Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

[Lumine]

I think this subject was talked about in the thread about the 2012 elections in Chile, and there was a lot of speculation about the possibility of Michelle Bachelet coming back to run for a second term. She announced her decision to run about five minutes ago (sadly for me), so that leaves a very interesting field for the June Primaries and the General Election in November-December:

Concertacion: (Centre-left)

Michelle Bachelet (PS-PPD): Former President, quite empathic a with a decent charisma.
Jose Antonio Gomez: (PRSD): Senator, he ran and lost the 2009 Primaries against former President and Senator Eduardo Frei.
Claudio Orrego: (DC): Former Mayor, young, enthusiastic and belonging the conservative wing of his party.
Andres Velasco: (Independent) Former Minister, intelligent, independent.

Progressive Party/PRO: (Centre-Left)

Marco Enriquez-Ominami: Former Deputy, got an impressive showing in the 2009 election (about 20% of the vote), but he's weak now due to his party being a failure (5% of the votes).

Partido Igualdad: (¿Left?)

Roxana Miranda: She's kind of a "social activist" that nobody knows.

Humanist Party: (Left)

Claude Marcel: Economist and social activist, quite reasonable and fairly interesting.

Coalicion por el Cambio: (Centre-right)

Andres Allamand (RN): Former Minister and Senator, one of the founders of RN, my personal choice.
Laurence Golborne (Independent, but backed by the UDI): Former Minister, popular, the "Right Wing Bachelet".

Independents:

Franco Parisi: Popular TV Economist, he has about 5.000 signatures to go as an independent in the First Round (he needs 40.000 signatures, or 20.000 if he has the support of a Party).
Tomas Jocelyn-Holt: A former deputy, he got kicked out of the party that was supporting him, he has no chance at all to qualify.

Parties without a Candidate:

Partido Regionalista Independiente (PRI): Not likely to raise their own candidate, preference unknown.
Partido Liberal de Chile: Abandoned Jocelyn-Holt, preference unknown.
Partido Comunista (PC): They might back Bachelet, otherwise they'll go with Marcel or an important party leader.
Ecologist Party (PE): I really don't know but I suppose they could also back Marcel.
Movimiento Amplio Social (MAS): Perhaps Senator Alejandro Navarro (the founder), perhaps Ominami.

If anybody is interested about more info on Chilean politics or the developments of the campaign (I will be able to vote in the Primaries and the General Election, and I'll be collaborating with the Renovacion Nacional Youth for the Allamand Campaign), please ask. Despite the fact that it's difficult to find information about past campaigns (even here), I've discovered that politics here can be quite interesting (or bizarre, depending on the election).

[Lumine]

Wasn't Bachelet wildly popular (something like >70% approval) when she left office? Seems as if she would have to be a shoo-in for reelection.

Well, she's personally popular and liked, but her coalition is not (due to several things, like corruption scandals). I believe current polling has her between 40-45% in the first round, and she has been silent so far. If she runs a good campaign she could win the first round with more than 50%, but I suspect she will start to suffer some blows now that she's an official target for the rest of the field. She's the definite favourite for the second round, but I personally think she's not invincible.

[Lumine]

I think her running became obvious the day she resigned her UN office and returned to Chile for "personal reasons", a few weeks ago.

You're right, but even if there was no chance that she didn't run, the announcement signals the beginning of the really important part of the race, and her opponents will have to start to fight from now on.

[Lumine]

Hopefully she can kick the butt of whatever piece of sh*t the Chilean right will end up running.

While a conservative would be my first choice, I certainly wouldn't mind a second Bachelet term.

I'm voting Velasco with both hands ! ^^

To be fair, the Concertacion candidates are quite good (Both Velasco and Orrego would make good Presidents), but I believe the worst candidates are precisely the two more popular: Bachelet and Golborne. Golborne is backed by the UDI, and they are way too populist and right-wing to be allowed to control the Presidency (Piñera is RN, after all). Bachelet is a decent person, but she is surrounded by a camarilla of people that (I believe) should not be allowed back in government, like Yasna Provoste (Former Minister of Education, ousted by Congress).

Wueno... Y no hay una candidatura de Camila Vallejo porque po?

Well, I could see her running once she has the required age, but until that I expect her to be in Congress (she has a good shot at getting elected, despite the fact that the PC has problems to break 5%).

