State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

State Senator, District 17
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 34 %
PHYLLIS HATCHER (DEM)34.40%1,677
NELVA LEE (REP)1.27%62
BRIAN STRICKLAND (REP)61.97%3,021
ED TONEY (REP)2.36%115

State Representative, District 111
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 0 %
GEOFFREY CAUBLE (REP)48.60%865
LARRY K. MOREY (REP)14.27%254
TARJI LEONARD DUNN (DEM)31.24%556
EL-MAHDI HOLLY (DEM)5.90%105

[kph14]

34% is in in SD 17... looks like Strickland(R) has a very good chance to win that race tonight without a runoff

It's showing as 34% because 1 of 3 counties is complete.  But only 4 of 40 precincts in the district are complete.

Oh, my bad. So the Rockdale portion is complete. In 2016, the Democratic challenger got 46% there. This time 45%. I still don't think that this race is close to competitive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

34% is in in SD 17... looks like Strickland(R) has a very good chance to win that race tonight without a runoff

It's showing as 34% because 1 of 3 counties is complete.  But only 4 of 40 precincts in the district are complete.

Oh, my bad. So the Rockdale portion is complete. In 2016, the Democratic challenger got 46% there. This time 45%. I still don't think that this race is close to competitive.

I agree, it probably isn't.  I think the SoS website has some issues, though.  The precinct count jumped from 4 to 20, but the vote totals didn't change.

[kph14]

34% is in in SD 17... looks like Strickland(R) has a very good chance to win that race tonight without a runoff

It's showing as 34% because 1 of 3 counties is complete.  But only 4 of 40 precincts in the district are complete.

Oh, my bad. So the Rockdale portion is complete. In 2016, the Democratic challenger got 46% there. This time 45%. I still don't think that this race is close to competitive.

I agree, it probably isn't.  I think the SoS website has some issues, though.  The precinct count jumped from 4 to 20, but the vote totals didn't change.

HD-117 is now 6/13

[Nyvin]

Looks like the R's will win both.   The House district might go to runoff though.

[kph14]

Newton County now in for SD-17. I don't like the turnout pattern. Democrat is again slightly underperforming the 2016 result. Looks like the electorate is a bit more Republican than in 2016. That's not what we saw in many other special elections.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: STRICKLAND WINS

State Senator, District 17
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 67 %
PHYLLIS HATCHER (DEM)33.98%1,958
NELVA LEE (REP)1.16%67
BRIAN STRICKLAND (REP)62.51%3,602
ED TONEY (REP)2.34%135

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

State Senator, District 17
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 67 %
PHYLLIS HATCHER (DEM)33.63%2,080
NELVA LEE (REP)1.20%74
BRIAN STRICKLAND (REP)62.85%3,887
ED TONEY (REP)2.33%144

State Representative, District 111
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 0 %
GEOFFREY CAUBLE (REP)50.10%1,230
TARJI LEONARD DUNN (DEM)12.55%308
EL-MAHDI HOLLY (DEM)31.41%771
LARRY K. MOREY (REP)5.95%146

[LimoLiberal]

These results are looking horrendous for The Democrats.

This initial reaction was good.
Worst pair of special elections for Democrats in a long time.
On to the next one.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

State Senator, District 17
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 67 %
PHYLLIS HATCHER (DEM)34.28%2,686
NELVA LEE (REP)1.19%93
BRIAN STRICKLAND (REP)62.18%4,872
ED TONEY (REP)2.35%184

WULFRIC PROJECTION: CAUBLE WINS

(Only one precinct left)

State Representative, District 111
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 0 %
GEOFFREY CAUBLE (REP)51.04%1,864
TARJI LEONARD DUNN (DEM)12.35%451
EL-MAHDI HOLLY (DEM)30.72%1,122
LARRY K. MOREY (REP)5.89%215

[LimoLiberal]

Clinton's margin in SD-17 was -17. The Dem lost tonight by a margin of -28. 11 point underperformance.

Clinton's margin in HD-111 was 3. Combined democratic candidates lost to combined republican candidates by a margin of -14. 17 point underperformance.

Bad.

[Keep cool-idge]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

[LimoLiberal]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

Do not extrapolate the country from 9,060 votes in a January 9th special election in Georgia. Just don't.

[Virginiá]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

[Holmes]

Yes, there were underperformances last year too. One in Rhode Island and Republicans even picked up a seat in Massachusetts last year. Sometimes contrarian results happen when the national environment is leaning one way. Democrats actually gained seats in California in 2010. Democrats picked up the governor's mansion in Connecticut in 2010. Republicans flipped KS-02 in 2008 and Democrats flipped NE-02 and FL-02 in 2014. It happens.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

State Senator, District 17
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 100 %
PHYLLIS HATCHER (DEM)34.36%2,772
NELVA LEE (REP)1.19%96
BRIAN STRICKLAND (REP)61.99%5,001
ED TONEY (REP)2.45%198

State Representative, District 111
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Counties/Precincts Reporting  : 100 %
GEOFFREY CAUBLE (REP)51.04%1,864
TARJI LEONARD DUNN (DEM)12.35%451
EL-MAHDI HOLLY (DEM)30.72%1,122
LARRY K. MOREY (REP)5.89%215

[Dr. Arch]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

Correct. Let's not forget we now have a Democratic senator from ALABAMA.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You guys do realize that yesterday night was a very big event in the Atlanta area? There was a University of Georgia (my school) vs Alabama championship (We lost )

Who the hell gives a damn about an election the day after a huge football event lol

[Nyvin]

Was turnout really 7%??   Lol, that's horrible.

[krazen1211]

The GOP is doing a great job at winning these districts.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OUCH.

[smoltchanov]

The only probable conclusion, which can be made from all these specials: it's too early to predict with assurance. Most likely - there will NOT be a uniform "tide, which raises all ships": at least some Democratic candidates may perform well in "trumpist WWC" areas, and at least some Republican - in wealthy educated suburbs, which swung hard to Clinton in 2016. A lot will depend on particular candidates and their personal qualities, and presidential percentages in a district, while useful, are not all that must be taken into account. IMHO, relatively good predictions may be made not earlier then a month before Election day.

[Keep cool-idge]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains in the VA HD and picked up Alabama but the latter was because Moore was a muh candidate with lots of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So in my view the  only yuge warning is VA-HD.

[MAINEiac4434]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains an VA HD and picked up Alabama but the later was because Moore was a muh candidate with a lot of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So far the only yuge warning is VA-HD.

This reads like a Bulgarian bot programmed to post random English words.

[Keep cool-idge]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains an VA HD and picked up Alabama but the later was because Moore was a muh candidate with a lot of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So far the only yuge warning is VA-HD.

This reads like a Bulgarian bot programmed to post random English words.

Fixed