KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Devout Centrist]

Lean R folks

[Boobs]

I will now accept my accolade.

[tmthforu94]

Marshall is the best shot to take down Kobach, hoping he can max out in the Big First and continue to improve in fundraising. He has my vote, as of now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a Lean D state with Kobach. McSally and Ernst are vulnerable due to them want to acquit Trump. Greenfield is within 6 pts

[Galeel]

Marshall wins by ~16 points, Kobach wins by ~7

[Frenchrepublican]

Marshall wins by ~16 points, Kobach wins by ~7 1 after republicans spent millions of dollars to save his ass.

[Frenchrepublican]

If it's true Trump must throw his support behind Marshall and Wagle must be pressured to drop out. If Kobach is the nominee we are looking at a possible repeat of AL-2017 or IN-2012

[HarrisonL]

Marshall should be the nominee. I endorse.

[😥]

Marshall wins by ~1612 points, Kobach wins loses by ~ 1 4

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Marshall should be the nominee. I endorse.

Game changer.

[windjammer]

I don't think Kobach can win by less than 5 points.

[MT Treasurer]

Marshall wins by 7-12% if he runs a competent campaign (big if), Kobach either loses narrowly or wins by the skin of his teeth (something like a 1% win, at best a MO-SEN 2016 "redux").

Kobach will make this competitive, no doubt whatsoever.

E: Also, I’m getting Heitkamp vibes from Bollier tbh

[brucejoel99]

I don't think Kobach can win by less than 5 points.

Do you mean that he can't win by more than 5 points? Because what you've said technically means that he'd win by at least 5 points.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't buy that Pompeo is really out. He keeps saying no, then "maybe", then no again. This will keep happening until he either enters or the filing deadline (June 1) passes.

[windjammer]

I don't think Kobach can win by less than 5 points.

Do you mean that he can't win by more than 5 points? Because what you've said technically means that he'd win by at least 5 points.

Exactly, I think he would win at least by 5 points, if he becomes the nominee of course.

[JMT]

I see why McConnell / Republican party leaders are still attempting to recruit Pompeo for Senate, but I feel like Republicans can prevent Kobach from being the nominee if they get Trump to endorse Roger Marshall in the primary. Marshall seems like a pretty generic Republican who could win in Kansas, and if he had Trump's backing, he'd have a good shot at winning the primary and retaining the seat in the general election. In this scenario, Republicans hold the seat, and Trump gets to retain a Secretary of State that he likes during an election year (it could be difficult to confirm a new Sec of State in an election year). I'm curious why Republicans haven't gone with this strategy?

[Pollster]

I see why McConnell / Republican party leaders are still attempting to recruit Pompeo for Senate, but I feel like Republicans can prevent Kobach from being the nominee if they get Trump to endorse Roger Marshall in the primary. Marshall seems like a pretty generic Republican who could win in Kansas, and if he had Trump's backing, he'd have a good shot at winning the primary and retaining the seat in the general election. In this scenario, Republicans hold the seat, and Trump gets to retain a Secretary of State that he likes during an election year (it could be difficult to confirm a new Sec of State in an election year). I'm curious why Republicans haven't gone with this strategy?

The pause with regard to Marshall also puzzles me. On paper, Marshall is the exact type of Republican McConnell wants in the Senate. Hell, he's the only Republican I can think of in recent memory who defeated an incumbent from the center in a primary.

[brucejoel99]

I don't think Kobach can win by less than 5 points.

Do you mean that he can't win by more than 5 points? Because what you've said technically means that he'd win by at least 5 points.

Exactly, I think he would win at least by 5 points, if he becomes the nominee of course.

Ah, gotcha.

[MT Treasurer]

The pause with regard to Marshall also puzzles me. On paper, Marshall is the exact type of Republican McConnell wants in the Senate. Hell, he's the only Republican I can think of in recent memory who defeated an incumbent from the center in a primary.

It also puzzles me, and the only two reasons I can think of which don’t have anything to do with Marshall himself are the late filing deadline (June 1) + primary (August 4) (which means that there’s still plenty of time for other candidates to run/be persuaded to enter the race, including Pompeo) and the fact that the last time McConnell and Trump meddled in a Republican primary in a deep red state they lost the Senate seat in said state, which is far more Republican than KS.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Marshall wins by 7-12% if he runs a competent campaign (big if), Kobach either loses narrowly or wins by the skin of his teeth (something like a 1% win, at best a MO-SEN 2016 "redux").

Kobach will make this competitive, no doubt whatsoever.

E: Also, I’m getting Heitkamp vibes from Bollier tbh

Marshall wins by Abbott-Davis margins lul

[Frenchrepublican]

I don't buy that Pompeo is really out. He keeps saying no, then "maybe", then no again. This will keep happening until he either enters or the filing deadline (June 1) passes.

Frankly with the Iran hot potato issue he is likely to remain where he is

[Frenchrepublican]

Marshall wins by 7-12% if he runs a competent campaign (big if), Kobach either loses narrowly or wins by the skin of his teeth (something like a 1% win, at best a MO-SEN 2016 "redux").

Kobach will make this competitive, no doubt whatsoever.

E: Also, I’m getting Heitkamp vibes from Bollier tbh

Marshall wins by Abbott-Davis margins lul

Yeah, Marshall would win by double digits, something like 57/42, MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Marshall wins by 7-12% if he runs a competent campaign (big if), Kobach either loses narrowly or wins by the skin of his teeth (something like a 1% win, at best a MO-SEN 2016 "redux").

Kobach will make this competitive, no doubt whatsoever.

E: Also, I’m getting Heitkamp vibes from Bollier tbh

Marshall wins by Abbott-Davis margins lul

Yeah, Marshall would win by double digits, something like 57/42, MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

muh trends = safe D ks

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently the campaign to recruit Pompeo will end.
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1214634518981828610?s=20

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Tilt D.