Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Walmart_shopper]

These are mostly just rumors, but the situation seems to be this:

- Likud is asking activists to vote for Smotrich and Ben Gvir because they are worried that they won't make it over the threshold.

- There is some confusion about Arab turnout. Some data points to an absolute turnout disaster. Some points to something similar to September 2019 numbers, which were not terrible but not enough to change the government.

- Turnout in Likud strongholds may--may --be quite low. Center left parties are feeling very good about themselves, but it isn't clear how Saar or the rest of the bloc is doing.

- We are headed for a turnout between 60 and 65 percent, barring a major turnout surge (which can happen especially in the Arab sector, which dows this). No clue what that means for everyone, but I feel like it is going to really scramble pre-election polling pretty badly.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The consensus seems to be that Meretz is in a good shape. Lapid is trying to siphon votes away from KL, Labour and Meretz to himself now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Anyone hearing the lack of gevalt from Likud? That makes me feel unconfident.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/pzelekha/status/1374368411283824644?s=21

STOP THE COUNT

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/noa_landau/status/1374413627474636807

[America Needs R'hllor]

Camille Fox, one of the exit poll people, said there's a "dramatic decision". Probably means Bibi won

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu has likely won by a reasonable strong margin.

Buh bye sweet city of gold. I'm out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long until the polls close?

[Crumpets]

Camille Fox, one of the exit poll people, said there's a "dramatic decision". Probably means Bibi won

Netanyahu has likely won by a reasonable strong margin.

Buh bye sweet city of gold. I'm out.

When you say "Netanyahu won," do you mean that he has a clear path to government formation, or just that Likud got more votes than any other party?

[Sestak]

Camille Fox, one of the exit poll people, said there's a "dramatic decision". Probably means Bibi won

Netanyahu has likely won by a reasonable strong margin.

Buh bye sweet city of gold. I'm out.

When you say "Netanyahu won," do you mean that he has a clear path to government formation, or just that Likud got more votes than any other party?

They're both thinking the former I think; "decisive result" would imply that one party/faction is the clear choice to lead government and no one other than Bibi seems in position to do that.

[PSOL]

Bibi is Dead! Long Live Bibi!

Told y’all before, the house always wins.

[Mike88]

Is there a live feed to follow the exit polls?

[Walmart_shopper]

Camille Fox, one of the exit poll people, said there's a "dramatic decision". Probably means Bibi won

Netanyahu has likely won by a reasonable strong margin.

Buh bye sweet city of gold. I'm out.

When you say "Netanyahu won," do you mean that he has a clear path to government formation, or just that Likud got more votes than any other party?

The Bibi bloc has a clear majority.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Bibi is Dead! Long Live Bibi!

Told y’all before, the house always wins.

Can you not do that? Whatever you "tell y'all" is unsupported by any real information about Israeli politics and could've been a declaration that unicorns are real just as easily, so I kindly ask you not to do this, especially as many of us are hurting.

[Hnv1]

Rumours Bibi bloc with Yamina is 61.

Also it seems Labour might be on the edge.

Also it seems that only Likud and YA in double figures

[Mike88]

Rumours Bibi bloc with Yamina is 61.

Also it seems Labour might be on the edge.

Also it seems that only Likud and YA in double figures

That doesn't seem a very clear majority for Bibi. Rumours seem to be contradictory.

[jaymichaud]

This thread:

[Mike88]

Is there a live feed to follow the exit polls?

Never mind. Found them:

https://www.mako.co.il/tv-live/Article-3bf5c3a8e967f51006.htm

https://13tv.co.il/live/

[Walmart_shopper]

Rumours Bibi bloc with Yamina is 61.

Also it seems Labour might be on the edge.

Also it seems that only Likud and YA in double figures

That doesn't seem a very clear majority for Bibi. Rumours seem to be contradictory.

Yeah if Kamil Fuchs is calling 61 seats a "decisive result" then the polling industry is an even bigger hack job than we thought. Bibi had 61 seata a year ago in exits and he lost his majority as actual results came in. So I surely hipe that they aren't on TV telling people that Netanyahu has a decisive win in hand when he in fact is swinging in the margins.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is the idea that claiming a decisive victory for Likud would depress late turnout among anti-Netanyahu voters?

[Mike88]

Turnout at 60.9% at 8pm. Minus 4.7% compared with March 2020.

[jaichind]

I assume polls close 10PM ?

[Mike88]

I assume polls close 10PM ?

Yep, just 40 minutes from now.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is the idea that claiming a decisive victory for Likud would depress late turnout among anti-Netanyahu voters?

Nah, the idea is that they are hinting at a win for Likud because they dod in fact win.

[Mike88]

Channel 12 exit poll:

31 Likud
18 YA

New Hope at 6

Anti-Bibi Bloc 59
Bibi bloc 53
Yamina 8