[Lumine]

I like and admire Bachelet at a personal level, though I'd be pleased with someone like Andrés Velasco. Probably Lumine's point about Bachelet's camarilla makes sense, given that other great leaders around the world, such as Nelson Mandela or Lula, have been surrounded by cliques. Apparently it's a common thing among great personalities, though I don't think that Bachelet's clique may be worse than Lula's, not to mention people surrounding Mandela.

Hope that you cover the primaries and related stuff, Lumine. By the way, there will be Legislative elections in Argentina on October or November, preceded by primary elections in August. I have maps and stuff, but I'm not sure if I comprehend politics in that country

Well, being objective, her clique would not really destroy or harm the country, but we would have several corruption scandals, and that's the last thing we need right now. In regards to Argentina... I must admit that I know almost nothing about politics there (expect perhaps some knowledge of Peron and the belief that the Malvinas should be called Falklands), so I think I'll try to read a few books about it. With so many important things going on in the continent, I think that it's going to be a very important year for Latin America...

[Lumine]

Since certain things relevant to the Presidential race keep happening, here's a small update:

March 28-April 7:

-President Piñera's approvals climb to 38% (from 34% last survey), the polls indicate that he is viewed as capable and energetic, but with an absolute lack of perceived empathy and respect towards his person (mostly due to his various malapropisms).

-The Minister of Education, Harald Beyer, suffers an impeachment accusation and loses a 58-56 vote in the Chamber of Deputies. Now suspended of his office, he depends on a Senate vote to save his political career. Should he be impached, he would be the third public servant to suffer such a fate since 1990 (the others being Minister of Education Yasna Provoste five years ago, and a Supreme Court Judge in the 1990's).

-The MAS (Movimiento Amplio Social, a small left wing party), leaded by Senator Alejandro Navarro gives his support to Former President Bachelet. She is now supported by the PS (Partido Socialista), PPD (Partido por la Democracia) and the MAS.

-After weeks of negotiations, Andres Allamand and Laurence Golborne agree to have two televised debates before the June Primaries, one in April and the second in June.

-Independent Franco Parisi is close to the 15.000 signatures, and he now stands a chance to qualify for the first round. The other independent, Tomas Jocelyn-Holt, accused the Liberal Party (which used to support him) of stealing/burning his signatures, and he wows to fight back.

[Lumine]

Where Beyer is being impeached?
Since he is Education minister, does it has to do with the disaster that is higher education?

Where? Well, our constitution has the "Acusacion Constitucional", a system similar to the impeachment in the United States. The Chamber of Deputies provides an accusation in the form of a "libel", which then is voted. Should the libel pass, the Senate acts as the presiding jury, which votes on the verdict. Motives can range from abandon of duties to corruption.

In Beyer's specific case, he inherited an enormous mess with education, and so far he has been searching for new ways to improve the educational system, a long and endless task. Lately there has been a lot of trouble with "Universidad del Mar", a private university in which the board of directors took out most of the money for themselves, leaving the University bankrupt and the students with a major problem. The board has been doing that since the 1990's, but Beyer discovered the whole mess and gave an order to shut down the university.

I don't blame him for doing that, but he lacks subtlety and he is really bad at sitting on a negotiation table, so he left the students without a choice, and the have been protesting for a while. As a result, a group of deputies decided to "accuse" him, and the ranks of the Concertacion decided to go on the attack to open a firing line against the government for the election, just like the Coalicion did with Education Minister Yasna Provoste in 2008.

[Lumine]

Well, the question was "why" and not "where", but it's my fault (multitasking).

One can understand why the students are being upset.

Shouldn't the right to do instead of impeaching him would to be sue the directors (if law allows it) and taking measures to ensure that not happening again? Or even nationalizing the university and making it become a public one, instead of simply closing it?

Well, there are no such things as public universities, since the only thing we have is private universities, divided in two categories:

1.- "Traditional" Universities that receive help from the government, have a good prestige and they offer many credits or scholarships.
2.- "Private" Universities that finance themselves (Universidad del Mar being one), but they have a bad reputation, since they often prefer quantity to quality.

That said, I would favor having public universities, and the right thing to do would be to help the students not to lose their studies and putting the directors in jail. However, we have never done the right thing here in Chile... Besides, there are strong conflicts between our politicians, since several of them own parts of those universities or they profit from them. Carlos Larrain, RN President, and Presidential Candidate Jose Antonio Gomez, PRSD President, are good examples. We need to start thinking long-term, but the endless change of Ministers and camarillas surrounding the Presidents make us rush and take short term decisions that end up as disasters.

