GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Mr. Smith]

So for people saying Ossoff loses support in the runoff, are you saying some of his voters will switch to Handel or that his voters won't all turn up whereas Republicans will have more consistent turnout and all vote for her?

Think what happened to Wyche Fowler against Cloverdell. Whatever the exact reason there is likely the exact reason again.

[Mr. Smith]

Progressives need to focus on preventing Northam from winning in VA, these house races are unwinnable.

They can walk and chew gum at the same time.

If this were true, 2016 would've ended with The Midwest margins for Clinton mirroring Trump's in The Sun Belt and The Sun Belt margins for Clinton would've looked like Trump's Midwest numbers.

[Mr. Smith]

Getting 48% in the primary is a very encouriging sign.

To concern trolls: remember that the republicans won this district 61-38 last year. The fact that the Democrats got 48% in an R+8 district is a good sign.

There's 2 months left and plenty of time for Handel to coalition-build. 48% in a mere run-off won't matter so much if it all becomes a blowout come the big one.

[Mr. Smith]

I got a bad feeling Ossoff might be falling behind. You check social media or any news related to him these days an it's all negative getting attacked over not living in the district, a local paper is calling him a "child of privilege", "trying to buy the seat with Hollywoid Soros money". Etc

This is what always happens when the dominant party starts losing its grip on power. It begins freakout stage.

This isn't the dominant party. Hasn't been so since Trump won.

If anything, it's more like a Shaggy Dog story in which the dominant party isn't dethroned as hoped despite a moment of weakness.

[Mr. Smith]

Ossoff seeking to appeal to Republican voters: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrat-ossoff-hunts-for-republican-votes-6th-district-runoff/Thf08C6tvcKnyj04v5rvVK/

RIP Ossoff.

[Mr. Smith]

I've seen Republicans have 9 lives too many times to for me to say Ossoff is favored. Still Tilt R unless Handel is completely collapsing.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be really close (<0.5). I mean, based on the results of the first round, Ossoff was the favorite and Trump has become even more unpopular now.

The GOP just has a way of always doing better than expected, and they have a tight leash on the one demographic that will cut off their arms to vote.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be really close (<0.5). I mean, based on the results of the first round, Ossoff was the favorite and Trump has become even more unpopular now.

The GOP just has a way of always doing better than expected, and they have a tight leash on the one demographic that will cut off their arms to vote.

By which you surely mean that the GOP generally runs better campaigns.

I don't think Trump, Thom Tillis, Roy Blunt, Richard Burr, Matt Bevin or Pat Toomey really ran better campaigns than their counterparts...didn't stop 'em from winning. I don't think Handel's running better than Ossoff now.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be really close (<0.5). I mean, based on the results of the first round, Ossoff was the favorite and Trump has become even more unpopular now.

The GOP just has a way of always doing better than expected, and they have a tight leash on the one demographic that will cut off their arms to vote.

Except they tend to do worse than expected in democratic waves - few people expected Dems to get the Senate in '06, few people expected Obama to win IN and NC in '08, few people expected Dems to gain 2 senate seats in '12. We definitely seem to be in a potential D wave situation with these specials.

Obama was supposed to flip Missouri and take Montana and the Dakotas, and make Arizona as close as Hillary got it. Anyone else before '08 would've gotten a double digit victory under the circumstances.

'12 was a rare exception.

[Mr. Smith]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

This'll probably work.

What do y'all make of this?

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It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Well, before you start screaming Armageddon, we don't know how big that subsample even is

I've been saying from day one that Ossoff isn't going to win, or even receive more than he did in the first round. Georgia's runoff elections are fairly predictable.

It'll probably be close though.

Nonetheless, this money all could've gone to Kansas or Montana.

[Mr. Smith]

Not believing it 'til it happens for Ossoff.

For now, this just means he loses by a half percentage. Too much damn money on the other hand and fans already have decided who won.

[Mr. Smith]

Well, you can bet that Republicans are not going to run Handel against Ossoff again next year if he wins the runoff.

Which is probably good for Ossoff as IIRC the other primary candidates were particularly whackadoodle extreme, and Handel was considered the "moderate electable" one.

Whoever thought Handel was electable clearly knew nothing about her.

Just remember, Trump wasn't supposed to be electable either.

Ok. And Handel is a true and tested loser.

So was Senator John Kennedy, oh and Changing Charlie too.

[Mr. Smith]

Always knew this was a nail biter. People were getting way too cocky with the polls. Still calling this for  Handel.

[Mr. Smith]

not lookin' good.

[Mr. Smith]

Ossoff has ran a great campaign and was a very good candidate. Regardless of how this race turns out or your political views you have to admit that.

No, he's a prop-up if he loses. A prop-up who ate money that could've gone to TWO districts that were competitive, one of which had a +20 edge against and moved left by 14!

A handsome looking one, but still a prop-up.

[Mr. Smith]

Ossoff has ran a great campaign and was a very good candidate. Regardless of how this race turns out or your political views you have to admit that.

No, he's a prop-up if he loses. A prop-up who ate money that could've gone to TWO districts that were competitive, one of which had a +20 edge against and moved left by 14!

A handsome looking one, but still a prop-up.

KS-4 and MT-AL probably weren't going to flip with extra money.

Could've been closer. And made for a broader appeal. Better three  very close districts as a warning sign and then going all out the next year on making the point, then two Sestak'd and one still lost by a razor-thin margin and thereby giving the party an appearance of being seriously split.

[Mr. Smith]

Ossoff has ran a great campaign and was a very good candidate. Regardless of how this race turns out or your political views you have to admit that.

No, he's a prop-up if he loses. A prop-up who ate money that could've gone to TWO districts that were competitive, one of which had a +20 edge against and moved left by 14!

A handsome looking one, but still a prop-up.

KS-4 and MT-AL probably weren't going to flip with extra money.

Could've been closer. And made for a broader appeal. Better three  very close districts as a warning sign and then going all out the next year on making the point, then two Sestak'd and one still lost by a razor-thin margin and thereby giving the party an appearance of being seriously split.

Could have been closer is not the same thing as actually winning. Putting money into seats that actually trended further to the right just to prove a point is not a sound investment.

I do wish the GOP had this attitude in '09/'10, there'd be no Scott Brown to stop the Public Option, and there wouldn't have been that YUGE 63 seat flip.