What will be 2018's "surprise" result(s)?

[Cactus Jack]

I could see O'Rourke or Mackler winning in a perfect storm.

[Cactus Jack]

The wave being bigger than expected and McCaskill winning reelection.

McCaskill winning reelection would not be that surprising, certainly not a shocking upset.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Hawley is actually a pretty bad candidate.

[Cactus Jack]

Actually, while I'm at it: the Democrats actually push their recent forward trend in Alaska and finally, finally unseat Dinosaur Don Young.

[Cactus Jack]

Rauner winning re-election.

This one's a keeper

I actually think this is more likely than traditional thinking would suggest.

To answer the question, Donnelly wins comfortably (>7.5%)

I could see that. Messer is as milquetoast as they come and Rokita is an implosion waiting to happen. The only candidate that would really worry me is Mike Braun.