[Lumine]

I know this is not directly about election, but I'm getting confused about the length of presidential term. I understand from Bachelet and on, the term is four years. Yet why have Frei and Lagos served for six, while Aylwin for just four?

Well, the general agreement in 1988 was that the first president should only serve 4 years in power (just in case things got ugly), and then switch to six years. Aylwin was quite an efficient president, and some members of congress offered him two more years, but he refused. Then, we had Frei and Lagos serving normal terms, but at the middle of the Lagos term both the left and the right decided to switch back to four years. I'm just speculating here, but I think both sides wanted to be sure just in case they lost the 2005/2006 election (the 2000 one was incredibly close by our standards).

[Lumine]

I know this is not directly about election, but I'm getting confused about the length of presidential term. I understand from Bachelet and on, the term is four years. Yet why have Frei and Lagos served for six, while Aylwin for just four?

Well, the general agreement in 1988 was that the first president should only serve 4 years in power (just in case things got ugly), and then switch to six years. Aylwin was quite an efficient president, and some members of congress offered him two more years, but he refused. Then, we had Frei and Lagos serving normal terms, but at the middle of the Lagos term both the left and the right decided to switch back to four years. I'm just speculating here, but I think both sides wanted to be sure just in case they lost the 2005/2006 election (the 2000 one was incredibly close by our standards).

Thanks. I understand Aylwin operated under very transitional circumstances then (quite understable, given the situation, he he did very well).

Aylwin has the potential to be the most interesting Chilean politician from the 90's (along with Senator Francisco Javier Errazuriz): He was a powerful Christian Democrat leader during the 70's, and he was one of the most vocal opponents of Allende, even supporting the military coup. Then, he became the leader of the Concertacion and he used his skill to make them won the 1989 Election by a greater margin than expected. Pinochet (by then only Commander-In-Chief of the Army) scared him a couple of times with some threats, but somehow the developed a working relation with him and he managed to surpass all obstacles (Informe Rettig, Senator Guzman's murder, the impeachment of a Supreme Court Justice, Erich Honecker's exile, etc).

[Lumine]

Thank you very much, Kalwejt! Still, I think that a poster by the name of Ichabod is also from Chile, it would be great if he could provide us with an objetive view about local politics (unlike mine). Still, I never have the chance to have a prolonged discussion about Chilean politics, so I really enjoy writing about it...


Oh, a small update:

April 7 - April 13:

-A massive gruop of university students makes a call to begin the general movilization for 2013. A pacific protest march is called for Thursday 11, and despite several fights in Santiago that result in 6 Carabineros (policemen) wounded, the march is called a big success, thanks to the thousands of students that arrive.

-President Piñera makes an open call to abandon populist policies, stating that they could create greater fights during the presidential campaign. Unoficially, the Piñera Administration is leaving Golborne and Allamand to fight alone while they put all of their resources on the candidates to the Senate.

-The election for the Chamber of Deputies's Vicepresidency goes wild when it's discovered that Pedro Velasquez (Ind - Supported by the government and the independents) embellezed funds while being mayor a few years ago. Despite controversy, he wins the vote.

-Minister Beyer will face the impeachment vote by the Senate on Wednesday. a scandal arises when is discovered that the Deputies from the opposition plagariazed several "Impeachment libels" from previous cases, even stating several wrong laws.

-Former Deputy Tomas Jocelyn-Holt faces a massive surge on signatures to launch his independent campaign: He has 22.000 already and he has until August to get the 37.000 he requires.

-The PPD and PS formally announce Former President Bachelet as their Presidential Candidate.

[Lumine]

And the madness in Chilean Politics Continues:

April 13 - 23:

-Harald Beyer loses the impeachment vote (20-18) on the Senate and he is removed from post, while also being barred to hold public office until 2018.
-President Piñera shows great disappointment at the opposition (he and Beyer had a great relationship), and he appoints his most popular Minister, Carolina Schmidt (Minister of SERNAM, which could mean "Women's Affairs") to Education.
-The Communist Party (PC) is currently having serious infighting between supporters of Bachelet and supporters of Jose Antonio Gomez, the PRSD Candidate. Party President Guillermo Teiller and Camila Vallejo (who will go to the Chamber of Deputies Election) support Bachelet, and most of the regional councilors support Gomez.
-Former President Bachelet has been heavily criticized by both the Coalicion and Concertacion for keeping silence on Beyer's impeachment, specially when she lost an Education Minister in a similar situation.

