Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

Tokyo will have its gubernatorial election in July which Koike is expected to win.
Given the situation within the LDP is very possible that new leadership will be brought in at some stage and the new LDP PM will need a snap election in 2024 to acquire the mandate and credibility within the LDP party to rule.

[jaichind]

Japan has had a terrible start to 2024

First,  the old Japanese nemesis of earthquakes in Western Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/01/02/japan/noto-peninsula-quake-damage/

"Dozens killed as Japan assesses damage from massive quake"


Then airplane on fire at Haneda airport today

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240102_302/

"JAL airliner catches fire at Haneda Airport after possible collision"

[jaichind]

Kishida's fall in popular support tends to be concentrated in the youth and middle-aged voters and less so older voters

Aged 40-50 approval/disapproval


Age 70+ approval/disapproval

[jaichind]

JAP Airplane plane on fire

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval average curve is now below the critical 20%.  Good news for him is disapproval also fell a bit so there are some room to recover and get above 20% again.

[jaichind]

First big election of the year is Feb 4th Kyodo mayor election

Likely candidates for open seat Mayor of Kyodo election in early Feb.

LDP-KP-CDP establishment anti-JCP consensus candidate
LDP rebel faction candidate
JRP-DPP-ARFE-KYP candidate (KYP is a local Third pole party)
JCP-RS candidate



Back in 2020, it was

LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-SDP anti-JCP consensus incumbent candidate       45.1%
JCP-RS                                                                                        34.6%
KYP (de facto backed by JRP)                                                        20.3%

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6487476

Former LDP PM Suga recommends disbanding all factions as a way out of this crisis.  Of course, this is convenient for him since he is not part of any faction, and his "group" is much smaller than all the other factions.

[jaichind]

Kishida's personal approval was the lowest of all polled leaders at 13%.  Japanese PM's personal ratings are always low.  The Kishida cabinet approval rating will be higher (high 20s or low 30s)

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240106-OYT1T50000/

Former LDP PM Aso continues to support the concept of factions within the LDP.   That also makes sense since the Abe faction's implosion means his faction will become the largest and most powerful faction.

[jaichind]

The latest Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval and party support numbers shows Kishida approval numbers stabilizing a bit at a very low level and the LDP recovering a bit from the hit from the funding scandal.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-11/japan-prime-minister-kishida-launches-reform-panel-in-bid-to-restore-support

"Japan Prime Minister Kishida Launches Reform Panel in Bid to Restore Support"

[jaichind]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240111/k10014317801000.html

NHK reports that prosecutors are looking to arrest accountants responsible for the Abe and Nikai faction fundraising expense reports.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240112-HT7NXQVSRNJSBOF4H7WB6YZRKA/

Pro-JRP DPP splinter ARFE will caucus with JRP.  Perhaps this is a prelude to merging ARFE with JRP

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240112/k00/00m/010/073000c

Mainichi reports that several Abe faction members had separate bank accounts to pool excess fundraising party revenue without informing the faction, separate from kickbacks received from money members deposited into faction bank accounts.   

Again, we are talking about around $4-$5 million when you add all of them up.  Chump change in the USA or even India politics.

[jaichind]

Talk of reform within LDP is able to push Kishida approval/disapproval and LDP support back up a bit

[jaichind]

The latest PR vote polling averages.


PR vote average (change from 3 weeks ago)
LDP     28.2 (+3.1)
KP        4.7 (----)
DIY       1.7 (-0.1)
PNHK    0.1 (-0.2)
JRP      14.2 (+0.7)
ARFE     0.0 (-0.3)      (new Kinki-based pro-JRP DPP splinter)
DPP      3.5 (+0.3)
CDP    11.6 (-0.7)
RS        4.6 (-0.2)
SDP      0.7 (-0.3)
JCP       4.1 (-0.7)

LDP gains from mostly everyone and undecided as part of the LDP bounceback on LDP internal reform discussions.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/20240116-OYT1T50003/

Yomiuri reports that the seven senior Abe faction members will not be indicted over their alleged involvement in the slush fund scandal.   It seems that the accountants will take the fall.

[jaichind]

https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/643311

LDP meeting on party reform.  Around 50/50 split on abolishing vs maintaining factions.  Some proposed abolishing just the Abe faction as compromise. 

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240115-OYT1T50304/

Yomiuri reports suggests that Kishida wants former PM Aso close to himelf since there is a likely chance that Trump will return to power next year and Aso is close to Trump.

[jaichind]

三浦博史(Miura Hiroshi) projection for the Lower House election if held right now.  He seems to have LDP and KP  winning most tossups based on a LDP recovery from the most recent scandals

          District     PR     Total
LDP      180        62      242
KP           8        20        28
DIY                     1         1
JRP       19         33       52
ARFE      1          1          2
DPP        4          8        12
CDP      69        35      104
RS          0          6         6
SDP       1           0         1
JCP        1         10       11
Ind.       6                     6 (one pro-LDP 5 anti-LDP)

Under this projection, JRP underperforms in Osaka and Hyogo where KP retains 2 out of 4 Osaka and 1 out of 2 Hyogo seats and JRP only gains one extra Hyogo seat.  In LDP-CDP battlegrounds LDP gains the edge.  PR mostly along conventional wisdom.

[jaichind]

Cartoon on various LDP kingpins trying to make it up the mountain which is winning the Sept LDP Prez race.  Kishida still seems a bit ahead.  Abe faction key leaders are out due to the funding scandal and are on the ground.

[jaichind]

NHK says Kishida is considering disbanding hia faction.

[jaichind]

Looks like all LDP factions will disband. Exception for now is the Aso faction. 

[jaichind]

This reminds me of ROC's DPP abolishing all factions back in 2006.  There were a bunch of scandals around party elections within the DPP which involved DPP factions signing up bogus party members.  As a result in 2006 DPP "abolished" all DPP factions.  What it functionally meant is that faction offices and organizations were abolished.  Then it turned out that even without those things DPP factions continue to exist but just without formal organisations.

I suspect LDP factions being "abolished" will be the same thing.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/civic_rights/status/1748323907936108946