into play. Same goes for Pennsylvania. New Hampshire is trending Democratic, but not fast enough to make the "solid northeast." Maine's CD1 should remain steady. CD2 will be a toss-up as will, to a lesser extent, the statewide.

I think minority vote will help determine Florida. New Mexico is a case of a combination of the minority vote and whether areas of high Native American/Hispanic population and the big cities outvote the military areas and rural areas. However, looking at a county map, I can't see how Kerry lost New Mexico...so I don't know what to think there.

[Alcon]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

Being a Democrat in Montana probably means not wanting to abolish public schools.

Actually, Montana is a very Libertarian state from what I gather. They passed medical marijuana. They went for Clinton in 1992 albeit with insane amounts of help from Perot.

[Alcon]

I'm going to take things in a whole new direction.  I'm predicting some moderate changes in both parties in the next four years, and the departure of the most divisive President evar.  The 2008 Swing States:

2004/2008 Swing states:
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Washington

2008 New Swing States:
New Jersey
Connecticut
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
California
South Dakota

2004 Swing states that will turn solid Democrat:
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Michigan

2004 Swing states that will turn solid Republican:
Florida
Missouri
Colorado
Nevada

I think that covers them all...

Wow...South Dakota? What exactly is going to be happening here?

[Alcon]

1.  MI
2.  WI
3.  MN
4.  IA
5.  PA
6.  NM
7.  NV
8.  CO
9.  WV
10. OH

You think WV is going to be more of a battleground than OH? Really? Why?