[Lumine]

Major surprises happened in the last days:

April 23-29:

-Several scandals for the Coalition happened in a very short period of time: The 2012 Census was discovered to have been manipulated, which caused the resignation of the of the INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) Director.

-Two big scandals came out against Laurence Golborne: The first one revealed some instances of corruption while he was CEO of Cencosud, and the second one revealed that he had large amounts of money in foreign accounts.

-UDI (Union Democrata Independiente) called for an emergency meeting this day, and Laurence Golborne chose to withdraw from the race. Since the primary candidates have to enter the race before April 30th, UDI has to either choose a compromise candidate for tomorrow, or decline the Primaries with RN and choose a candidate which will fight in the first round.

[Lumine]

April 23-29: (Continuation)

-After 30-45 minutes of debate, UDI chose their next candidate. Despite some party leaders suggesting Minister Evelyn Matthei (former Senator and Pre-Presidential Candidate in 1993), they chose Economy Minister Pablo Longueira, former Senator and former UDI Chairman, who is believed to have been the key to the electoral success of UDI (strongest single party in Chile). Longueira is disliked (and in some cases hated) by the left, but very popular with UDI and several centrists and independents.

-Alfredo Sfeir Younis, Economist and President of the Zambuling Institute for Human Transformation, is proclaimed Presidential candidate by the Ecologist Party (PE).

Current State of the Race:

Concertacion:
Michelle Bachelet (PS-PPD-MAS)
Andres Velasco (IND)
Claudio Orrego (DC)
Jose Antonio Gomez (PRSD)

Coalicion:
Andres Allamand (RN)
Pablo Longueira (UDI)

Independents:
Tomas Jocelyn-Holt (IND, ex-DC)
Franco Parisi (IND)

Others:
Marco Enriquez Ominami (PRO)
Claude Marcel (PH)
Alfredo Sfeir Younis (PE)
Roxana Miranda (PI)

Parties without nominee:

PRI (Partido Regionalista Independiente) and PC (Partido Comunista).


First Round Predictions:

Using some polls, previous knowledge of Chilean politics and the opinions of several candidates and experts, the field in the First Round should work out like this:

Strong Candidates:

Bachelet: 45-55%
Allamand/Longueira: 33-35%
Parisi: 10-15%
Ominami: 8-12%

Weak Candidates:

Jocelyn-Holt: 1-2%
Marcel: 1-2%
Sfeir Younis: 1%
Miranda: 1%

[Lumine]

Thanks for these updates.

Thanks to you!

And:

April 29-May 2:

-Despite the fact that Longueira is only popular with the right (and several lower income sectors in which his party has it's power base), and despised by both the left and the Chilean businessmen, several members of the Coalicion seem to think that, unlike Golborne (who was populist and anti-goverment), Longueira can appeal to broad sides of RN and UDI, thus making the primaries (which he finally entered) still competitive.

-RN ends up being the only party to hold primaries to the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. UDI decided not to use them, and the Concertacion-PC-MAS deal was cancelled when the PRSD (Partido Radical Social Democrata) demanded an extra Senate seat right before the deadline for the Primaries.

-PRI and the Partido Liberal (6-7% of the electorate, mostly centrists) decided not to join the "Opposition Pact" formed by the Concertacion, MAS and PC. It's possible that they might join in an Alliance, but it remains to be seen.

[Lumine]

Who do you believe with most chances in the Coalition Primaries, Allamand or Longueira? Once Golborne is (surprisingly) out, previous polls suggest that Bachelet might have an easier race, but it's too soon to say anything, of course. May I bet for Longueira, given that UDI has a stronger party structure, or do you think that Allamand will fight hard?

Hmmmm... I would give Longueira the edge, since he can get out the UDI vote and use their financial and logistical advantages to the maximum level. However, UDI lacks the necessary self-confidence to win a Presidential Primary, and this might pose a big problem in the primaries. So far, this is their Presidential history:

1989: No Candidate.
1993: Manuel Feliu, a businessman they backed, got defeated in a Convention with RN.
1999-2000: The strong campaign of Mayor Joaquin Lavin launches UDI to the real national stage, but they narrowly lose the Second Round against Lagos.
2005-2006: Lavin goes again, and he fights against Sebastian Piñera in the First Round. Piñera defeats Lavin in an upset, and UDI's self-confidence is absolutely destroyed.
2009-2010: Piñera runs again, nobody wants to challenge him from the right.
2013: Golborne runs and ends up in an epic fail.

