Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[JA]

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

Arch isn't bed-wetting. People here are just taking this way too seriously. These aren't actual, raw numbers from counted ballots that say Clinton or Trump. In most instances, they are far too small a percentage of the eventual turnout to amount to anything meaningful (ie Pennsylvania). That some people think this shows anyone is winning any state is dumb.

[JA]

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

Arch isn't bed-wetting. People here are just taking this way too seriously. These aren't actual, raw numbers from counted ballots that say Clinton or Trump. In most instances, they are far too small a percentage of the eventual turnout to amount to anything meaningful (ie Pennsylvania). That some people think this shows anyone is winning any state is dumb.

So was early voting. Right? It is exactly the same.

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

It isn't bed as much as a bad version of a good model starting to get people excited for no good reason.

What's the difference between early voting thread?

What you did there, was projecting as well, no?

You didn't read the post. 

Yes, I did. Early voting thread also made people "to get people excited for no good reason."

It is exactly the same.

I'm not sure what Arch's activities were on that thread, but I know that I invested nothing in those numbers. All they showed were early and absentee voting by party identification; that didn't prove anything to me in terms of votes for Clinton or Trump.

[JA]

I'm not sure what Arch's activities were on that thread, but I know that I invested nothing in those numbers. All they showed were early and absentee voting by party identification; that didn't prove anything to me in terms of votes for Clinton or Trump.

So you are saying, you weren't "projecting" NV, CO and VA in to Clinton's pocket based on EV. Or Florida?

This model does basically the same, but uses sophisticated algorithms. Obama used similar

Yes, that is what I'm saying.