Tokyo prefectural election, July 2 2017

[jaichind]

WOO! Dems win their first seat!

Ironically it is in a 2- seat district where the de facto TPFA-DP tag team squeezed out LDP is a part of the LDP 2- seat meltdown.

[jaichind]

I can count 3 2- seat districts there LDP managed to win a seat, surving the TPFA onslaught.  In 6 2- seat district they have failed .  6 more to be called.

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 83 out of 127 called

TPFA        45
TPFA(Ind)   3
KP           17
LDP           9
JRP            0
DP             1
SNT           0
JCP            8

Asahi  now has it at with 89 out of 127 called   (JRP wins a seat)

TPFA        44
TPFA(Ind)   4
KP           19
LDP         14
JRP            1
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            8

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 83 out of 127 called

TPFA        45
TPFA(Ind)   3
KP           17
LDP           9
JRP            0
DP             1
SNT           0
JCP            8

Asahi  now has it at with 95 out of 127 called   

TPFA        45
TPFA(Ind)   4
KP           20
LDP         14
JRP            1
DP             1
SNT           0
JCP          10

[jaichind]

In 3rd North Tama 3- member district it is TPFA backed Ind (33.6%), KP (22.6%), JCP (20%) and LDP (19.5%) 4th place and out of a seat.  Wow.

[jaichind]

In the 1- seat district seats it is TPFA 6 LDP 1, just like I predicted.

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 87 out of 127 called

TPFA        46
TPFA(Ind)   3
KP           17
LDP         11
JRP            0
DP             1
SNT           0
JCP            9

Asahi  now has it at with 98 out of 127 called  (KP closing in on 23 seat clean sweep)

TPFA        47
TPFA(Ind)   4
KP           22
LDP         15
JRP            1
DP             1
SNT           0
JCP          12

[jaichind]

I made a bold call in the 2- seat district 文京(Bunkyo) that JCP will win the second second over LDP due to anti-LDP tactical voting.  Looks like I am short, slightly.  Right now with most votes in it seems to be TPFA 44% LDP 28.1% JCP 27.9%.  I missed by 0.2%.

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 96 out of 127 called

TPFA        48
TPFA(Ind)   3
KP           20
LDP         14
JRP            0
DP             1
SNT           0
JCP          10

Asahi  now has it at with 104 out of 127 called   

TPFA        48
TPFA(Ind)  4
KP           22
LDP         16
JRP            1
DP             1
SNT           0
JCP          12

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 107 out of 127 called  (KP 23 seat clean sweep called)

TPFA        49
TPFA(Ind)   6
KP           23
LDP         16
JRP            0
DP             1
SNT           0
JCP          13

Asahi  now has it at with 118 out of 127 called   

TPFA        49
TPFA(Ind)  6
KP           22
LDP         20
JRP            1
DP             2
SNT           0
JCP          18

JCP seat count might end up close to LDP

[jaichind]

It seems out of the 15 2- seat districts LDP only won 6 seats with 1 not called.

[jaichind]

In 4rd North Tama 2- member district it is TPFA (32.3%), JCP (24.4%) TPFA backed independent (ex-DP) (22.6%) and LDP (20.8%).  LDP driven to 4th place.

[jaichind]

There were a lot of armature projections that had LDP being beaten badly in the 2- seat districts.  But those same projections had KP not getting 23 seats.  At least in terms of KP seat count I won that battle of projections against those projections even as I was way off in the 2- seat districts.

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 117 out of 127 called  (DP surge in the densely populated districts)

TPFA        49
TPFA(Ind)   6
KP           23
LDP         18
JRP            0
DP             5
SNT           0
JCP          16

Asahi  now has it at with 123 out of 127 called   

TPFA        49
TPFA(Ind)  6
KP           23
LDP         21
JRP            1
DP             5
SNT           0
JCP          18

[jaichind]

LDP will end up in the low 20s, worse than the average exit poll.  Look for massive upheaval in LDP.  Anti-Abe forces will now emerge from their slumber to openly call for his head.

[jaichind]

Best guess right now is LDP will end up with 23 seats.

[jaichind]

It seems the LDP vote held up well in the 5- 6- and 8- heavy densely populated districts but got smashed in the 1- 2- 3- 4- member districts.  Exactly the opposite of what I expected.

[jaichind]

All 15 2- member district called.  LDP ended up with just 6 seats.  And 4 of them were with winning margins of around 1% or less.  LDP was within a 1% swing/tactical voting of a total meltdown.

[jaichind]

In 4- seat 品川(Shinagawa) district it was a total LDP nomination screw-up.  It is

TPFA  19.8%  elected
TPFA  17.6%  elected
KP      16.0%  elected
JCP     14.2%  elected
LDP    12.2%
DP      10.7%
LDP     9.7%

[jaichind]

Another LDP nomination screw-up  5- member 板橋(Itabashi) district

TPFA           16.9% elected
KP               16.5% elected
TPFA           15.8% elected
JCP             13.5% elected
DP              12.0% elected
LDP            11.8%
LDP            11.0%
Ind               2.7% (most likely LDP rebel)

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 122 out of 127 called   

TPFA        49
TPFA(Ind)   6
KP           23
LDP         20
JRP            1
DP             5
SNT           0
JCP          17

Asahi  now has it at with 125 out of 127 called   

TPFA        49
TPFA(Ind)  6
KP           23
LDP         22
JRP            1
DP             5
SNT           0
JCP          18

[jaichind]

Turnout at 51.27%

[jaichind]

Most likely Abe will survive this but will most likely be weakened to the point where one can now doubt his Constitutional change project.  Most likely he will lead LDP into the next election but unless he does very well there he will be gone soon after that.

[jaichind]

The 2 seats uncalled are a LDP vs JCP slot (JCP slightly ahead) and a LDP vs DP slot (LDP slightly ahead). 

[jaichind]

The 3- seat districts are a shocker.  There are 7 of them and it was "obvious", at least to me, that it will be TPFA LDP KP for all 7 of them.  It ended up with TPFA KP winning a seat in each one of them.  The last slot went 5 JCP 1 DP and 1 LDP.  LDP won only 1 seat out of this bunch.  A disastrous showing way beyond the worst nightmare of the LDP.