Which Republican candidates could become difficult to dislodge if elected?

[wesmoorenerd]

Do any of this year's candidates have the chops to become the next Brian Fitzpatrick? A couple of ideas:

Tom Barrett (MI-07)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)
Barbara Kirkmeyer (CO-08)
Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Zach Nunn (IA-03)

[MATTROSE94]

Do any of this year's candidates have the chops to become the next Brian Fitzpatrick? A couple of ideas:

Tom Barrett (MI-07)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)
Barbara Kirkmeyer (CO-08)
Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Zach Nunn (IA-03)

I agree. I would also add Allan Fung, Mayra Flores, Monica De La Cruz, Bruce Poliquin, Adam Laxalt, and Chuck Morse to this list as well.

[coloradocowboi]

Poliquin has been dislodged before. And Kirkmeyer represents Weld County in an Adams County dominated district.

I think few will be entrenched because the better candidates are running in bluer districts. The only ones I see remaining a long time (potentially) if they get elected are Molinaro and some of the Florida reps in marginal seats that will be competitive later in the decade, eg Luna. The rest are either too rightwing or in seats that are too marginal. Fung, for instance, would almost certainly not survive a blue wave election, or even a regular presidential year.

[Spectator]

Do any of this year's candidates have the chops to become the next Brian Fitzpatrick? A couple of ideas:

Tom Barrett (MI-07)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)
Barbara Kirkmeyer (CO-08)
Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Zach Nunn (IA-03)

All would probably lose in a blue midterm.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Definitely Kean (outran Biden by like 10 points in the old district which now is narrowly Dem won) and potentially some rural tossup districts (IA-03, MI-07/08, etc) that tend to stick with their incumbents... I actually think Kean outlasts Fitzpatrick who goes down in 2026 at the earliest whereas Kean has a lot more breathing room just BC of the makeup of his district

[Meatball Ron]

I agree. I would also add Allan Fung, Mayra Flores, Monica De La Cruz, Bruce Poliquin, Adam Laxalt, and Chuck Morse to this list as well.

At this point you are just listing Republicans running in purple or light blue districts, without any sort of reasonable justification as it relates to the specific question being asked.

• Fung would go down in the next blue or even neutral year. He is not some unbeatable titan. See RI-Gov 2014 and (especially) 2018
• Laxalt obviously would not be DOA, but not sure what makes you think he'd be uniquely difficult to dislodge in a blue or neutral environment. He does not have a track record of outrunning other Republicans. Again, see previous elections like 2018 (and 2014, where he won by the smallest margin of any GOP statewide candidate in NV)
• Chuck Morse is basically Generic R, not sure what makes you think he'd be uniquely popular or positioned to outrun the top of the ticket. Would lose in a blue year and be in a very tight race in a neutral year (similar to Ayotte)
• Putting Poliquin on this list doesn't even make sense because it's a red district and the question is asking about who'd be the next Fitzpatrick (e.g., consistently outruns the top of the ticket / wins reelection in not super favorable territory). But I would point to his 2018 loss as a counter-point. He'd be difficult to dislodge because of the district's lean, not his own caliber

Examples like Kean, Kirkmeyer, Molinaro, etc. as suggested by previous posters actually make sense because they have a history of over-performing their district lean.

[Tekken_Guy]

Do any of this year's candidates have the chops to become the next Brian Fitzpatrick? A couple of ideas:

Tom Barrett (MI-07)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)
Barbara Kirkmeyer (CO-08)
Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Zach Nunn (IA-03)

I think they're all strong enough to make it past 2024, but given that Fitzpatrick himself barely survived 2018 all of them would be in big trouble in 2026 under a Republican president (especially Trump). Even Fitzpatrick himself may finally go down, as may other overperformers like Young Kim and Don Bacon.

I agree. I would also add Allan Fung, Mayra Flores, Monica De La Cruz, Bruce Poliquin, Adam Laxalt, and Chuck Morse to this list as well.

