ME-01, ME-02 - Fabrizio Wizard/Hart Research Associates/AARP: Biden +23%, Biden +4%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

538 got their hands on a fuller release:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200910_ME0102.pdf

August 30 - September 5

Statewide
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Biden 54%
Trump 40%
Will not vote/will not vote for president 1%
Undecided 5%

ME-01
433 likely voters

Biden 58%
Trump 35%

ME-02
367 likely voters

Biden 49%
Trump 45%

[Dr. Arch]

It looks like Joe is going to sweep New England.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is nice to see, but keep in mind that a sample size of 367 means a margin of error of about 5%.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It looks like Joe is going to sweep New England.

I sure miss my all blue Northeast. I hope he does.

[Badger]

Sweet. fingers crossed.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Loggers, Fisherman and Iron Workers are all united for Biden.

What was the ME 01 and 02 margins in 2012? I wonder if Obama's margin was roughly the same in both. Back in the early 2000's ME-02 was a Democratic stronghold.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Loggers, Fisherman and Iron Workers are all united for Biden.

What was the ME 01 and 02 margins in 2012? I wonder if Obama's margin was roughly the same in both. Back in the early 2000's ME-02 was a Democratic stronghold.

Statewide: Obama 56-41

ME-01: 60-38

ME-02: 53-44

[Badger]

The Loggers, Fisherman and Iron Workers are all united for Biden.

What was the ME 01 and 02 margins in 2012? I wonder if Obama's margin was roughly the same in both. Back in the early 2000's ME-02 was a Democratic stronghold.

Statewide: Obama 56-41

ME-01: 60-38

ME-02: 53-44

To which ME-2 shifted to +10 Trump in 2016.That has to have been one of the biggest shifts of Any district in the country from 2012.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

New Englanders remembering again that they are New Englanders. The proud rural tradition of liberal gun-toting hippies who eat Ben & Jerry's and vegan sh!t will carry the Democrats to a full sweep here.

[MT Treasurer]

Certainly looking forward to ME-02 voting six points to the left of IA, ME voting more Democratic than CO, and Susan Collins outperforming Trump by 13 points.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Sellout Susan Collins must be very concerned.

[ProudModerate2]

Beautiful Maine.

[Sirius_]

But some internet politics guy told me ME-02 was likely/safe R because it was Trump+10 even though it only voted for Trump because of third party candidates and the Democrats won the district in 2018!

[pbrower2a]

This is nice to see, but keep in mind that a sample size of 367 means a margin of error of about 5%.

ME-02 looks fairly homogeneous as it is heavily rural and has few members of minority groups. The largest ethnic minority in Maine is...Francophones? Few blacks, Hispanics, Asians here. Probably even few LGBT by the regional average.   

[MT Treasurer]

But some internet politics guy told me ME-02 was likely/safe R because it was Trump+10 even though it only voted for Trump because of third party candidates and the Democrats won the district in 2018!

1. Trump received a majority of the vote in this district, so no, it didn’t "only vote for Trump because of third-party candidates."
2. Democrats narrowly won a much more localized House race after RCV with one of their strongest candidates of the election cycle against an underwhelming opponent. Is NE-02 less likely to flip than ME-02 because Bacon won and Poliquin didn’t?

[Chips]

I think Maine will swing wildly back to the left. Biden+9.

ME-01: Biden+21
ME-02: Trump+3

[Ferguson97]

I think Maine will swing wildly back to the left. Biden+9.

ME-01: Biden+21
ME-02: Trump+3

Bodes well for Gideon

[NOVA Green]

This is nice to see, but keep in mind that a sample size of 367 means a margin of error of about 5%.

ME-02 looks fairly homogeneous as it is heavily rural and has few members of minority groups. The largest ethnic minority in Maine is...Francophones? Few blacks, Hispanics, Asians here. Probably even few LGBT by the regional average.   

At minimum 25% of the Population identify as of French or French-Canadian ancestry and around 15% Irish-American...

White Catholic Ethnics are a huge chunk of the voters up there, so if as some other polls are indicating Biden is performing well among White Catholics, I would expect this to be the type of place where larger than normal swings might be occurring...

[Alcibiades]

The Loggers, Fisherman and Iron Workers are all united for Biden.

What was the ME 01 and 02 margins in 2012? I wonder if Obama's margin was roughly the same in both. Back in the early 2000's ME-02 was a Democratic stronghold.

Sure it was generally Democratic, but I wouldn’t say it was a stronghold in the early 2000s - Gore only won it by 1 point in 2000 (after Clinton’s very impressive +21 win in 1996, the best ever Democratic performance there).

[pbrower2a]

Biden is a devout Catholic, and Donald Trump is a devout... worshiper of himself.

Not one vote cast in 2016 matters in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Biden is a devout Catholic, and Donald Trump is a devout... worshiper of himself.

Not one vote cast in 2016 matters in 2020.

Agree with the concept that Biden will likely do quite well among White Catholic voters in 2020...

Not quite sure about the 2nd comment... if it is in reference to the ME "Ranked Voting system" or more of a general comment regarding the nature of the voters within Northern Maine and massive differences between Obama '08 / '12 performance and massive swings towards Trump in '16...

Regardless...

It might be interesting to look at how some the poorest places within the poorer Counties of Maine voted between '08 & '16... from a thread I created about the "poorer Counties by state"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267947.msg5741987#msg5741987

Also... perhaps of interest might be look at the top counties by State with % of US Veterans...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=268535.msg5737836#msg5737836

Again Northern Maine jumps up to the top of list...

"Uncle Joe" will likely win Penobscot County outright (Metro Bangor)... with massive swings in the even more heavily French / French-Canadian Mill Towns to the North (With some Native American overlaps)...

Trump's fake "Trade War" against Canada has been a bust...

Last Time I checked Trump did not deliver any of that from his '16 PRES PRIM promises...

1.) He promised Fishermen in the Pacific Northwest and Northern New England that he would protect our Fishing jobs against unfair trade policies from Canada...

2.) He promised Loggers and the Timber Industry of the Pacific Northwest and Maine, that he would protect our Timber sector against unfair trade policies from Canada...

3.) He promised the Dairy farmers of the PacNW and Wisconsin that he would protect our Dairy jobs against unfair trade policies from Canada...

4.) He promised the Cranberry farmers of Oregon, Wisconsin, and Maine  that he would protect our Dairy jobs against unfair trade policies from Canada...

5.) Not even going to go into his failed promises from '16 when it comes to the Manufacturing jobs...

Totally get the concept that Trump might be able to win ME-02, but last time I checked, wouldn't bet money either way in 2020, despite the "Fundamentals"....

Gun to head "Tossup/ Tilt Trump"in a Biden 5-7% Ntl Margin....but wild swings are not at all implausible within the District....