Thus, and even if Longueira is the strongest candidate they've got, they can only win if they truly believe they can win. In 1993, RN and UDI backed Senator Arturo Alessandri Besa, but they abandoned him right away once the polls didn't look good (they even took away his funding so they could spend more in local races). Allamand's has an enthusiastic and efficient campaign, and if he can convince UDI that they can't win with Longueria, it's game over.

Now, the real problem for the Coaltion is that both candidates won't be able to overcome Bachelet because of some flaws: Both of them are disliked by the Chilean businessmen, Allamand lacks charisma, and Longueira, while charismatic and empathic, is too right wing in social issues to be electable. Piñera won in 2009 because of the fatigue of the Concertacion and his "moderate message", and they can't use that message since they are fighting Bachelet, and the Piñera legacy is viewed as negative (I disagree, but that's my opinion).

[Lumine]

May 2-May 10:

-Michelle Bachelet has suffered from heavy fights among the members of the Concertacion, who finally refused to establish primaries for the Parliament. Andres Velasco almost withdrew from the Presidential Primaries, and internal polling shows up that Bachelet's support has fallen from 55-60% to about 45%, all in two months. Another polls shows up that Bachelet will win the primary with about 60% against Velasco (10%), Gomez (5%), and Claudio Orrego with 15% (up from 6-7% in February Polls).

-Longueira has started a strong campaign to overcome Allamand, and while the left and the center have criticised him for his support of Pinochet, polls show him with 34% against Allamand's 32% in the Coalicion Primary.

-Franco Parisi finally reached the 37.000 signatures required to qualify for the first round. Tomas Jocelyn-Holt comes behind with 25.000-30.000 signatures, and Roxana Miranda and Alfredo Sfeir Younis have begun the collection of signatures. Ominami and Claude would also qualify due to the support of Partido Progresista (PRO) and Partido Humanista (PH).

-After a long time of silence, President Piñera gave a radio interview in which he confessed to be "tired of getting his butt kicked from all sides" (my own translation for "a mi me dan como caja todo el santo dia"), and stated that he is entitled to him own opinion about his administration.

-May 10th: A judge rules that Michelle Bachelet can be legally accused of the deaths of several chileans during the 2012 Earthquake, due to negligence. The possibility of a trial was brushed off by several leaders of the Concertacion, who believe that this would be nothing more than a political trial.

[Lumine]

-May 10th: A judge rules that Michelle Bachelet can be legally accused of the deaths of several chileans during the 2012 Earthquake, due to negligence. The possibility of a trial was brushed off by several leaders of the Concertacion, who believe that this would be nothing more than a political trial.

What can you say us about the judge who accepted the lawsuit? Those who were the plaintiffs?

As far as I know, Judge Daniel Urrutia is quite young, and somewhat liberal. He has been involved in some important cases, but he is virtually unknown. The group that launched the lawsuit is quite serious about it, and they have been since 2010 (they are the families of several chileans who died in coastal towns). However, there are many doubts about the lawyer behind them, Raul Meza, since he is a member of UDI. There are some rumors about him being quite corrupt, but they remain rumors. To be honest, both sides lack credibility...

[Lumine]

I decided to wait a few weeks to see how the first part of the primary race unfolded:

May 10-June 6:

-The Concertacion and the Coalition managed to organize debates for their respective primaries: The Concertacion debate (Bachelet v. Gomez v. Velasco v. Orrego) is set for June 10, and the Coalicion debate (Allamand v. Longueira) will be on June 13.

-General Controversies: Several candidates have been attacked in some way: A college student spit at Bachelet at a rally in Arica, eggs were thrown against Longueira in Concepcion and Franco Parisi recieved several death threats.

-Concertacion: Since Bachelet's victory in the primary is a foregone conclusion (despite the fact the she has lost a lot of support lately), the remaining candidates have fiercely fought for the second spot, so they can remain a viable option of leadership. Senator Gomez tried to turn left by asking the PC to support him, but the communists decided to back Bachelet. Thus, Gomez spent most of his political capital, and Bachelet had to go to the left instead of the center. Velasco and Orrego have tried to win the more conservative vote, and while Velasco is quite relaxed about the process, Orrego and the DC know that unless they get second place, the Concertacion might become too left wing for them.

