PA PrimD: Rasmussen: Clinton With Strong Lead in Pennsylvania

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Uh, no. Most pollsters tend to UNDERRATE him. The only states he overpolled in were California and New Hampshire. Conversely look at Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Missouri...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Counting only serious polls in Ohio near the end, it was practically nailed, SUSA had Hillary up 10, PPP had her up 9. There was barely any polls from RI, the last one was Feb. 23 with Hillary up 15, below her margin but so long ago. Same deal in Vermont basically, Rasmussen had him up 24 more than a week before. Also the Rasmussen poll could've easily been accurate if the undecideds broke for Hillary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Downplay PA and make...what...Wyoming into a huge deal? Sorry but who looks silly then?

Frankly it wouldn't surprise me if Obama won more net delegates out of Wyoming than Hillary does out of Pennsylvania.

Before you laugh at that: Go take a look at the delegate numbers in Idaho and New Jersey.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There weren't several polls showing Obama within single digits?

All quite a bit before the primary. It's possible he was that close then, but Hillary closed well. Impossible to say.

Right...Rasmussen was the good poll. Not like it's being trashed by Obama supporters elsewhere or anything...

The only other polls taken out of Vermont were ARG. So Rasmussen was the only somewhat credible pollster who polled Vermont at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Actually it depends on the state. Wisconsin, Alabama, South Carolina and Missouri underestimated him. Texas, New Hampshire, California overestimated him.

Texas polls didn't overestimate him. They almost nailed it, and statistically did (MoE).