Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Massachusetts is having a special election for the 12th Bristol seat, vacated by former Rep. Stephen R. Canessa. It's a gerrymandered abomination created for the sole benefit of Canessa, consisting of incredibly Republican territory in the north (65–70% Brown) and incredibly Democratic territory in the south (59% Coakley). Why, just look at the ugly little beast:



The Mass GOP thinks they have a chance here with low turnout in the New Bedford slugs, especially since Democrats have a weak slate without a candidate from that area. Former State Rep. George Rogers (D-New Bedford) predicts a GOP pickup.

Primary: August 23
General: Sept. 20

If the GOP can win this seat, their prospects for holding it post-redistricting are good. New Bedford is currently split amongst 4 state legislative districts, but that cannot continue -- realistically, it should only support 2. The town actually lost population while the more Republican areas surrounding it grew, so trends here are actually good for Republicans. Already, House redistricting chair Rep. Michael Moran is saying the district cannot sustain its current six-town composition, regardless of who wins. (State redistricting law mandates towns not be divided between districts unless absolutely necessary.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Who was Canessa's predecessor? I remember pretty distinctly he was elected at the same time as Carl, in 2004, because he was a young vote for gay marriage replacing someone who was against it.

Ah. Okay, so, I messed up the timeline a bit -- Canessa came along in 2004, not 2002.

In 2002, Mark A. Howland (D-Freetown) won the general election, after beating incumbent Rep. George Rogers (D-New Bedford) in the primary. Howland lost a primary to Canessa in 2004, and then lost a general election race to him as an Independent in 2006.

General Election Results
2002: Mark A. Howland (D), unopposed
2004: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
2006: Stephen R. Canessa (D), 69%; Mark A. Howland (I) 31%
2008: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
2010: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is probably not leading to a special election, but, sigh, NJ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/08/nj_legislator_resigns_over_wifes_race_rant.php?ref=fpblg

There will be a special election, but it will be scheduled for the same day as the Nov. general election.

Safe R anyway, barring a tectonic anti-GOP wave this November.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My attempt at drawing the district in DRA based on the map on wikipedia has it as a 54% Obama and 50/50 average district. Now matching maps with NJ precincts is tough, and I don't know how it changed in redistricting, but I am interested in the numbers on the current seat.

Republicans have a phenomenal Burlington County machine, Democrats don't. It's the reason why the county is entirely dominated by Republicans at the local/county level.

The 8th District redraw is ... weird, to say the least. It keeps the strongly performing GOP territory in Burlington (District 7 has the Democratic half of Burlington), while adding a sole town in Atlantic, and a couple ugly bits of Camden County.

Doing the math:
Parts of old District 8: 175,825
Hammonton (Atlantic Co., 55% McCain): 14,791
Camden County (58% Obama): 28,482

Democrats never got more than 39% of the vote in the old District 8, even when a party-switching incumbent Senator was running for re-election. If they couldn't get to 40% in the old district, I just don't see how they'll ever get to 50% in the new one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I need to do a district-by-district analysis of the NJ map. We're only a few months out from the election, and these things could use some handicapping.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's still not good news for Democrats in the state that Republicans now have 33 in the House. Massachusetts Dems should have motivated voters for the seat seeing at how successful they were with their GOTV effort last Fall. Orrall is quite Conservative, even for the standards of a Massachusetts Republican.

Turnout in New Bedford was abysmal. In addition - it seems to me that voters in many parts of US, are of anti-incumbent mood now. In Republican-dominated New Hampshire they vote Democratic in one special after another (the only exception was - well, an exception, with "nonstandard" Republican candidate), in heavily Democratic-dominated (and scandal-plagued, mostly - with Democratic officeholders) they seem to inclined to "punish" them at least a little. Possibly - combination of both...

Democrats were a victim of their own redistricting map. Parts of Middleboro and Lakeville, two of the most Republican towns in Massachusetts (both were among a select few that voted for Kerry Healey in 2006), were crammed into a district dominated by New Bedford. In a normal election, New Bedford keeps the GOP out of the game.

Predictably, Orrall won every town in the district except for New Bedford (though Taunton was close), which she lost by 3:1. The problem for Democrats was that New Bedford's turnout was an abysmal 11%, while Lakeville, which Orrall won by 3:1, turned out at a 29% rate. That right there was game, set, match.

It would seem that the parts of Massachusetts that should be electing Republican state reps finally are. This should make a large number of conservative Democrats -- many of whom need to run a good 20 or 30 points ahead of the GOP nominee for governor to win -- nervous. And I Think you'll see that when the redistricting maps get released in the coming months.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Republicans won a special election for the 12th Essex District (parts of Peabody) in Massachusetts today. The seat became open when Democratic Rep. Joyce Spiliotis died of cancer earlier this year.

Twelfth Essex
Cole (R) - 1,878
Dunne (D) - 1,805
Gravel (I) - 1,654

http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/16714/republican-cole-wins-peabody-special-state-rep-election

Leah Cole is a 24-year-old nurse with no past political experience.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

That's not something I'd say is for sure, since this is the type of district that voted for Brown and Baker. Seats like this have a tendency to stay in Republican hands, at least until the inevitable retirement happens.