-Coalicion: Allamand has tried to lead a modern style campaign with several "creative" (some say childish, other say creative) ads, rallies and barnstorming the big cities, in the hopes that increased turnout will help him. Longueira has tried by bus tours, rallies and a promotion of his social record. On a different note, Laurence Golborne was offered to be ambassador before OCDE or a senate candidate, but lack of support in the UDI (which he harshly criticised) made those options impractical.

-The Government: Now considered a lame duck due to the Presidential race, President Piñera's approval ratings have skyrocketed and he hit 40% for the first time since 2011. Despite his best attempts to remain out of the Presidential race, Ministers Luciano Cruz Coke (Culture, former actor and the most popular minister) and Joaquin Lavin (MIDEPLAN, and former presidential candidate) resigned today to join the Allamand (Cruz Coke) and Longueira (Lavin) campaigns. Piñera's gambit with Carolina Schmidt as the Education Minister ended up an epic fail, since her approval ratings went from 72% to 36% in a month.

-The rest: Roxana Miranda, the social activist, managed to legalize the Partido Igualdad, so she will go to the first round, already joining Ominami and Parisi. Tomas Jocelyn-Holt, Alfredo Sfeir Younis and Marcel Claude still need to get enough signatures.

[Lumine]

Primary Time!

After months of intense campaigning, Golborne going down in flames and Bachelet under heavy fire from everywere primaries are here! Polling (unreliable in Chile unless its a close election like 1999-2000) shows a massive Bachelet victory (with 75%) and a narrow victory of Allamand v. Longueira. I will finally be able to vote (since I turned 18 in April), and despite my new found sympaties for Velasco and Orrego, I'll vote for Allamand here.

Since the results will start coming in a few more hours, I'll try to explain Part II of the Primary:

June 7-June 30:

In general: Turnout expected to be 10%, polling scarse and unrelaible. Concertacion changes name to "Nueva Mayoria" (New Majority) for this election, and expect to return to the old one soon.

Debates: There were four of them:
-Concertacion 1: Gomez had an epic fail attacking Bachelet to win the hard left vote, she won.
-Concertacion 2: Bachelet silent, Gomez ignored, and a round between Velasco and Orrego to win the center, filled with references to both to them beign supposed "sell-outs" to the right.
-Coalition 1 and 2: No surprises, Longueira and Allamand chose to play nice and even their supporters were bored.

Propaganda: At the last moment congress approved a law allowing TV commercials to be shown on TV, but due to time only two days of propaganda were allowed. As a results, candidates relied on using online videos. Bachelet showed her record, Gomez and Velasco his proposals, Orrego appealed to the old strengths of the DC, Allamand used the muppets and Star Wars (no kidding) and Longueira put foward his extensive social work in the poorer parts of Santiago (sectors that somehow are used to vote UDI).

The Government: Piñera stopped caring. Attacked from all sides, he decided to stay out of the race and only promote the primaries as a democratic mechanism (probably because the use of primaries would have saved his 1993 or 1999 campaigns).

Students: Back on the streets, trying to get the attention of the candidates. They even captured 28 schools that were to serve as voting places, and the police had to get them out (most of the time in a nice way, though).

[Lumine]

2% in:

Bachelet: 71,68%
Velasco: 13,10%
Orrego: 8,92%
Gomez: 6,28%

Allamand: 50,97%
Longueira: 49,02%

[Lumine]

During the afternoon the results where quite clear: Bachelet had won a landslide. Still, the Allamand/Longueira battle was very close, until Longueira pulled off some sort of upset against Allamand, who was expect to win a close battle. RN and the DC are devastated, UDI is energized, and I'm screwed and without a candidate, since Longueira is too far to the right for me.

Still, with 92% of the vote already in, here are the final results:

Bachelet: 73,76%
Velasco: 12,52%
Orrego: 8,70%
Gomez: 4,99%

Allamand: 48,89%
Longueira: 51,10%

[Lumine]

According to Wikipedia the final results are:

Nueva Mayoría:

Bachelet (PS) 73.05%; Velasco (IND) 13%; Orrego (DC) 8.87%; Gómez (PRSD) 5.06%.