I disagree on these. If Fung actually wins in 2022 he's likely gone in 2024. I doubt TX-34 is red enough yet for Flores to win in anything but a red wave. Poliquin may still be an underperformer given Maine's idiosyncracies. De La Cruz may still be ousted in a blue wave. Can't speculate on Laxalt and Morse given 2028 is far away.

[Senator Incitatus]

I actually agree with Fung. For a number of reasons, New England rarely votes out incumbents of any party.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I actually agree with Fung. For a number of reasons, New England rarely votes out incumbents of any party.

There's a ton of Biden seats where if Rs win in New England they could probably hold even in a better year for Dems (CT-02, CT-05, NY-18, NY-19, NH-01, ect). I've always wondered by New England specifically always seems to be quite favorable to incumbents. Perhaps it has to do with the culture, specifically in a lot of these well-off communities of just re-electing folks unless they've actually done something offensive rather than just being angry.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I disagree with Barrett. His district is quite polarized. While I think Molinaro would be a solid incumbent who would tend to outperform the top of the ticket, I also think he's a bit overrated.

In Kirkmeyer's district is really depends upon if Dems nominate a Hispanic candidate or not. A lot of Hispanics vote for the incumbent but more importantly vote for someone with a Hispanic last name.

Some of it too will depend upon how these folks define their congressional career. If they become too polarizing, it would make them much easier to dislodge than even just the optics of a mjoderate hero liek Fritz.

[Senator Incitatus]

I actually agree with Fung. For a number of reasons, New England rarely votes out incumbents of any party.

There's a ton of Biden seats where if Rs win in New England they could probably hold even in a better year for Dems (CT-02, CT-05, NY-18, NY-19, NH-01, ect). I've always wondered by New England specifically always seems to be quite favorable to incumbents. Perhaps it has to do with the culture, specifically in a lot of these well-off communities of just re-electing folks unless they've actually done something offensive rather than just being angry.

It's a cultural thing that stems from and is also fueled by the strong ticket-splitting. People in New England are hyperpoliticized (not to be confused with hyperpartisan) and are just generally very aware of who their representatives are. Candidates who run toward the middle have a large base because the population is already politically engaged, whereas in other regions candidates have to "fire up the base" to win. There are a few other structural reasons (late/open primaries, state conventions), but I think voter information is the big one.

For the same reasons, I expect Golden to outrun the fundamentals.

[Spectator]

For the people citing Northeast seats, might I point out to the graveyard of incumbents in both parties in places like upstate NY when the midterm tides are against their party? Molinaro or Kean would never be favored in a blue midterm lol

[Schiff for Senate]

Do any of this year's candidates have the chops to become the next Brian Fitzpatrick? A couple of ideas:

Tom Barrett (MI-07)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)
Barbara Kirkmeyer (CO-08)
Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Zach Nunn (IA-03)

Out of these, only getting those vibes from Kean, and even he might be tossed out in a blue wave or in a primary. Of course, I don't know most of these candidates well, but still. Politics is quite polarised and I think all could fall in a blue wave. If any can survive it, though, probably Kean. He seems to be exactly the kind of moderate, pragmatic, my-type Republican NJ voters just love electing to Congress.

[Schiff for Senate]

Do any of this year's candidates have the chops to become the next Brian Fitzpatrick? A couple of ideas:

Tom Barrett (MI-07)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)
Barbara Kirkmeyer (CO-08)
Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Zach Nunn (IA-03)

I agree. I would also add Allan Fung, Mayra Flores, Monica De La Cruz, Bruce Poliquin, Adam Laxalt, and Chuck Morse to this list as well.

I know you're a troll but surely you can do better. Poliquin represented a double-digit Trump 2016 district and he still lost his reelection bid in 2018. Even if he does end up getting elected and surviving blue waves, that to me would speak much more to how red the district has become than to how strong a candidate he is. After all, once again -  he foundered as incumbent in 2018 in a district that supported Trump comfortably in 2016 and in 2020.