Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[TheGlobalizer]

I think McCain is closing ever-so-slightly.  Not enough to get excited about, though.

[J. J.]

Average of Rasmussen, Hotline, Gallup traditional, and IBD is McCain %+0.2825 today.  How are you viewing this, honestly?

Honestly, I look at LV on Gallup and I pay very close attention to the 'bots.  If they were to drop and Gallup, IBD and possible ABC would drop or hold, I'd say McCain was closing.

I do think Obama's lead in PA may be eroding, though not collapsing. 

Lunar is excluding Gallup-Expanded, and only including those you indicated, including a M+2 on Gallup-Traditional that may simply be rounding.  Seems a bit leap to "I'd say McCain was closing" from McCain +0.28% in one day -- especially since we have no reason to exclude Rasmussen.  Heck, if you excluded Gallup-Traditional, the average would be moving toward Obama.

If it weren't for Gallup-Traditional, would you say that Obama is expanding his lead?

Alcon, if the polling was showing across the board increases for Obama, I'd say it.  

 I really give a great of weight to to Rasmussen, Gallup (traditional after reading Sam's comments), and TIPP.  After those ABC/WP and Hotline.  The lessers are GB, R2K, and Zogby.

Of the top three, two show gains for McCain; the third one unchanged.  The second tier is split Obama and no poll.  The two third tier two show a McCain gain, and one no poll.

Is the numbers were reversed, I could not Obama was gaining.  I cannot say McCain is gaining today.

[Alcon]

First of all, Rasmussen is not unchanged.

Second of all, regardless of where those individual polls are going, the composite change is probably less than 0.5% (is it not?).  Yesterday, based on those same standards, I believe Obama had a composite gain of less than 0.5%.

Yes, if you ignored Rasmussen and assumed that any composite change is probably significant, then sure we'd have a change -- but "ignoring Rasmussen" is a laughably random caveat.  Can you prove that your "trend" reaches statistical significance at the 50% confidence level?

[J. J.]

First of all, Rasmussen is not unchanged.

Second of all, regardless of where those individual polls are going, the composite change is probably less than 0.5% (is it not?).  Yesterday, based on those same standards, I believe Obama had a composite gain of less than 0.5%.

Yes, if you ignored Rasmussen and assumed that any composite change is probably significant, then sure we'd have a change -- but "ignoring Rasmussen" is a laughably random caveat.  Can you prove that your "trend" reaches statistical significance at the 50% confidence level?

Alcon, my point is, I'm not "ignoring" Rasmussen.  If the 'bot was not working yesterday, or Scott Rasmussen decided to become a marine biologist, I'd say that there was a trend for McCain.  Rasmussen in a pollster and the 'bots were working.  I'm calling the results mixed and not showing a trend, because of Rasmussen.  (If I did the math right, subtracting Rasmussen and BG (which hasn't polled for two days), I come up with a +1.5 McCain.)

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY MONDAY: Obama 49.9%; 45.1%... Developing...

[Reds4]

For what it is worth Drudge has a headline saying zogby will show Obama 49.9% McCain 45.1%. That would move McCain up by 1 point from yesterday and Obama up by 0.5% as well.

[Reds4]

Haha, looks like you beat me to it Mr. Zogby...

ZOGBY MONDAY: Obama 49.9%; 45.1%... Developing...

[Democratic Hawk]

For what it is worth Drudge has a headline saying zogby will show Obama 49.9% McCain 45.1%. That would move McCain up by 1 point from yesterday and Obama up by 0.5% as well.

In other words, no change. Still a 5-point lead for Obama

Dave

[Alcon]

For what it is worth Drudge has a headline saying zogby will show Obama 49.9% McCain 45.1%. That would move McCain up by 1 point from yesterday and Obama up by 0.5% as well.

In other words, no change. Still a 5-point lead for Obama

Dave

Well, +0.5 in margin for McCain...

[cinyc]

For what it is worth Drudge has a headline saying zogby will show Obama 49.9% McCain 45.1%. That would move McCain up by 1 point from yesterday and Obama up by 0.5% as well.

In other words, no change. Still a 5-point lead for Obama

Dave

Well, +0.5 in margin for McCain...

That depends on whether polling media whore Zogby is teasing the "Monday" one-day sample (which would be about O+2 from the "Sunday" one-day sample, where Obama was supposedly leading by 3 - and yes, that's off by a day, but it's Zobgy) or his three-day average (M+0.5).  It's not clear.

[Reds4]

It looks as if Zogby will be releasing state polls starting tonight at 1 am as well.. these ought to give us a nice laugh.

[cinyc]

It looks as if Zogby will be releasing state polls starting tonight at 1 am as well.. these ought to give us a nice laugh.

Telephone (ha! ha!) or Interactive (ha! ha! ha! ha! ha! ha! ha! ha! ha!)?

[Reds4]

Telephone this time it looks like

[J. J.]

Any real pollsters have any state polls for PA?

[Tender Branson]

Zogby/Reuters/C-Span - Monday, October 27:

Obama 49.9 (+0.5)
McCain 45.1 (+1.0)

Research2000/DailyKos - Monday, October 27:

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 42 (+2)

[Democratic Hawk]

Research2000/DailyKos - Monday, October 27:

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 42 (+2)

McCain had a good day, yesterday, polling 44% to Obama's 49%

[J. J.]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

[Kalimantan]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

You're not allowed to talk about R2K given your previous disparaging of the poll.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

That particular tracking poll pointed to a neck-and-neck race between Obama and McCain when it began tracking. McCain is back to the point he was a week ago

Dave

[J. J.]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

That particular tracking poll pointed to a neck-and-neck race between Obama and McCain when it began tracking. McCain is back to the point he was a week ago

Dave

It currently over weighted to the Democrats.  I'd be worried about the moves there (BG is the converse).

Let me put it this way:  If someone from Tripoli, Libya says there is heavy rain, I might not consider the rain heavy.  If someone from London, UK, tells me there is heavy rain, it's probably heavy rain. 

I really would like to see if there is any movement of TIPP and Gallup.

[Sam Spade]

Battleground - 10/26
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/26
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 42% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 27, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.9%	45.1%	O+4.8%	M+0.5%	Nothing terribly surprising here
Rasmussen	50.58%	45.96%	O+4.62%	M+3.84%	Massive McCain sample jumped on.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	50%	42%	O+8%	NC	Looks to me like a good Obama sample replaced a good Obama sample.
R2000/DKos	50%	42%	O+8%	M+3%	Best McCain sample here in quite a while.
Gallup
Expanded	53%	43%	O+10%	O+1%	Not much going on here as far as I can tell.
Traditional	50%	45%	O+5%	NC
IBD/TIPP	47.0%	44.2%	O+2.8%	M+0.4%	Appears to be steady movement away from the undecideds, with McCain generally benefitting.
ABC/WP	52%	45%	O+7%	NC	Nothing much here.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.00%	44.28%	O+5.72%	M+0.89%	Generally, there appears to be more movement towards McCain.

[J. J.]

Gallup and TIPP will show if there is any real movement.  Sam, your summaries are excellent as usual.

[Lief 🗽]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

[Lunar]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

So now you start looking at R2k as if it has value?  Because I tried to include it in my daily update just for that reason (trends) and you forced me to stop by aggravating me about it every day.  I think that's highly hypocritical and if R2K showed a trend in the opposite direction, you wouldn't give it the time of day.