Also, there are results by region. Bachelet got a 65% in the Santiago Metropolitan and around 73% in Valparaíso and Antofagasta, whereas in the rest of regions percentages raise to 80% in many cases. Velasco performed well in the Metropolitan (17.77%), Antofagasta (14.2%) and Valparaíso (12.96%) and Obrego only breaks 10% in the Metropolitan region.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primarias_presidenciales_de_la_Nueva_Mayor%C3%ADa_de_2013#Resultados

Alianza: Longueira (UDI) 51.37%; Allamand (RN) 48.62%.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primarias_presidenciales_de_la_Alianza_de_2013#Resultados


Around 3 million of Chileans voted in the primaries, more than 2.1 million for the Concertación candidates. Bachelet got more votes than the addition of all her Concertación opponents and the Alianza candidates. Orrego and Gómez stated that they are at the disposal of Bachelet, but Velasco said that he's going to vote for her but he won't call his voters to do so. Predictably, most of Velasco's supporters will vote for Bachelet and very few for Longueira.

On the other hand, Bachelet is endorsed by the Communist Party and the student leader Camila Vallejo changed her initial opposition and now supports the Concertación candidate. Nevertheless, in the PC and especially in the student movement there are many critics and Bachelet will have to work hard, and her promises on structural reforms convincing enough, to attract all the left to her side.  Also, Bachelet will have to do balances with the Christian Democracy, very weakened with the result, which is remiss to have the communists in the government. PC subordinates entering in a government pact to the definitive draft of Bachelet's program. The PC and the DC, aside from being traditional adversaries, support opposite positions in questions like abortion or marijuana decriminalization. Vallejo stated that making alliances with the DC hurts her stomach a bit.

Indeed, Vallejo lost quite a bit of credibility after endorsing Bachelet, and the DC can't stand her. They can't stand the right either, so the DC is going to have a lot of problems from now on, with or withour Bachelet. Velasco managed to "win" in the sense that he came in second, he won a lot of prestige and he has the chance to return in 2017, while Gomez is outright finished (and humilliated) and Orrego... well, he can't do anything as long as the DC grows weaker and weaker.

By how much is Bachelet running ahead of Longueira in the general election ?

60-40 ?

70-30 ?

There are no polls as of yet (and polling here is always wrong), but I'd say 65-35 in a Second Round. The First Round depends on the alternative candidates now.

It is me, or that election is looking like it will be very boring?

Well, it depends. While it is true that Allamand was the only one with the appeal to make it close (not win, but at least give us another 1999-2000), Longueira is not to be underestimated. Unlike Arturo Alessandri Besa in 1993 (who lacked political support) or Hernan Büchi (not really interested in the Presidency), Longueira is a far better campaigner that Bachelet (but she would destroy him in a debate), so we won't be seeing his campaign collapse and slip behind 30%. As long as the "alternative" candidates bleed Bachelet in the first round (since Longueira will lose votes only to Parisi and perhaps Jocelyn-Holt, and Bachelet will have four or six candidates fighting the left wing vote), Longueira can claim victory by forcing a second round that he will lose anyway.

[Lumine]

If Bachelet becomes able to get a Constituent Assembly to make reforms, including political system, would coalitions break-up? If UDI refused to support him and if DC failed to get Concertacion nominee in 2009, Piñera could have ran as centrista in coalition with DC.

That is surely a fascinating scenario, and nothing would help the country more than breaking the Coalitions and ending the Binomial Parliamentary system, but there are a few problems to create a centrist coalition in Chile... RN would not mind brokering an alliance with DC (they even tried one in 2010 with the PRSD, and they were social democrats), but the DC... They have used anti-right rethoric for the past 32 years and their own right-wing (los "Colorines") were obliterated by Bachelet.

Still, there are two possible scenarios for that to happen:

1.- DC breaks up and the binomial is out: Then you might have an RN willing to create a centrist pact to counter the influence of the left and UDI.
2.- Evolucion Politica, a newly created centre-right (and liberal) movement gains strength and successfully pushes RN and DC to the center. (This one depends on how well they manage to do in congress this year)

[Lumine]

I think it was the right the most opposed to put an end to the Binomial Parliamentary System, which is in fact the cause of the polarization between the two coalitions. Don't you think people like Piñera (who was opposed to Pinochet in the past) or 'reformists' in a similar line would fit well with DC?

They would, yes (Piñera wanted to join the DC in 1988, but he wanted a position of power in the party and they refused him), but after more than twenty years of harsh rhetoric from both sides, a coalition with them would be hard to create. Still, if the DC continues to lose power, if Bachelet grows closer with the Communist Party, and if UDI proves too much of a tyrant for the liberal right he just defeated, it is possible. But it requires the right moment and place.